NFL First TD Scorer:
Three weeks remain in the regular season, but the First Touchdown Scorer article will run through the playoffs, so don’t worry, we’ll still have a lot of opportunities. Speaking of opportunities, there could be some younger players getting more looks late in the year, so that could be a chance to look down the board and take a few more gambles as you dig into this market for the remainder of the season.
Last week was good with Mark Andrews +850 and Drake London +700 from the article, so hopefully we can replicate that this week and beyond. It is a crapshoot, but hopefully you’ve been able to use the info to cash some First or Anytime TD tickets and even some first quarter and first half bets.
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Before digging into all of this week’s stuff, let’s recap the first touchdowns by position from last week:
QB: 37 (2)
RB: 165 (7)
WR: 159 (15)
TE: 51 (5)
D/ST: 17 (0)
No TD: 28 (2)
OL: 1 (1) (OL are not lined, so the Cardinals/Patriots 1st TD was likely voided at your book)
I believe 15 is the biggest week of the season for wide receivers, but this is not predictive at all. It’s mostly just to show the record-keeping and to see if anything cool would emerge. Nothing has in my opinion thus far.
Here are all the guys with a minimum three first team TDs and the counts of how many were the first TD in the game.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 10 | 4 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 7 | 6 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 6 | 6 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 6 | 4 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 6 | 3 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 5 | 4 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 5 | 3 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 5 | 3 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 5 | 2 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 5 | 2 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 5 | 1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) | 5 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 4 | 4 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 4 | 4 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 4 | 3 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 4 | 3 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 4 | 2 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 4 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 4 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison (LV) | 4 | 2 |
| Jonnu Smith (MIA) | 4 | 2 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | 4 | 2 |
| Michael Wilson (AR) | 4 | 2 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 4 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 4 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 3 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 3 | 2 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 3 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 3 | 2 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 3 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 3 | 2 |
| Roschon Johnson (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 3 | 2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 3 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle (DAL) | 3 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill (NO) | 3 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 1 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 3 | 1 |
| George Pickens (PIT) | 3 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
| Justin Fields (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 3 | 0 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 3 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 3 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 3 | 0 |
Several additions from last week. At this point, it might be wise to cut the list down to guys with four touchdowns, but there are only three weeks left, so I’ll leave it as is.
For some other miscellaneous trends and nuggets:
- Jared Goff is fourth in TD passes; last week’s Tim Patrick first team TD was just the second by a WR this season
- The Chiefs have now scored the first TD in four straight games after starting just 3/10 for the season
- Justin Jefferson’s lid-lifting score for the Vikings was his first team TD since Week 3
- The Bucs have scored the first TD in each of their four games since the bye and have scored three on their first offensive possession
- The Broncos had their first TE appear on the list; it had been WR and RB (4), QB (3), D/ST (1) and No TD (1) until Adam Trautman scored first last week
- The Jaguars and Jets scored on their first offensive possession for the first time this season; The Rams did that in Week 14 and then failed to score a TD the next week
- Tony Pollard scored the first TD for a RB since Week 4 for the Titans
- After starting 0/4 on first TDs, the Commanders have scored first in 7/10 games and each of their last four
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results thus far in 2024:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Ravens | 11/14 (78.6%) |
| Bucs | 10/14 (71.4%) |
