NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Systems Update:

We just passed the halfway point of the NFL season and DraftKings bettors are enjoying one of the best stretches of success I have seen since I started studying the betting splits a couple of years ago. In fact, it’s been a lengthy run of winning for majorities at DK, as they’ve fared well consistently since the calendar turned to October.

Typically they could only put together a couple of good weeks in a row. Bettors who love to fade the public, like me, have borne the brunt of their success in recent weeks. I’m sure you’ve seen some of the rhetoric from sportsbooks, too, claiming “unprecedented losses” and “worst week ever.” Is it reality? Will it last? Can it last? Historically I would say no, but let’s dig into the numbers to see if we can figure out the how and why.

 

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I looked at the midway betting splits systems in college football a couple of weeks ago, and while bettors were faring better than usual in 2024, they were still expectedly down. The overall results in the NFL have been a different story. However, the fact that favorites are 46-26-1 ATS over the last five weeks has a lot to do with this. 

As the DraftKings Betting Splits have taken off on VSiN over the last couple of years, I have made it a point to keep up with updates on the data and track how the majorities are doing. I have created DK Betting Splits “Systems” out of this data and offer them with the qualifying plays for each week in our popular Analytics Reports. With half the regular season down, this is an ideal time to get readers up to speed on what has happened with NFL betting splits since Week 1. 

At the end of this article, I will present the actionable systems to follow as guidance. Keep that in mind as you review these findings that the qualifying plays for these angles are listed by VSiN on the Analytics Reports each week and are updated twice each week, first on the initial Wednesday release, and second on the morning of every big Sunday slate of games.

One key concept that readers need to consider when utilizing the systems … not all of them rely on fading the public majorities, some of them are actually built on the premise of getting behind the masses, as some of these angles prove there are some spots in which the public has thrived with pro football, note No. 6 specifically.

Let’s begin by taking a look at the overall results from the 138 NFL games that have been played as of Nov. 4. You’ll see that I have added moneyline analysis to this update:

— Majority handle on point spreads: 66-65 ATS (50.4%). -5.5 units, ROI: -4.2%
— Majority number of bets on point spreads: 67-60 ATS (52.8%), +1 units, ROI: +0.8%
— Majority handle on money lines: 84-54 SU (60.9%). -14.3 units, ROI: -10.4%
— Majority number of bets on money lines: 91-54 SU (62.8%). +3.93 units, ROI: +2.7%
— Majority handle on totals: 74-59 (55.6%), +9.1 units, ROI: +6.8%
— Majority number of bets on totals: 70-61 (53.4%), +2.9 units, ROI: +2.2%

In all six categories, the majority owns a winning record! Having watched this closely from DraftKings over the last couple of years and other sources beforehand, I can tell you that this is quite unusual. 

The losses were sharp in September, but bettors have rebounded in resounding fashion since October began. In fact, these are Week 5-9 results: 

— Majority handle on point spreads: 43-28 ATS (60.6%). +9.2 units, ROI: +13%
— Majority number of bets on point spreads: 41-27 ATS (60.3%), +11.3 units, ROI: +16.6%
— Majority handle on money lines: 50-24 SU (67.6%). +12.26 units, ROI: +16.6%
— Majority number of bets on money lines: 54-19 SU (74%). +21.02 units, ROI: +28.8%
— Majority handle on totals: 40-31 (56.3%), +5.9 units, ROI: +8.3%
— Majority number of BETS on totals: 39-30 (56.5%), +6.0 units, ROI: +8.7%

In all, the majority bettors at DraftKings have picked up their performance level and are producing profits in all six metrics. Again, this is a first for me and gives me just a touch of solace for my recent brutal stretch.

As always, I like to dig deeper, so I did and came up with some even more defined angles. Here are the systems with updated language and records we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%). The number for this “super majority” in college football was closer to 80%. The record for this year has been 34-28 ATS, including 21-9 ATS backing road teams. It’s hard to see this one continuing. We will continue to recommend that if you see two-thirds of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 91-117 ATS (43.8%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors. So far in 2024, this is 20-17, but the bulk of the season’s 96 divisional games are yet to come.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same period, when the majority number of bets staked its side in a divisional game, this majority group is just 96-114 ATS (45.7%), but 20-15 ATS in 2024.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups have actually been quite sharp as this majority group is 60-50 ATS (54.5%), performing at nearly the same level in each season. This is quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference games than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 108-123 ATS (46.7%). I will tell you that there are no more than 15 games each year when this group will actually back the home dog. However, this system is 28-18 ATS for 2024, a major factor as to why bettors are doing well overall. I suspect if (or when) this turns, DK will regain the advantage.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) dating to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 78-95 ATS (45.1%) and 76-94 ATS (44.7%), respectively. This includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night and Monday night games.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022-24 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 69-56 ATS (55.2%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.

The following are some new MONEY LINE SYSTEMS we will be employing going forward…

NFL DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle has backed a team in a MONEY LINE wager but not very strongly (in the 40%-60%) range, they have really struggled in 2024, going 16-26 for -13.71 units of loss, an ROI of -32.6%. It seems that conviction is an important thing when majority groups get together. If it seems as if the DK betting public might be “guessing” as to who wins, fade it.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #10: Super-majority handle bettors of more than 75% have also struggled in games when backing bigger favorites on money lines. In games with point spreads of -4.5 or higher (approximately -225 or more ML), this super majority group has gone just 23-13 but for -15.53 units of loss, an ROI of -43.1% in 2024. Public bettors tend to look at these games as more “automatic” wagers, and as you can tell, they aren’t.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #11: Majority number of bets groups have been at their best in 2024 on MONEY LINES in the Sunday afternoon games when backing small favorites (four points or less, and approximately -220 or less). These groups boast an impressive 33-10 record for +18.93 units of profit and an ROI of +44%. These include the games in the 1:00 p.m.-4:30 p.m. ET starting slots, and with more choices at these times, bettors are faring well.

These next systems cover totals …

NFL DK Betting Splits system #12: Since 2022, the average NFL total has been right around 44 or a tick higher. Since mid-2023, majority handle bettors have been very sharp in dealing with totals at or below that number (44 or less). In fact, since November 2023, these groups have gone 97-66 (59.5%). It’s in the higher totaled games that they typically fare worse.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #13: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the UNDER in an NFL game total over the last two seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 70-52 ATS (57.4%). This number for a “super majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for number of bets has also produced a 54-39 (58.1%) record.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #14: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for the super-majority on handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022-24 with a record of 121-153 (44.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #15: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 50-74 (40.3%) over the past two-plus seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets. of 30.2%. This is an angle in which bettors tend to go away from their comfort zone and have been rewarded.

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