NFL First TD Scorer
The First Touchdown Tracker is updated and we’re on to Week 2 in the NFL. Some of what was expected to happen did take place and there were a few surprises as well. It is hard to formulate any big conclusions off of one data point, but many of the teams that were quite successful with getting on the board first in 2023 and 2022 also found paydirt to start 2024.
The tough part is pinpointing the player that will be the benefactor. I picked three teams and a couple players from each team in Week 1. All three of those teams did score the first touchdown, but I didn’t connect on the player to do it. The Eagles, Vikings, and Saints were among the 16 teams to score the first TD, with Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones, and Rashid Shaheed as the three first TD scorers.
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However, thanks to my predecessor Stephanie Kamerschak and her top-notch research and snazzy First TD Tracker, we’re very much on the right track. Getting the right team is the first step. Then you just have to hope that your guy is one who gets his number called.
Like I mentioned last week, with all the turnover and the coaching changes, I’m not quite sure how much the previous two years should factor in, but they pointed me in the right direction for Week 1 and I’ll include them again after a look at 2024.
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played | Success Rate |
| Bucs | 1/1 | 100% |
| Cardinals | 1/1 | 100% |
| Colts | 1/1 | 100% |
| Cowboys | 1/1 | 100% |
| Eagles | 1/1 | 100% |
| Falcons | 1/1 | 100% |
| Jaguars | 1/1 | 100% |
| Jets | 1/1 | 100% |
| Lions | 1/1 | 100% |
| Patriots | 1/1 | 100% |
| Raiders | 1/1 | 100% |
| Ravens | 1/1 | 100% |
| Saints | 1/1 | 100% |
| Seahawks | 1/1 | 100% |
| Titans | 1/1 | 100% |
| Vikings | 1/1 | 100% |
| 49ers | 0/1 | 0% |
| Bears | 0/1 | 0% |
| Bengals | 0/1 | 0% |
| Bills | 0/1 | 0% |
| Broncos | 0/1 | 0% |
| Browns | 0/1 | 0% |
| Chargers | 0/1 | 0% |
| Chiefs | 0/1 | 0% |
| Commanders | 0/1 | 0% |
| Dolphins | 0/1 | 0% |
| Giants | 0/1 | 0% |
| Packers | 0/1 | 0% |
| Panthers | 0/1 | 0% |
| Rams | 0/1 | 0% |
| Steelers | 0/1 | 0% |
| Texans | 0/1 | 0% |
There’s your Sweet 16 and your not-so-sweet 16. The Steelers and Giants not only failed to score the first touchdown, but failed to score one at all. The Bears failed to score an offensive TD.
Of the 16 teams to score first, only three of them scored a TD on their first drive of the game. One team, Kansas City, scored the second TD of the game, but scored on their first offensive possession.
We should see better first-drive efficiency moving forward, as teams seemed to be shaking off a lot of rust.
Here are last year’s FTD results:
2023 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played | Success Rate |
| Ravens | 14/17 | 82.4 |
| 49ers | 13/17 | 76.5 |
| Chiefs | 12/17 | 70.6 |
| Raiders | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Cowboys | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Packers | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Vikings | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Jaguars | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Eagles | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Broncos | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Lions | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Dolphins | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Browns | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Bears | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Falcons | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Rams | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Bills | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Chargers | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Colts | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Bengals | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Seahawks | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Texans | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Saints | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Titans | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Steelers | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Cardinals | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Patriots | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Buccaneers | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Commanders | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Panthers | 4/17 | 23.5 |
| Giants | 4/17 | 23.5 |
| Jets | 4/17 | 23.5 |
For what it’s worth, and because Steph’s TD Tracker covers 2022, here’s how that looked, with the playoffs included:
2022 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played | Success Rate |
| Browns | 13/17 | 76.5 |
| Eagles | 14/20 | 70.0 |
| Cowboys | 13/19 | 68.4 |
| Ravens | 12/18 | 66.7 |
| Vikings | 12/18 | 66.7 |
| Chargers | 12/18 | 66.7 |
| Lions | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Titans | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Bengals | 12/20 | 60.0 |
| 49ers | 12/20 | 60.0 |
| Chiefs | 12/20 | 60.6 |
| Rams | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Panthers | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Bills | 10/19 | 52.6 |
| Patriots | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Bears | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Saints | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Commanders | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Jaguars | 8/19 | 42.1 |
| Falcons | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Raiders | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Seahawks | 7/18 | 38.9 |
| Buccaneers | 7/18 | 38.9 |
| Giants | 7/19 | 36.8 |
| Jets | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Steelers | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Packers | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Broncos | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Texans | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Cardinals | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Dolphins | 6/18 | 33.3 |
| Colts | 4/17 | 23.5 |
As I said last week, this isn’t just about picking first TD scorers. This type of tracking can help with first-quarter or first-half bets, not to mention the ability to plan for a live bet. Just as one example, Kevin O’Connell’s tremendous success with scoring first is a big reason as to why I like the Vikings plus the points against the 49ers.