| Cardinals | 10/14 (71.4%) |
| Colts | 10/14 (71.4%) |
| Packers | 10/14 (71.4%) |
| Eagles | 9/14 (64.3%) |
| Falcons | 9/14 (64.3%) |
| Lions | 9/14 (64.3%) |
| Texans | 9/14 (64.3%) |
| Vikings | 9/14 (64.3%) |
| Bengals | 8/14 (57.1%) |
| Bills | 8/14 (57.1%) |
| Chargers | 8/14 (57.1%) |
| Chiefs | 7/14 (50%) |
| Commanders | 7/14 (50%) |
| Patriots | 7/14 (50%) |
| Titans | 7/14 (50%) |
| 49ers | 6/14 (42.9%) |
| Broncos | 6/14 (42.9%) |
| Dolphins | 6/14 (42.9%) |
| Panthers | 6/14 (42.9%) |
| Seahawks | 6/14 (42.9%) |
| Browns | 5/14 (35.7%) |
| Cowboys | 5/14 (35.7%) |
| Jaguars | 5/14 (35.7%) |
| Raiders | 5/14 (35.7%) |
| Saints | 5/14 (35.7%) |
| Bears | 4/14 (28.6%) |
| Jets | 4/14 (28.6%) |
| Rams | 4/14 (28.6%) |
| Steelers | 4/14 (28.6%) |
| Giants | 2/14 (14.3%) |
Let’s get to the Week 16 action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Week 16 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024
Broncos (42.9%) at Chargers (57.1%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Texans (64.3%) at Chiefs (50%) – Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
Steelers (28.6%) at Ravens (78.6%) – 4:30 p.m. ET
Giants (14.3%) at Falcons (64.3%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lions (64.3%) at Bears (28.6%)
Browns (35.7%) at Bengals (57.1%)
Eagles (64.3%) at Commanders (50%)
Cardinals (71.4%) at Panthers (42.9%)
Vikings (64.3%) at Seahawks (42.9%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Patriots (50%) at Bills (57.1%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Jaguars (35.7%) at Raiders (35.7%)
49ers (42.9%) at Dolphins (42.9%)
Buccaneers (71.4%) at Cowboys (35.7%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Saints (35.7%) at Packers (71.4%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first TD scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 16 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson +280, Tyler Allgeier +900, Ray-Ray McCloud +1300
I decided to skip over the Ravens on Saturday. Lamar Jackson is 2-5 against the Steelers as a starter with a 5/8 TD/INT ratio. It doesn’t mean Baltimore can’t score first, but Pittsburgh has been one of the very few teams to keep him in check.
I couldn’t bypass the Falcons, though, even with Michael Penix Jr. taking over. There’s a heightened sense of urgency for Atlanta this week and I truly believe that OC Zac Robinson has to love the idea of having a more mobile QB. Not that Penix is a burner by any means, but his legs actually work, so that’s an upgrade over Kirk Cousins. I think the scripted play set to open the game could be successful.
Robinson was a wrecking ball last week against the Raiders and I think we could see the same here against the Giants. Something did strike me about Allgeier, though. I don’t love taking both running backs, but Allgeier’s touch-to-snap ratio is extremely high.
Allgeier has 124 total touches out of 244 snaps. Recently, he’s had 12 carries on 15 snaps, 9 carries on 13 snaps, and nine touches on 24 snaps. He had 11 carries on 18 snaps against the Saints. Maybe this is more of an Anytime TD prop, but I do think we should see a little personnel shift and maybe some two-back looks with Penix. Allgeier actually has 24 red-zone attempts compared to 38 for Robinson. I think that snap share and touch count is worthy of consideration.
On McCloud, Drake London, who scored first last week, does have 20 red-zone targets and six touchdowns. However, I feel like Penix has more of a rapport with McCloud given their higher repetition count in practice. Kirk Cousins has likely had London and Darnell Mooney, while I bet Penix has had more reps with McCloud as his primary option.
Some dart throws here, but a method to the madness.
Cincinnati Bengals: Chase Brown +330, Tee Higgins +850
Zack Moss hasn’t played since the end of October and no other running back has a red zone carry. So, the Brown play is pretty self-explanatory, as he and Ja’Marr Chase are tied for the team lead in first TDs with four.
But, instead of Chase, I’ll look at Higgins here. Chase should draw a tough assignment in Denzel Ward. Meanwhile, Martin Emerson is questionable for Cleveland as he’s in the concussion protocol. That could give Higgins an easier assignment, or at least a guy who is trying to get his legs under him. Higgins is second in red zone targets with 16, 10 fewer than Chase, though Higgins has played nine games to Chase’s 14.
The Browns started the season 3/4 in scoring the first TD. They are 2/10 since then and now turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs +260, Jayden Reed +850
Another short price on a running back, but the Packers have scored first in four of their five games since the bye and have been excellent in this department all season long. Green Bay started 2/4 and they’ve scored first in eight of the last 10 weeks. Three of those five first TDs since the bye have been on their opening possession.
Jacobs and Reed have combined for nine of the 14 first TDs and each guy has two since the Week 10 bye. Just going with what appears to be the most obvious choices here in a game where the Packers should score first with Jordan Love up against Spencer Rattler.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
