NFL First TD Scorer
Week 9 features 30 of the league’s 32 teams, as the Steelers and 49ers enjoy a week off at the midpoint of the season. We had some pretty significant mismatches last week in terms of first touchdown proficiency. Hopefully we continue to have more of them as the games play out, as the first part of the battle is trying to isolate the teams that will do that and the second part is hoping to pick the right player to do it.
After doing a little housekeeping on the Tracker, it’s time to look at the things I’ve been updating each week, as we look at touchdowns by position from last week.
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QB: 20 (4)
RB: 92 (13)
WR: 88 (8)
TE: 20 (5)
D/ST: 12 (1)
No TD: 14 (1)
Halfway through the season, running backs and wide receivers are pretty even, quarterbacks and tight ends are pretty even, and defense/special teams and No TD are pretty even. Admittedly, I have no idea if it usually sets up that way, but it is pretty cool.
I’ve also been keeping track of players with three or more first team TDs. Here’s that list for those too lazy to click the Tracker.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 7 | 1 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 5 | 4 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 4 | 4 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 4 | 3 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 4 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison (LV) | 4 | 2 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 4 | 1 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 4 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 3 | 3 |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 3 | 2 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 3 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 3 | 2 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | 3 | 1 |
| Michael Wilson (AR) | 3 | 1 |
| Justin Fields (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
Some pretty interesting stuff here, mostly that Kyren Williams has scored first in all seven Rams games for his team. You have to think that streak comes to an end soon with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back. Also, for as much of a timeshare as David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs seem to have, it’s Montgomery with all the early touchdowns. For what it’s worth, Gibbs has the other two in Detroit’s games, so all seven first TDs have been scored by the RB position.
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results thus far in 2024:
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played |
| Vikings | 7/7 (100%) |
| Ravens | 7/8 (87.5%) |
| Bengals | 6/8 (75%) |
| Colts | 6/8 (75%) |
| Packers | 6/8 (75%) |
| Chargers | 5/7 (71.4%) |
| Eagles | 5/7 (71.4%) |
| Lions | 5/7 (71.4%) |
| Bucs | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Cardinals | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Falcons | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Patriots | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Titans | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Bills | 4/8 (50%) |
| Panthers | 4/8 (50%) |
| Seahawks | 4/8 (50%) |
| Bears | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Chiefs | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Cowboys | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| 49ers | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Broncos | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Browns | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Jets | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Raiders | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Steelers | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Texans | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Dolphins | 2/7 (28.6%) |
| Commanders | 2/8 (25%) |
| Jaguars | 2/8 (25%) |
| Saints | 2/8 (25%) |
| Rams | 1/7 (14.3%) |
| Giants | 1/8 (12.5%) |
The Vikings are still perfect on the season. We’ll see if Joe Flacco and the Colts can change that. They’ve been really good in that department.
The Giants and Rams have not, as they’ve only scored the game’s first TD once. The Giants actually have three games without a TD. They are the only team with multiple games of no touchdowns.
Check out the Tracker for some more goodies, including the rates for teams scoring on their opening drives this season.
Let’s get to the Week 9 action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Note: I’m going to start publishing this on Thursday because DK is getting slower about posting the touchdown market odds and I want to make sure as many games are available as possible.
NFL Week 9 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024
Texans (37.5%) at Jets (37.5%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Cowboys (42.9%) at Falcons (62.5%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Dolphins (28.6%) at Bills (50%)
Raiders (37.5%) at Bengals (75%)
Chargers (71.4%) at Browns (37.5%)
Patriots (62.5%) at Titans (57.1%)
Commanders (25%) at Giants (12.5%)
Saints (25%) at Panthers (50%)
Broncos (37.5%) at Ravens (87.5%)
Jaguars (25%) at Eagles (71.4%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Bears (42.9%) at Cardinals (71.4%)
Lions (71.4%) at Packers (75%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Rams (14.3%) at Seahawks (50%)
Colts (75%) at Vikings (100%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Buccaneers (62.5%) at Chiefs (42.9%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first TD scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 9 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well. Side note, I’m leaving the Cardinals out because of Tua’s return for the Dolphins.