With that, let’s get to the Week 2 action and look at some big mismatches off of 2023 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Week 2 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024 and 2023
Bills (0%; 47.1%) at Dolphins (0%; 58.8%) – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Saints (100%; 41.2%) at Cowboys (100%; 64.7%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Buccaneers (100%; 29.4%) at Lions (100%; 58.8%)
Colts (100%; 47.1%) at Packers (100%; 64.7%)
Jets (100%; 23.5%) at Titans (100%; 41.2%)
49ers (0%; 76.5%) at Vikings (100%; 58.8%)
Seahawks (100%; 47.1%) at Patriots (100%; 29.4%)
Giants (0%; 23.5%) at Commanders (0%; 29.4%)
Chargers (0%; 47.1%) at Panthers (0%; 23.5%)
Browns (0%; 52.9%) at Jaguars (100%; 58.8%)
Raiders (100%; 64.7%) at Ravens (100%; 82.4%)
Rams (0%; 47.1%) at Cardinals (100%; 35.3%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Steelers (0%; 41.2%) at Broncos (0%; 58.8%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Bengals (0%; 47.1%) at Chiefs (0%; 70.6%)
Bears (0%; 52.9%) at Texans (0%; 47.1%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Falcons (100%; 52.9%) at Eagles (100%; 58.8%) – Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET
NFL Week 2 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Jacksonville Jaguars: Gabe Davis (+1300), Brian Thomas Jr. (+1200)
Calvin Ridley had five first-team TDs last season and he’s gone. Travis Etienne had five as well and had the first one this season, but he’s +475 and I like the opportunities for the wide receivers here. The one clear weakness of the Browns defense is the vertical passing game. Brandin Cooks scored the first TD for Dallas last week on a broken coverage and I could see Davis or Thomas as benefactors this week.
Thomas had the Jags’ lone red-zone target among wide receivers. Etienne also had a red-zone target and the rushing touchdown that started the scoring. But, I expect to see Davis, who had 11 RZT (red-zone targets) with the Bills last season as a focal point inside the 20.
Also, while the Browns did well in this department last season and especially well in 2022, I did some digging. In the six games Deshaun Watson started last year, the Browns were 4-2 with scoring first, but the outcomes were:
- Watson rush TD with 17 seconds left in the second quarter
- Watson pick 6
- Watson pass TD with 9:39 left in the second quarter
- Jerome Ford 69-yard rush TD in first minute
- Watson pass TD with 6:48 left in the second quarter
- Watson pick 6
So the Browns had one first-quarter TD in Watson’s six starts and it was a 69-yard run.
I don’t think the Browns defense is as good this season and I like the Jaguars offense, so I like them to score first and I could see one of those two WRs doing it. If you like Etienne, I can’t blame you. I don’t love the price.
Kansas City Chiefs: Isiah Pacheco (+500), Rashee Rice (+900)
The Chiefs finished last season 14/21 overall and were 12/20 in 2022, so they are 26/41 over the last two regular seasons and postseason. While they did not score first against the Ravens, they did score on their first possession with a neat and tidy five-play, 67-yard drive that took all of 2:19 to complete.
The Chiefs and Bengals have played five times since the 2021 playoffs and have scored the first TD four times in those meetings. It is entirely possible that the Bengals offense turns it around this week, but with Tee Higgins seemingly still very banged up and Ja’Marr Chase trying to get into game shape, I’m confident in trying the Chiefs on for size.
The difference between taking Pacheco at +500 and not taking Etienne at +475 is that I think the Browns secondary is very vulnerable, especially to some deep shots near the red zone or just inside of it. I think the situation is different for Pacheco here. He had six first-team TDs last season, including one in Week 17 against Cincy. (yes, I know Burrow didn’t play)
Rice had 22 RZT and 16 receptions last season. No other Chiefs WR had more than three catches or seven targets. Travis Kelce, who is basically a WR, had 13 catches on 20 targets. I may add Kelce (+700) because I’ll be very upset if he does it and I didn’t have him, but I’m also not eager to completely spray the board on one team.
Washington Commanders: Brian Robinson Jr. (+850), Zach Ertz (+1300)
When Kliff Kingsbury was the HC/OC in Arizona in 2021 and 2022, Ertz led the team in red-zone targets both seasons. What was particularly noteworthy about the ‘21 campaign is that he only played 11 games. In 2022, he only played 10. He had 32 combined RZT in 21 games in Kingsbury’s offense and I think that matters here.
Robinson draws a Giants team that did not defend the C gap whatsoever under first-year DC Shane Bowen. Kingsbury also really likes to use his backs as pass catchers. Robinson had 12 carries and three receptions last week, so he got plenty of touches. I think he’ll get plenty this week as well. The Giants had no answer for Aaron Jones, who scored the first touchdown in that game.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
