NFL First TD Scorer:

It is hard to believe that we are down to just seven NFL games for this season. We’ve got four this weekend, two next weekend, and then the Super Bowl on February 9. There aren’t many first touchdowns left to track, but hopefully we can finish things out on a high note.

With eight teams remaining, I’ll be altering the format a bit here for this week. I’m not going to be listing nearly as much. Instead, I’ll just list out the remaining playoff teams, how they fared last week, and some notable players for each one of them.

 

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Link to the First Touchdown Tracker.

Wild Card Weekend Results:

QB: None

RB: BUF (Cook), LAR (Williams)

WR: BAL (Bateman), DEN (Franklin), HOU (Collins), PHI (Dotson)

TE: None

Bye: DET, KC

2024-25 Results for Remaining Playoff Teams

Playoff teamsFirst TD of game/games playedSuccess rate
Ravens15/1883.30%
Eagles13/1872.20%
Lions11/1764.70%
Texans11/1861.10%
Commanders10/1855.60%
Chiefs9/1752.90%
Bills9/1850.00%
Rams6/1833.30%

Ravens: Have scored the first TD in six straight games; first WR first team TD since Week 10 last week

Eagles: Have scored the first TD in six straight games; Barkley with only one in that span (leads team with 5); have scored on first possession in 3/4 after starting 0/15 in that department

Lions: Have not scored first TD in consecutive weeks since Week 11-12 (scored first in Week 18); 12/17 first team TD from RB (Montgomery 7, Gibbs 5)

Texans: All four first team TDs since Week 14 bye (No TD in Week 16) have been WR/TE (Collins 3) after Mixon had 5/6 prior to that

Commanders: Robinson Jr. leads team with six first TDs, but hasn’t had one since Week 13; last four first team TD scorers had their first of the season; have scored the first TD in 7/8 games to this point

Chiefs: Before failing to score a TD with everybody resting in Week 18, Chiefs scored first TD in six straight games after starting the season 3/10

Bills: In seven of the Buffalo’s nine games with the first TD, they scored on their first possession; a WR has not scored the first team TD since Week 9; no TE has a first team TD yet this season

Rams: Kyren Williams has scored the first TD for the Rams in 13/18 games, including last week; after starting the season 1/10, the Rams are 5/8 since Week 12 (Williams has all of them)

Let’s get to the Divisional Round action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.

NFL Divisional Round Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024

Texans (61.1%) at Chiefs (52.9%) – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

Commanders (55.6%) at Lions (64.7%) – Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

Rams (33.3%) at Eagles (72.2%) – Sunday, 3 p.m. ET

Ravens (83.3%) at Bills (50%) – Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first TD scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.

NFL Divisional Round First Touchdown Predictions

Lines current at time of publish

Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.

Washington Commanders: Terry McLaurin +1300, Brian Robinson Jr. +1400, Olamide Zaccheaus +3000

By no means are these all one-unit plays, but there are five Lions on the board at DraftKings before the first Commander. McLaurin is the first one on the list and he does lead the Commanders with 12 catches on 14 red-zone targets for nine touchdowns. Zaccheaus, who scored first last week, is second with seven catches on eight red-zone targets.

It has been a while since Robinson has scored the first TD, but I feel like he has to be in the mix here. The Lions are coming off of the bye and I’d imagine rust could be a factor. It may not be, but in a high-variance game with two strong offenses, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to throw some darts at the Washington side. They’ve scored first in seven of their last eight games and have scored on their first possession in three of them.

Maybe these aren’t the exact three, but I think all of the potential skill guys to score are at decent prices in this market with how biased the board is towards Lions. Also, for what it’s worth, the Commanders have two other games where they scored on their first offensive possession, but didn’t get the ball first.

Philadelphia Eagles: Saquon Barkley +390, Jalen Hurts +475

These prices are decidedly less exciting, and I sure as hell didn’t see Dotson scoring first last week (+2800 this week), but the Eagles are on a good roll in this department with six straight. The defense has been a big help in their full-season number, as they went the first 15 weeks of the season without scoring on their first offensive possession, but now the offense is doing its part, too.

We’ll see if the Rams come out slow with the long trip and everything that continues to happen at home, but I would expect the Eagles to keep doing well in the first TD market like they have throughout the season. And these two have combined for nine first team TDs. A.J. Brown (3) is the only other player with more than one. Hurts has nearly as many red-zone rush attempts (49) as he does pass attempts (53), so I’ll expect him to be a weapon in short yardage if we get to that point.

Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.

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