NFL First TD Scorer
Week 7 is here and there are only two teams on bye weeks, so we’ve got 30 teams to analyze and handicap in the First Touchdown Scorer market. It has certainly been interesting to follow this market as closely as I have this season after taking over the article and the Tracker from our executive producer Stephanie Kamerschak.
Everything is updated and the data gets more and more telling with each passing week. Injuries are definitely a big deal all season long, but it sure feels like we have a lot of them to contend with at the skill positions this week. Keep those in mind when not only looking at who you might want to take, but also the success rates of the teams. As good of a scripter as a head coach or coordinator may be, missing key players certainly increases the degree of difficulty when it comes to scoring first.
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Here are the year-to-date totals and last week’s numbers for First TD Scorer by position.
QB: 15 (3)
RB: 64 (6)
WR: 74 (14)
TE: 12 (1)
D/ST: 9 (3)
No TD: 10 (1)
We had 28 teams in action in Week 6 and half of the first team TDs were from wide receivers. We also had three defensive or special teams TDs, two of which were scored by guys that play WR in Laviska Shenault and Rashid Shaheed, but they came on special teams plays. It is worth noting that we were missing the Chiefs and Vikings, who are two of the better teams in this department on an annual basis.
Derrick Henry scored his fourth first TD of the season for both the Ravens and the game. He still trails Kyren Williams, who has five, but none of Williams’ TDs have opened the touchdown scoring. David Montgomery (3), Alexander Mattison (2), and Brian Robinson Jr. (1) also have four TDs each, but you can see their counts in terms of opening the scoring. For the Tracker, that is on the “2024 Top Players” tab.
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results thus far in 2024:
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played |
| Ravens | 6/6 (100%) |
| Vikings | 5/5 (100%) |
| Colts | 5/6 (83.3%) |
| Chargers | 4/5 (80%) |
| Eagles | 4/5 (80%) |
| Lions | 4/5 (80%) |
| Bengals | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Bucs | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Cardinals | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Falcons | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Packers | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Titans | 3/5 (60%) |
| 49ers | 3/6 (50%) |
| Bills | 3/6 (50%) |
| Browns | 3/6 (50%) |
| Panthers | 3/6 (50%) |
| Patriots | 3/6 (50%) |
| Raiders | 3/6 (50%) |
| Seahawks | 3/6 (50%) |
| Texans | 3/6 (50%) |
| Bears | 2/5 (40%) |
| Broncos | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Cowboys | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Jaguars | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Jets | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Saints | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Steelers | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Chiefs | 1/5 (20%) |
| Commanders | 1/6 (16.7%) |
| Giants | 1/6 (16.7%) |
| Dolphins | 0/5 (0%) |
| Rams | 0/5 (0%) |
The Dolphins and Rams were idle last week, so they didn’t have a chance to erase their zeroes. They’ll have that chance this week. The Ravens remained perfect at 6-for-6. They’ll face a tough customer in the Bucs on Monday night in hopes of staying unblemished. The Vikings have a tough task against the Lions as well.
The Cardinals did not score on their first possession for the first time this season. They are now 5-for-6 in that department. That remains the best mark in the league. The Ravens are 4-for-6. The Bucs and Colts have scored on their first possession in each of the last three games.
The Bears, Cowboys, Dolphins (0/5), Eagles (0/5), Jaguars, Jets, Patriots, Rams (0/5), Seahawks, and Steelers have all failed to score on their first possession of a game this season. The teams not noted are 0/6 through six weeks.
One last time, here are last year’s FTD results:
2023 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played | Success Rate |
| Ravens | 14/17 | 82.4 |
| 49ers | 13/17 | 76.5 |
| Chiefs | 12/17 | 70.6 |
| Raiders | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Cowboys | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Packers | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Vikings | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Jaguars | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Eagles | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Broncos | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Lions | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Dolphins | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Browns | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Bears | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Falcons | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Rams | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Bills | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Chargers | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Colts | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Bengals | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Seahawks | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Texans | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Saints | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Titans | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Steelers | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Cardinals | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Patriots | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Buccaneers | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Commanders | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Panthers | 4/17 | 23.5 |
| Giants | 4/17 | 23.5 |
| Jets | 4/17 | 23.5 |
Let’s get to the Week 7 action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Also, I’ll be listing just the 2024 numbers in the matchups, but considering the past when applicable.