Washington Commanders: Brian Robinson Jr. +600, Terry McLaurin +650
I’m not going to get cute with this one. McLaurin is the only Commanders WR with a red zone TD this season and he actually has three of them. Robinson has scored the first TD for the Commanders four times. I realize we’re coming off of a game where the Commanders were a miraculous Hail Mary away from not scoring a TD for the second time this season, but hear me out.
Washington has scored two first TDs and has also scored twice on their first possession after giving up a TD. And all of that has happened in the last six games. Meanwhile, the Giants haven’t scored a TD in three of their games this season and, ironically, the only game they scored the first TD was against Washington back in Week 2.
The Commanders got inside the 5-yard-line on their first drive of that game. I think they’re worth a look here and those are the two likeliest players to score against the worst first touchdown team in the league.
Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase +500, Mike Gesicki +1500
The Bengals are frustrating because they’re good at this first touchdown thing, but Chase became the first player on the team to score a second team first TD last week. Zack Moss, Andrei Iosivas, Chase Brown, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, and Charlie Jones on a kick return have the other first TD.
With Higgins trending towards not playing again this week, Chase is an obvious pick. He’s also the favorite, but he’s scored at least one TD in five of the last six games and has seven on the season overall.
Gesicki’s increased workload was likely a result of game state last week, but he tied his season-high in snaps with 31 and had his highest snap share with 53%. He had eight targets and seven catches for 73 yards, easily his best output since Week 2. I’m not a coach, but the Bengals play selection seems pretty obvious based on which tight end is in the game. But, if Higgins is out, Burrow needs another red-zone option. Chase has 10 RZT so far, the most on the team by far. Gesicki leads the tight ends with three.
Baltimore Ravens: Mark Andrews +900, Justice Hill +1700
Taking a couple of shots with the Ravens here, who are second in first TD% this season. Derrick Henry’s down to +290 and I can’t fault anybody for taking him, but I want to spice things up a bit. Let’s start with Andrews, whose demise was greatly exaggerated earlier this season. He’s got four touchdowns in his last three games and 16 catches on 18 targets in that span. He played 50 snaps in Week 8 for a 74% snap share, which tied his season high set back in Week 1.
The wild card and the long shot here is Justice Hill. Hill has still reliably played at least 38% of the snaps every week and had a 50% snap share last week against Cleveland. The Broncos don’t have a very good run defense, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hill break one, but they’ve also allowed the fifth-most receptions to running backs and are among 12 teams to allow multiple receiving TDs for RB.
Henry is still having a great season, but the Ravens have been responsible with his workload and that does create some opportunity for Hill at a big number. Hill has five carries and six targets in the red zone. Denver ranks 28th in first quarter points per game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Cade Otton +1300, Jalen McMillan +1700, Baker Mayfield +2500
Obviously numbers like these don’t require a full-unit bet by any means, but I’m intrigued by the Bucs on Monday Night Football. I think Liam Coen is a terrific OC. The Bucs scored on their second possession last week against the Falcons after a quick first possession. It was a good, long drive.
The Chiefs have only scored 3.4 points per game in the first quarter this season. The Bucs have scored 8.8. And, yes, I realize that having Mike Evans and Chris Godwin goes a long way in that equation. But, Baker Mayfield has been playing really well again this season and the Bucs didn’t lose because of the offense last week. The Chiefs seem to be sleepwalking through the season in a lot of respects. They’re still undefeated, which is a testament to just how absurdly talented they are, but still.
Otton was the star last week with nine catches on 10 targets and two touchdowns, including TB’s first of the game. Coen has been getting him open and he’s got 35 catches in the last six games on 47 targets, so he’s got a high Catch%.
McMillan had the highest snap share of any WR last week. The rookie out of Washington appears likely to get the chances with Godwin and Evans out. And the Baker 25/1 is just a shot because he’s never been afraid to run in the red zone. He has five rush attempts and two TD thus far. He has 38 pass attempts in the red zone against 25 total carries for running backs. I think it’s worth a few darts on the Bucs, who had scored on their first possession in four straight games before scoring on their second one last week.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
