NFL First TD Scorer:
A full slate of Week 15 action means all 32 teams are up for grabs in the First Touchdown Scorer betting market. Even if we don’t hit the first scorer, the Anytime TD market, first quarter and first half lines, and some of the more exotic props are all going to be under consideration with the help of the First TD Tracker and the rest of this information.
Before digging into all of this week’s stuff, let’s recap the first touchdowns by position from last week:
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QB: 35 (3)
RB: 158 (11)
WR: 144 (10)
TE: 46 (1)
D/ST: 17 (0)
No TD: 26 (1)
It was all about backs and receivers last week, as 23 of 26 first team TDs came from the skill guys. We had back-to-back big weeks for tight ends, but that run ended. We also did not get a first score from the defense or special teams after three in Week 14.
Here are all the guys with a minimum three first team TDs and the counts of how many were the first TD in the game.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 10 | 4 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 7 | 6 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 6 | 6 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 6 | 4 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 6 | 3 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 5 | 4 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 5 | 3 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 5 | 3 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 5 | 2 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 5 | 2 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 5 | 1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) | 5 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 4 | 4 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 4 | 3 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 4 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 4 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison (LV) | 4 | 2 |
| Michael Wilson (AR) | 4 | 2 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 4 | 1 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 3 | 3 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 3 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 3 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 3 | 2 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 3 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 3 | 2 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 3 | 2 |
| Roschon Johnson (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Jonnu Smith (MIA) | 3 | 2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle (DAL) | 3 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill (NO) | 3 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 1 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 3 | 1 |
| George Pickens (PIT) | 3 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 3 | 1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | 3 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
| Justin Fields (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 3 | 0 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 3 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 3 | 0 |
For some other miscellaneous trends and nuggets:
- The Cowboys and Rams scored on their first offensive possession for the first time this season
- The Buccaneers have scored the first TD in all three games since the bye and eight of the 10 games Mike Evans has played in
- The Vikings scored the first TD in eight of their first 10 games, but have not in the last three games and have now gone six straight without scoring on their first possession
- The Rams scored first once in their first 10 games; they’ve scored the first TD in each of the last three, all by Kyren Williams
- The Panthers scored the first TD in three straight games going into the bye and have not scored first in three games since the bye
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results thus far in 2024:
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Ravens | 10/13 (76.9%) |
| Bucs | 9/13 (69.2%) |
| Cardinals | 9/13 (69.2%) |
| Colts | 9/13 (69.2%) |
| Lions | 9/13 (69.2%) |
| Packers | 9/13 (69.2%) |
| Bengals | 8/13 (61.5%) |
| Chargers | 8/13 (61.5%) |
| Eagles | 8/13 (61.5%) |
| Falcons | 8/13 (61.5%) |
| Texans | 8/13 (61.5%) |
| Vikings | 8/13 (61.5%) |
| Bills | 7/13 (53.8%) |
| Patriots | 7/13 (53.8%) |
| 49ers | 6/13 (46.2%) |
| Broncos | 6/13 (46.2%) |
| Chiefs | 6/13 (46.2%) |
| Commanders | 6/13 (46.2%) |
| Dolphins | 6/13 (46.2%) |
| Panthers | 6/13 (46.2%) |
| Seahawks | 6/13 (46.2%) |
| Titans | 6/13 (46.2%) |
| Browns | 5/13 (38.5%) |
| Raiders | 5/13 (38.5%) |
| Saints | 5/13 (38.5%) |
| Bears | 4/13 (30.8%) |
| Cowboys | 4/13 (30.8%) |
| Jaguars | 4/13 (30.8%) |
| Jets | 4/13 (30.8%) |
| Rams | 4/13 (30.8%) |
| Steelers | 4/13 (30.8%) |
Bye weeks are now over, so all 32 teams play in each of the next four weeks.
Let’s get to the Week 15 action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
As mentioned a couple weeks ago, I’m going to be publishing this on Thursday because DK is getting slower about posting the touchdown market odds and I want to make sure as many games are available as possible.
NFL Week 15 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024
Rams (30.8%) at 49ers (46.2%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Chiefs (46.2%) at Browns (38.5%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Bengals (61.5%) at Titans (46.2%)
Commanders (46.2%) at Saints (38.5%)
Ravens (76.9%) at Giants (15.4%)
Cowboys (30.8%) at Panthers (46.2%)
Jets (30.8%) at Jaguars (30.8%)
Dolphins (46.2%) at Texans (61.5%)
Colts (69.2%) at Broncos (46.2%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Bills (53.8%) at Lions (69.2%)
Steelers (30.8%) at Eagles (61.5%)
Patriots (53.8%) at Cardinals (69.2%)
Buccaneers (69.2%) at Chargers (61.5%)
Packers (69.2%) at Seahawks (46.2%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Bears (30.8%) at Vikings (61.5%) – Monday, 8 p.m. ET
Falcons (61.5%) at Raiders (38.5%) – 8:30 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first TD scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 15 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry +245, Mark Andrews +850
The biggest mismatch of the board, and maybe of the season, in the First TD department is this game. Henry is just an obvious choice, even at the short +245 price. He has 41 of the team’s 47 running back carries in the red zone and 26 more rush attempts inside the 20 than Lamar Jackson.
Finding a pass catcher is a more difficult process, but Andrews and fellow TE Isaiah Likely lead the team with 11 red zone targets. No receiver has more than seven on the season. Andrews has seen more snaps than Likely for a while now and I don’t feel like the price difference (+1100 on Likely) is worth the risk.
I will say that Tyrone Tracy Jr. is +1300 for the Giants. If they can somehow score first with Tommy DeVito, that’ll be a good number. He has five first TDs for the season and four of the last six
Arizona Cardinals: Trey McBride +1000, Michael Wilson +1200
James Conner (+370), Marvin Harrison Jr. (+800), and Kyler Murray (+900) all have shorter prices than these two, but I think we’re getting some good value on McBride and Wilson. Wilson and Harrison are tied for the team lead with four first team TDs, but Harrison only has one since Week 4.
McBride leads the team in red zone targets with 16. The wide receivers collectively have 19. Wilson leads the WR group in red zone catches with five on his seven targets.
The Patriots have only scored on their first possession once. The Cardinals have done it seven times. That makes this a worthwhile gamble to me, especially with Arizona as one of the league’s best in this department.
Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson +450, Drake London +700
I’m not going to get cute with this one. I’ll just take the two Falcons who have succeeded in this department the most. Robinson has four first team TDs and London has three as Atlanta heads into the Desmond Ridder revenge game.
The Raiders have scored the first TD just once in four games since the bye and have not scored on their first possession in any of those games. I know we all have a lot of questions about Kirk Cousins right now, but this is an objectively bad Raiders team and a team surrendering a lot of early-down success. The Falcons have struggled on third down this season, but they should be on or ahead of schedule thanks to the early downs here.
The Raiders have allowed 4.0 and 4.8 yards per carry, respectively, on first and second down and teams have a 70.1% completion rate on second down against them.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