NFL Week 7 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024
Broncos (33.3%) at Saints (33.3%) – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Patriots (50%) at Jaguars (33.3%) – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Seahawks (50%) at Falcons (66.7%) – 1 p.m. ET
Bengals (66.7%) at Browns (50%)
Texans (50%) at Packers (66.7%)
Dolphins (0%) at Colts (83.3%)
Eagles (80%) at Giants (16.7%)
Raiders (50%) at Rams (0%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Panthers (50%) at Commanders (16.7%)
Chiefs (20%) at 49ers (50%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Jets (33.3%) at Steelers (33.3%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Ravens (100%) at Buccaneers (66.7%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Chargers (80%) at Cardinals (66.7%) – 9 p.m. ET
NFL Week 7 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Indianapolis Colts: Tyler Goodson +950, Josh Downs +1300
The Colts have scored first in five of six and each of the last four, including their first possession in each of the last three.
Indy’s injury report looks like the White Pages (that’s a phone book for all you youngins out there). Jonathan Taylor, Trey Sermon, Michael Pittman, and even Downs are all listed. Both Pittman and Downs were listed last week. Pittman played 80% of the snaps and has played at least 80% of the offensive snaps every week. Downs saw his highest snap share at 79%.
I know it’ll likely be Anthony Richardson here, which also muddies the situation, but Downs has 30 targets over the last three weeks and 35 in the four games he has played since coming back. Pittman has played all six games and has 42 targets, including seven red-zone looks. Downs already has six and more red-zone catches than Pittman.
Admittedly, Goodson is a gamble. And the books have priced him lower than he probably should be with Taylor not even listed and a banged-up Sermon at +750. I don’t hate that look either, as Sermon is likely to play after getting 60% of the snaps last week. However, he had 18 carries for 29 yards and only has 2.5 yards per carry. Goodson had 12 touches for 65 total yards last week. I think he’s the best gamble at the RB position, especially after getting most of the looks in clear passing downs.
Philadelphia Eagles: Saquon Barkley +400, A.J. Brown +700
Say what you will about the Eagles – and there’s plenty to say – but they have scored the first TD in four of their five games, while the Giants are just 1-for-6 and haven’t scored a TD in two of those games. Barkley has led the game with touchdowns twice. Flip a coin between Brown, who had the team’s first TD last week and has 235 yards and two touchdowns in his two games, and DeVonta Smith, who has four red-zone targets in four games and had a TD last week. Smith had the first TD for the Eagles back in Week 2.
Barkley has 18 carries and four targets, so it only makes sense to include him, even at the depressed price and even if the Giants have only allowed two rushing touchdowns this season. Jalen Hurts and OC Kellen Moore are looking for Barkley a lot in the scoring areas.
Brian Johnson is no longer the OC, but Brown had 18 red-zone targets last season to Smith’s six. Brown also had 10 red-zone catches on those targets. The price is better on Smith (+850) and I can’t really argue with taking either one. But, when they’re both healthy, Brown has had the higher target share overall and higher target share in the red zone, so I defer to that in this instance.
Los Angeles Chargers: J.K. Dobbins +550, Quentin Johnston +1500
The favorite and a fairly long shot here for the Chargers, who are really settling in nicely this season. They did not score first in the opener against the Raiders, but have scored first in each of their last four games. Johnston had two of those first TDs in Weeks 2 and 3 with a 38-yard catch-and-run from Kimani Vidal last week. Ladd McConkey had Week 4’s first score.
The Cardinals have given up eight TD to WR this season and get virtually no pressure on the QB. Johnston is the home run hitter of the Chargers offense, so I could see a big play, but I could also see the 6-foot-4 wideout getting a look inside the 20 as well.
Vidal played more in place of Gus Edwards last week, who is now on IR, but not that much. He had 19 offensive snaps and got six touches. Dobbins was out there for 73% of the snaps and had 25 carries with a couple of targets. While he has not at all been able to replicate his first two weeks of the season with 266 yards on the ground, he has a good chance to score first here.
It would help if the Cardinals don’t have Marvin Harrison Jr., who has three first team TDs this season, but the Chargers are well-coached and their game scripts have been top-notch of late.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
