NFL First TD Scorer:
Week 18 will be a messy one in the First Touchdown Scorer market. Plenty of players are not playing and some teams may decide to not really show up either. Some of the teams that have done really well in this department throughout the season may not play everybody for long or show the full spectrum of the playbook with bigger goals in mind.
But, to me, the biggest difference this week is that guys who have maybe not made the list for their teams or haven’t found the end zone much are going to be at much shorter prices. That leaves us with a lot to navigate. Also, the sportsbooks have been very slow to post these numbers, opting to wait and see who will be out there. As a result, I’ll have to add to this as we get more clarity and more odds go up.
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Before digging into all of this week’s stuff, let’s recap the first touchdowns by position from last week:
QB: 42 (3)
RB: 183 (5)
WR: 186 (16)
TE: 58 (3)
D/ST: 19 (1)
No TD: 33 (4)
OL: 1 (1) (OL are not lined, so the Cardinals/Patriots Week 15 1st TD was likely voided at your book)
Huge week for WR to take the lead among position groups. I’m not really sure what, if anything, to make of that. But, it was a shockingly large split between WR and RB this week.
Here are all the guys with a minimum three first team TDs and the counts of how many were the first TD in the game.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 12 | 5 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 7 | 7 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 7 | 6 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 6 | 4 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 6 | 3 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 6 | 3 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 6 | 3 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 6 | 2 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 5 | 5 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 5 | 4 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 5 | 3 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 5 | 3 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 5 | 2 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 5 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison (LV) | 5 | 2 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) | 5 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 5 | 0 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 4 | 4 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 4 | 3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 4 | 3 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 4 | 3 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 4 | 3 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 4 | 2 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 4 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 4 | 2 |
| Jonnu Smith (MIA) | 4 | 2 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | 4 | 2 |
| Michael Wilson (AR) | 4 | 2 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 4 | 1 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 4 | 1 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 4 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley (TEN) | 3 | 3 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 3 | 2 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 3 | 2 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 3 | 2 |
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | 3 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 3 | 2 |
| Roschon Johnson (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 3 | 2 |
| Deebo Samuel (SF) | 3 | 2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle (DAL) | 3 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill (NO) | 3 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy (CLE) | 3 | 1 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 3 | 1 |
| George Pickens (PIT) | 3 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 3 | 1 |
| Jalen Tolbert (DAL) | 3 | 1 |
| Nick Vannett (TEN) | 3 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
| Justin Fields (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 3 | 0 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 3 | 0 |
| No Touchdown (CHI) | 3 | 0 |
| No Touchdown (NYG) | 3 | 0 |
For some other miscellaneous trends and nuggets:
- The Bills haven’t had a first TD scorer at the WR position since Week 9
- The Cowboys have not had a RB first TD since Week 9 (6 WR, 1 D/ST, 1 No TD)
- The Jaguars have scored the first TD in four straight games; they were 3/12 prior to that
- The Chiefs have now scored the first TD in six straight games after starting 3/10
- The Vikings have scored first in three straight after not doing so in three straight; they started 8/10 prior to that
- Malik Nabers scored first for the Giants last week; it was their first non-RB first TD since Week 9 and first for a WR since Week 5
- The Steelers have not scored the first TD in seven straight games
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results thus far in 2024:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Ravens | 13/16 (81.3%) |
| Bucs | 11/16 (68.8%) |
| Eagles | 11/16 (68.8%) |
| Packers | 11/16 (68.8%) |
| Vikings | 11/16 (68.8%) |
| Bengals | 10/16 (62.5%) |
| Cardinals | 10/16 (62.5%) |
| Colts | 10/16 (62.5%) |
| Lions | 10/16 (62.5%) |
| Bills | 9/16 (56.3%) |
| Chargers | 9/16 (56.3%) |
| Chiefs | 9/16 (56.3%) |
| Falcons | 9/16 (56.3%) |
| Texans | 9/16 (56.3%) |
| 49ers | 8/16 (50%) |
| Commanders | 8/16 (50%) |
| Patriots | 8/16 (50%) |
| Titans | 8/16 (50%) |
| Broncos | 7/16 (43.8%) |
| Dolphins | 7/16 (43.8%) |
| Jaguars | 7/16 (43.8%) |
| Panthers | 7/16 (43.8%) |
| Cowboys | 6/16 (37.5%) |
| Saints | 6/16 (37.5%) |
| Seahawks | 6/16 (37.5%) |
| Browns | 5/16 (31.3%) |
| Jets | 5/16 (31.3%) |
| Raiders | 5/16 (31.3%) |
| Rams | 5/16 (31.3%) |
| Bears | 4/16 (25%) |
| Giants | 4/16 (25%) |
| Steelers | 4/16 (25%) |
Let’s get to the Week 18 action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Week 18 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024
Browns (31.3%) at Ravens (81.3%) – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Bengals (62.5%) at Steelers (25%) – 8 p.m. ET
Panthers (43.8%) at Falcons (56.3%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Commanders (50%) at Cowboys (37.5%)
Bears (25%) at Packers (68.8%)
Texans (56.3%) at Titans (50%)
Jaguars (43.8%) at Colts (62.5%)
Bills (56.3%) at Patriots (50%)
Giants (25%) at Eagles (68.8%)
Saints (37.5%) at Buccaneers (68.8%)
Chiefs (56.3%) at Broncos (43.8%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Chargers (56.3%) at Raiders (31.3%)
Seahawks (37.5%) at Rams (31.3%)
Dolphins (43.8%) at Jets (31.3%)
49ers (50%) at Cardinals (62.5%)
Vikings (68.8%) at Lions (62.5%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first TD scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 18 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs +390, Jayden Reed +600
I’m not sure how much of Jordan Love we see here, but I think it’s enough for the Matt LaFleur scripted drive. The Packers have been strong in this department all season and are 5/7 since the bye, with Jacobs having three first team TDs and Reed having two. Combined, they have 10 of the 16 first team TDs for the Packers this season.
The other player I’d consider is Tucker Kraft at +950, who has two. But I do think that the Packers score first against the Bears and try to play from in front to give Love as much or all of the second half on the sidelines just in case they get some help from Dallas.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans +340, Jalen McMillan +700
If it ain’t broke… The Bucs have been magnificent in this area this season and have scored the first TD in five of their six games since the bye. Evans and McMillan have two each in that span. The Bucs have also scored four times on their first offensive possession in that span. With the NFC South in the balance this week, I fully expect them to play from in front and hopefully do so thanks to one of these two guys.
Arizona Cardinals: Trey McBride +650, Michael Wilson +1400
Neither team is playing for anything here, but you have to think that the 49ers are absolutely ready for the season to be over. They’ve played a ton of football the last few years and have battled an obscene amount of injuries this season.
McBride got his receiving TD last week, but I presume Kyler Murray & Co. would love to get him another one. Wilson is actually tied with Marvin Harrison Jr. with four first team TDs, but his have been more spread out, in Weeks 1, 6, 8, and 14. Harrison had three of his in the first four weeks of the season. At 14/1, with one of just 31 players who has four first team TDs, I’ll take a shot here.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
