NFL First TD Scorer
Macro trends around the NFL could have an impact on the First Touchdown Scorer market going forward. As Mitch Moss wrote about in his NFL Week 4 Lookahead Lines article this week, passing TDs are down and down dramatically.
“The league has only produced 69 passing touchdowns this year, which isn’t so nice. That’s down from 86 through two games last year, 105 the year before, 110 in the two prior seasons.” In this case, 69 is not a “nice” number.
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It does seem as though offense around the league will adjust to the adjustments. Defenses are playing with multiple high safeties in hopes of eliminating big plays, as it becomes harder and harder to be efficient moving methodically down the field than it is with the margin for error generated by a blown coverage and a big explosive play.
Right now, the league-wide red-zone success rate for touchdowns is 46.7% (93/199). Last season’s success rate was 55% (931/1694). It is obviously way too early to make sweeping generalizations and this has almost looked like an extension of the preseason through two weeks. We’ll have to see what happens as teams get their timing down and coaches figure out which plays their teams can execute the best.
So far, the team first TD distribution by position is:
QB: 4
RB: 24
WR: 28
TE: 2
D/ST: 1
No TD: 5
Again, nothing to necessarily gain from that, but something to follow in the First TD Tracker as the season goes along. Continued thanks to VSiN Executive Producer Stephanie Kamerschak for setting that up.
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played |
| Bucs | 2/2 (100%) |
| Cardinals | 2/2 (100%) |
| Eagles | 2/2 (100%) |
| Patriots | 2/2 (100%) |
| Ravens | 2/2 (100%) |
| Saints | 2/2 (100%) |
| Titans | 2/2 (100%) |
| Vikings | 2/2 (100%) |
| Bengals | 1/2 (50%) |
| Bills | 1/2 (50%) |
| Browns | 1/2 (50%) |
| Chargers | 1/2 (50%) |
| Colts | 1/2 (50%) |
| Cowboys | 1/2 (50%) |
| Falcons | 1/2 (50%) |
| Giants | 1/2 (50%) |
| Jaguars | 1/2 (50%) |
| Jets | 1/2 (50%) |
| Lions | 1/2 (50%) |
| Packers | 1/2 (50%) |
| Raiders | 1/2 (50%) |
| Seahawks | 1/2 (50%) |
| Steelers | 1/2 (50%) |
| Texans | 1/2 (0%) |
| 49ers | 0/2 (0%) |
| Bears | 0/2 (0%) |
| Broncos | 0/2 (0%) |
| Chiefs | 0/2 (0%) |
| Commanders | 0/2 (0%) |
| Dolphins | 0/2 (0%) |
| Panthers | 0/2 (0%) |
| Rams | 0/2 (0%) |
I removed the third column and pulled in data from one tab to the next to hopefully make life a touch easier on myself, so I’ll just include the fraction and the percentage in the same column going forward.
As you can see, there are seven teams that have failed to score first and eight teams that have scored first in both games.
In case you are wondering, there have only been 10 touchdown drives on a team’s first possession of the game through 64 first drives. The Cardinals and Saints are the only two teams to have scored touchdowns on each of their first two possessions thus far.
Here are last year’s FTD results:
2023 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played | Success Rate |
| Ravens | 14/17 | 82.4 |
| 49ers | 13/17 | 76.5 |
| Chiefs | 12/17 | 70.6 |
| Raiders | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Cowboys | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Packers | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Vikings | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Jaguars | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Eagles | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Broncos | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Lions | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Dolphins | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Browns | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Bears | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Falcons | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Rams | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Bills | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Chargers | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Colts | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Bengals | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Seahawks | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Texans | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Saints | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Titans | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Steelers | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Cardinals | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Patriots | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Buccaneers | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Commanders | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Panthers | 4/17 | 23.5 |
| Giants | 4/17 | 23.5 |
| Jets | 4/17 | 23.5 |
For what it’s worth, and because Steph’s TD Tracker covers 2022, here’s how that looked, with the playoffs included:
2022 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played | Success Rate |
| Browns | 13/17 | 76.5 |
| Eagles | 14/20 | 70.0 |
| Cowboys | 13/19 | 68.4 |
| Ravens | 12/18 | 66.7 |
| Vikings | 12/18 | 66.7 |
| Chargers | 12/18 | 66.7 |
| Lions | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Titans | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Bengals | 12/20 | 60.0 |
| 49ers | 12/20 | 60.0 |
| Chiefs | 12/20 | 60.6 |
| Rams | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Panthers | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Bills | 10/19 | 52.6 |
| Patriots | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Bears | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Saints | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Commanders | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Jaguars | 8/19 | 42.1 |
| Falcons | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Raiders | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Seahawks | 7/18 | 38.9 |
| Buccaneers | 7/18 | 38.9 |
| Giants | 7/19 | 36.8 |
| Jets | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Steelers | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Packers | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Broncos | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Texans | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Cardinals | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Dolphins | 6/18 | 33.3 |
| Colts | 4/17 | 23.5 |
With that, let’s get to the Week 2 action and look at some big mismatches off of 2023 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
I’ll include 2023 for a couple more weeks until just looking at 2024.
