NFL First TD Scorer
Week 6 will be a fascinating one in the First Touchdown Scorer market, especially because I’m curious to see how the teams coming off of a bye fare. The Lions, Titans, Eagles, and Chargers have collectively fared pretty well in this department this season and now have had the chance to dig a little bit deeper into the playbook, get a little healthier, and spend some additional time preparing for their opponents.
The Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins, and Vikings are out this week, so we lose one of the best in the FTD market with Minnesota’s bye. There still appear to be some good opportunities to play on, though, so let’s do some 2024 updates and then get to the games.
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Here are the year-to-date totals and last week’s numbers for First TD Scorer by position.
QB: 12 (1)
RB: 58 (11)
WR: 60 (9)
TE: 11 (4)
D/ST: 6 (3)
No TD: 9 (0)
Kyren Williams has scored the first TD for the Rams in every game, but none of them have been the first TD of the game. Brian Robinson Jr. has four first TDs for the Commanders, with one to open the game. Derrick Henry (3/3), James Cook, Mike Evans, Marvin Harrison Jr. (3/2), Chuba Hubbard, Alexander Mattison, and David Montgomery (3/1) are the others with three first team TDs this season.
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results thus far in 2024:
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played |
| Ravens | 5/5 (100%) |
| Vikings | 5/5 (100%) |
| Cardinals | 4/5 (80%) |
| Colts | 4/5 (80%) |
| Falcons | 4/5 (80%) |
| Chargers | 3/4 (75%) |
| Eagles | 3/4 (75%) |
| Lions | 3/4 (75%) |
| Titans | 3/4 (75%) |
| Bengals | 3/5 (60%) |
| Browns | 3/5 (60%) |
| Bucs | 3/5 (60%) |
| Packers | 3/5 (60%) |
| Patriots | 3/5 (60%) |
| Seahawks | 3/5 (60%) |
| 49ers | 2/5 (40%) |
| Bills | 2/5 (40%) |
| Broncos | 2/5 (40%) |
| Cowboys | 2/5 (40%) |
| Jaguars | 2/5 (40%) |
| Saints | 2/5 (40%) |
| Panthers | 2/5 (40%) |
| Raiders | 2/5 (40%) |
| Steelers | 2/5 (40%) |
| Texans | 2/5 (40%) |
| Bears | 1/5 (20%) |
| Giants | 1/5 (20%) |
| Jets | 1/5 (20%) |
| Chiefs | 1/5 (20%) |
| Commanders | 1/5 (20%) |
| Dolphins | 0/5 (0%) |
| Rams | 0/5 (0%) |
The Rams and Dolphins will not replace the 0 at the front of their ledger, as they are on byes. The Ravens and Vikings remain the only perfect teams. Minnesota will not add to it this week, as they are also on a bye. We’ll see if the Ravens can remain perfect as they take on the Commanders, who are among the league’s worst. (spoiler alert)
In terms of performance on the first offensive possession, the Cardinals are the only 5/5 team in the league. The Ravens are 4/5, with Week 2 against the Raiders as the lone exception. The Bears, Cowboys, Dolphins, Jaguars, Jets, Patriots, Rams, Seahawks, and Steelers are 0/5. The Eagles are 0/4 on their first drive.
Here are last year’s FTD results:
2023 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played | Success Rate |
| Ravens | 14/17 | 82.4 |
| 49ers | 13/17 | 76.5 |
| Chiefs | 12/17 | 70.6 |
| Raiders | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Cowboys | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Packers | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Vikings | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Jaguars | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Eagles | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Broncos | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Lions | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Dolphins | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Browns | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Bears | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Falcons | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Rams | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Bills | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Chargers | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Colts | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Bengals | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Seahawks | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Texans | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Saints | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Titans | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Steelers | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Cardinals | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Patriots | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Buccaneers | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Commanders | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Panthers | 4/17 | 23.5 |
| Giants | 4/17 | 23.5 |
| Jets | 4/17 | 23.5 |
Let’s get to the Week 6 action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Also, I’ll be listing just the 2024 numbers in the matchups, but considering the past when applicable.
NFL Week 6 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024
49ers (40%) at Seahawks (60%) – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Jaguars (40%) at Bears (20%) (London) – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Commanders (20%) at Ravens (100%) – 1 p.m. ET
Cardinals (80%) at Packers (60%)
Texans (40%) at Patriots (60%)
Buccaneers (60%) at Saints (40%)
Chargers (75%) at Broncos (40%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Steelers (40%) at Raiders (40%)
Falcons (80%) at Panthers (40%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Bengals (60%) at Giants (20%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Bills (40%) at Jets (20%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Quick note that Carolina is 2/3 since Andy Dalton took over. The Packers are 2/3 in Jordan Love’s three starts.
NFL Week 6 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry +350, Rashod Bateman +1500
Henry is the short shot across the market this week and understandably so, as the Ravens put that perfect 5-0 first TD record on the line against the Commanders. Henry has had the first TD in Weeks 1, 4, 5, with Zay Flowers and Lamar Jackson as the others. Henry has 12 rush attempts to just one for Justice Hill in the red zone, so it’s a low price, but you have to give it a look with how things are playing out and how the Ravens have fared in this department.
As for Bateman, the Commanders have a bad defense against both the pass and the run. They are 26th in Dropback EPA and 24th in Dropback Success Rate. So, I picked a WR. The Commanders have only allowed 15 catches to tight ends over five games and just one receiving score, so I didn’t want to go with Isaiah Likely or Marc Andrews.
Bateman has caught all three of his red-zone targets for 32 yards and two touchdowns, so I went with him.
Los Angeles Chargers: J.K. Dobbins +550, Ladd McConkey +1000
Another case of taking the short shot and trying a price that is a little more attractive. Given that the Chargers are 75% on the season, including 100% in their last three games, with how Justin Herbert has been hobbling around, I feel like LA off of a bye is a great spot to enter this market.
Dobbins and Gus Edwards each have five red-zone carries and Dobbins has the lone target. In fact, the Chargers have really spread it around, as no receiver has more than three targets. It is McConkey with two touchdowns, whereas Joshua Palmer has three targets and no scores.
I just want to fade the Raiders, who had the first TD in Week 1 and then last week, but that may have been a little fluky with the 57-yard catch and run for Brock Bowers. The Raiders actually had two long drives to open the game before Denver shut them down. Hopefully the Chargers were studious in their film sessions.
Cincinnati Bengals: Chase Brown +550, Tee Higgins +750
Zack Moss seems to be dealing with a high ankle sprain and he was losing ground to Brown for snaps anyway. Brown had Cincinnati’s first TD in Week 4 and Higgins had it in Week 5, though his was not the first of the game. Moss has 15 rush attempts and a couple of targets, so he’s been a popular red-zone option for Zac Taylor and Dan Pitcher. If he’s not available, those touches go to Brown, who has six carries and four targets as it is.
The Bengals have gotten six total TD from their running backs this season in red-zone situations. Three Bengals WR have five red-zone targets and one (Andrei Iosivas) has four, with Iosivas leading the way in TDs with three. But, Higgins has the other two and I think the reliable possession receiver is the one to take out of the pass catchers, as the Bengals offense has been humming and the Giants have had no success scoring first.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
