NFL First TD Scorer
Ten weeks worth of data have been put into the First Touchdown Tracker in hopes of cashing some TD scorer prop bets here in Week 11. Some teams remain very good at scoring first. Other teams are very bad at it. Sometimes they come together and those are the opportunities that we are hoping for each and every week.
But, you can also find some good first quarter and first half betting opportunities by knowing which team’s script or defense has been good enough to find success in this arena.
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Before we look ahead, let’s look at where we are. Here are the first TD scorers by position for the season and from last week.
QB: 25 (3)
RB: 110 (8)
WR: 108 (8)
TE: 27 (3)
D/ST: 14 (1)
No TD: 20 (5)
I’m also tracking the frequent flyers of the first team TD club. Here are all the guys with the first TD for their teams at least three times this season and how many times it has been the first TD of the game.
| Top players (min. 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 7 | 1 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 5 | 4 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 4 | 4 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 4 | 4 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 4 | 3 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 4 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison (LV) | 4 | 2 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 4 | 2 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 4 | 1 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 4 | 1 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 3 | 3 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 3 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 3 | 2 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 3 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 3 | 2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 3 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle (DAL) | 3 | 1 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 3 | 1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | 3 | 1 |
| Michael Wilson (AR) | 3 | 1 |
| Justin Fields (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 3 | 0 |
There weren’t as many new additions as last week, but we also had five teams not score a TD at all.
We also had 13 offensive players score first for the first time this season (James Conner, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Devaughn Vele, Sam LaPorta, Mac Jones, Travis Kelce, Justin Herbert, Malik Washington, Ja’Lynn Polk, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jalen Hurts, Ricky Pearsall, Austin Ekeler), plus the Taron Johnson pick-six for Buffalo, so that made up half of the teams in action last week.
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results thus far in 2024:
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played |
| Ravens | 8/10 (80%) |
| Eagles | 7/9 (77.8%) |
| Vikings | 7/9 (77.8%) |
| Bengals | 7/10 (70%) |
| Cardinals | 7/10 (70%) |
| Colts | 7/10 (70%) |
| Chargers | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Lions | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Packers | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Titans | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Bucs | 6/10 (60%) |
| Falcons | 6/10 (60%) |
| Panthers | 6/10 (60%) |
| Patriots | 6/10 (60%) |
| Seahawks | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Bills | 5/10 (50%) |
| Texans | 5/10 (50%) |
| 49ers | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Dolphins | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Raiders | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Steelers | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Broncos | 4/10 (40%) |
| Bears | 3/9 (33.3%) |
| Browns | 3/9 (33.3%) |
| Chiefs | 3/9 (33.3%) |
| Cowboys | 3/9 (33.3%) |
| Commanders | 3/10 (30%) |
| Jaguars | 3/10 (30%) |
| Jets | 3/10 (30%) |
| Saints | 3/10 (30%) |
| Rams | 1/9 (11.1%) |
| Giants | 1/10 (10%) |
The Ravens failed to score first against the Bengals, but remained atop the list, as the Vikings didn’t score at all. Four teams are on byes this week – Buccaneers, Cardinals, Giants, Panthers. Three of those teams are at 60% or higher. The Giants are the worst team in the NFL.
Check out the Tracker for some more goodies.
Let’s get to the Week 11 action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
As mentioned a couple weeks ago, I’m going to be publishing this on Thursday because DK is getting slower about posting the touchdown market odds and I want to make sure as many games are available as possible.
NFL Week 11 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024
Commanders (30%) at Eagles (77.8%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Packers (66.7%) at Bears (33.3%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Jaguars (30%) at Lions (66.7%)
Vikings (77.8%) at Titans (66.7%)
Raiders (44.4%) at Dolphins (44.4%)
Rams (11.1%) at Patriots (60%)
Browns (33.3%) at Saints (30%)
Ravens (80%) at Steelers (44.4%)
Falcons (60%) at Broncos (40%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Seahawks (55.6%) at 49ers (44.4%)
Chiefs (33.3%) at Bills (50%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Bengals (70%) at Chargers (66.7%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Texans (50%) at Cowboys (33.3%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first TD scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 11 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs +400, Tucker Kraft +1100
The Packers are a dice roll. Not because I don’t think they’ll score first, but because they’ve had four different FTD scorers in the last four games. Jayden Reed leads the team with three, but they came in Week 1, 4, and 6. I have to think that Matt LaFleur & Co. have a great script ready to go coming out of the bye.
Also, what isn’t evident on the surface by Chicago’s 33.3% success rate is that they haven’t scored a TD each of the last two weeks.
I will say that WR have received 23 red-zone targets compared to the nine that Kraft has received, but that’s the most of any Packers player and so are his seven catches. The Bears have only allowed six pass TD and five are to WR. Nine are rushing TD. The defense is solid, but this is a pick against the offense and a buy on the bye week.
Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs +400, Amon-Ra St. Brown +600
The prices aren’t sexy here, but I am taking Gibbs at +400 over David Montgomery at +270. The Jaguars have allowed 12 TD to RB this season, but four are receiving and Gibbs has seven red-zone targets and five catches to 1 and 1 for Montgomery. Gibbs also only has seven fewer carries. Montgomery has eight red-zone TD, but Gibbs has five and is only three touches behind.
Jared Goff has not been shy about throwing to St. Brown in the scoring areas. He has 12 of the team’s 18 red-zone targets for WR. And he’s caught 11 of those balls with six touchdowns. Again, the prices aren’t great, but five Lions are priced shorter than the first Jaguar (Travis Etienne, +1000).
Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor +600, Alec Pierce +1400
The Colts have scored the first TD in seven of their 10 games, four more times than the Jets have. Anthony Richardson’s second-favorite target this season is Pierce, who scored the first Indy TD in Weeks 1 and 2. He hasn’t done it since, but Richardson has been practicing with the 2s and should have maintained a strong rapport with Pierce as a result.
The other has scored the first TD in six of the last seven Jets games and they’ve actually failed to score a TD at all in two of them. They haven’t scored on their first possession all season. The Colts haven’t in four straight games, but did in three straight from Week 4 to Week 6.
Taylor has had a full workload the last three weeks with 54 carries and six catches. The Jets defense has been falling in a lot of different metrics since Robert Saleh got canned. And the Cardinals, who had not scored on their first possession in four games, did so last week with James Conner’s first FTD of the season.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