NFL Week 3 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024 and 2023
Patriots (100%; 29.4%) at Jets (50%; 23.5%) – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Giants (50%; 23.5%) at Browns (50%; 52.9%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Packers (50%; 64.7%) at Titans (100%; 41.2%)
Bears (0%; 52.9%) at Colts (50%; 47.1%)
Texans (50%; 47.1%) at Vikings (100%; 58.8%)
Eagles (100%; 58.8%) at Saints (100%; 41.2%)
Chargers (50%; 47.1%) at Steelers (50%; 41.2%)
Broncos (0%; 58.8%) at Buccaneers (100%; 29.4%)
Panthers (0%; 23.5%) at Raiders (50%; 64.7%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Dolphins (0%; 58.8%) at Seahawks (50%; 47.1%)
Ravens (100%; 82.4%) at Cowboys (50%; 64.7%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
49ers (0%; 76.5%) at Rams (0%; 47.1%)
Lions (50%; 58.8%) at Cardinals (100%; 35.3%)
Chiefs (0%; 70.6%) at Falcons (50%; 52.9%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Jaguars (50%; 58.8%) at Bills (50%; 47.1%) – Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Commanders (0%; 29.4%) at Bengals (50%; 47.1%) – 8:15 p.m. ET
NFL Week 3 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Cleveland Browns: Jerome Ford +600, Jerry Jeudy +1000
The Browns were 9/17 last season, while the Giants were 4/17. Both teams are 1/2 thus far, but the Browns definitely have the better defense between the two here.
It didn’t seem like it last week, but Ford did have more snaps than D’Onta Foreman, even though Foreman had 14 carries to Ford’s seven. I still think the Browns and Kevin Stefanski want Ford to be the feature back while Nick Chubb recovers, but they wanted to get a look at Foreman and they did. Ford should still be the guy and I like him at +600 compared to Foreman’s +650.
On the passing side, Deshaun Watson has really spread around the targets, so there is a little guesswork here, as Amari Cooper leads with 17 targets. Elijah Moore and Jeudy have 14 each, but Cooper has only hauled in five of his targets. Moore leads the way with nine catches and Jeudy has eight. It feels, though, like Jeudy is a more trusted option for Watson at present. He has the lone receiving touchdown and the bigger plays.
By the way, Ford has nine red-zone targets already. Foreman had one last week.
Kansas City Chiefs: Rashee Rice +800, Samaje Perine +1100
I just missed with the Chiefs and Isiah Pacheco/Rashee Rice last week. Of course, the Bengals got in the red zone first and stalled out. The Chiefs went right downfield and then did the same thing, with Pacheco stopped at the 3-yard-line once, 2-yard-line twice and the 1-yard-line before Harrison Butker kicked a 19-yard field goal.
I think Carson Steele was on the active roster over Perine because Pacheco is such a good pass-catching back. That would allow for Steele in two-back sets or as a short-yardage guy. My belief is that his role will still be that here, but Perine will be the focal point for the offense. Perine’s pass-catching ability should come in handy in the red zone as well.
Rice actually scored the first TD for Kansas City last week, albeit in the second quarter. This is a decent matchup for KC against Atlanta, as the Falcons really didn’t show much on offense last week until the final possession and KC has been very good in this situation over the last two seasons tracked by Steph.
Rice had four first-team TDs last season (Pacheco had six) and he’s also more of a running threat now with Pacheco sidelined.
Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase +700, Mike Gesicki +1200
I thought about including Joe Burrow here at +1300, as he already has three red-zone rush attempts and 10 rushing attempts total. We’ll see if Tee Higgins can return for Monday’s game, but even if he does, he’ll likely be on a snap count.
The Commanders have the worst pass defense in the league through two games and that should be something Burrow can exploit. Chase was visibly upset with his light workload against the Chiefs and this should be a breakout spot for him now that he’s back up to game speed and going through practices. Chase had 21 red-zone targets from Burrow last season and I like the potential he has against Washington.
As far as Gesicki goes, he nearly hauled in a TD in Week 1, but was ruled out of bounds. He has only played 48 snaps for the Bengals this season, but already has 13 targets and 10 catches. Obviously some of that comes from the Higgins and Chase situations, but I think Burrow is more committed to throwing to the tight end. Whether it’s head coach Zac Taylor, new OC Dan Pitcher, or just Burrow as he sees the defense, Andrei Iosivas caught both touchdowns last week and Trenton Irwin has five RZT. Gesicki has two and Tanner Hudson has one. They’re looking for secondary and tertiary options thus far and I think Gesicki has a good chance at a nice number.o he got plenty of touches. I think he’ll get plenty this week as well. The Giants had no answer for Aaron Jones, who scored the first touchdown in that game.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
