NFL First TD Scorer:
Eighteen weeks worth of data points have all led to this – the start of the NFL playoffs. The First Touchdown Scorer article isn’t going anywhere, it will just be shorter with fewer games and maybe fewer mismatches worth trying to exploit. There is a wide range of success among the 12 teams in action this weekend, and it will be interesting to see if some of the First TD laggards are bounced and if that has an impact on the games.
Remember, the Tracker and analysis are helpful for betting into that 1st TD market, but also for looking at derivative betting on first quarters and first halves, which could be an even more relevant way of using this information given the nature of the postseason.
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Before digging into all of this week’s stuff, let’s recap the first touchdowns by position from the regular season (I will group the playoffs separately from here on):
QB: 46 (4)
RB: 190 (7)
WR: 198 (12)
TE: 63 (5)
D/ST: 21 (2)
No TD: 35 (2)
OL: 1 (1) (OL are not lined, so the Cardinals/Patriots Week 15 1st TD was likely voided at your book)
Wide receivers around the league are certainly celebrating their win, as they took the lead in Week 17 and even built on it in Week 18 to finish out the season.
I won’t post this chart again, as you can refer to the Tracker to look at the playoff teams individually, but here’s the final list of guys that had at least three first team TDs.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 12 | 5 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 7 | 7 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 7 | 6 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 6 | 4 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 6 | 3 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 6 | 3 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 6 | 3 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 6 | 3 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 6 | 2 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 5 | 5 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 5 | 4 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 5 | 3 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 5 | 2 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 5 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison (LV) | 5 | 2 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) | 5 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 5 | 0 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 4 | 4 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 4 | 3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 4 | 3 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 4 | 3 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 4 | 3 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 4 | 2 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 4 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 4 | 2 |
| Jonnu Smith (MIA) | 4 | 2 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | 4 | 2 |
| Michael Wilson (AR) | 4 | 2 |
| Rico Dowdle (DAL) | 4 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 4 | 1 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 4 | 1 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 4 | 0 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 3 | 3 |
| Calvin Ridley (TEN) | 3 | 3 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Tank Bigsby (JAX) | 3 | 2 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 3 | 2 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 3 | 2 |
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | 3 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 3 | 2 |
| Roschon Johnson (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 3 | 2 |
| Alec Pierce (IND) | 3 | 2 |
| Deebo Samuel (SF) | 3 | 2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill (NO) | 3 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy (CLE) | 3 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 3 | 1 |
| George Pickens (PIT) | 3 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 3 | 1 |
| Jalen Tolbert (DAL) | 3 | 1 |
| Nick Vannett (TEN) | 3 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
| Bryce Young (CAR) | 3 | 1 |
| Justin Fields (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 3 | 0 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 3 | 0 |
| No Touchdown (CHI) | 3 | 0 |
| No Touchdown (NYG) | 3 | 0 |
For some other miscellaneous trends and nuggets from playoff teams only:
- The Ravens have scored the first TD in five straight games
- The Bills don’t have a non QB/RB offensive first team TD since Week 9 (WR Mack Hollins)
- The Broncos have scored first in five of the last eight games, so 62.5%, much higher than their 47.1% for the season
- The last two weeks are the first time the Packers have failed to score the first TD in consecutive games
- The Texans are 2/4 scoring the first TD since their bye week; they had scored first in five straight and seven of nine prior to the bye
- The Chargers have failed to score the first TD in five of their last six games
- The Rams have failed to score the first TD in three of their last four games (and most of the season)
- The Vikings were one of the stronger regular season teams, but are just 3/7 in their last seven games
- The Eagles have scored the first TD in five straight games
- The Steelers have not scored the first TD since Week 10
- The Buccaneers have scored first in five of seven games since the bye
- The Commanders have scored first in six of their last seven games
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results for the 2024 regular season:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Ravens | 14/17 (82.4%) |
| Eagles | 12/17 (70.6%) |
| Bengals | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Bucs | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Cardinals | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Colts | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Lions | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Packers | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Vikings | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Texans | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Bills | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Chargers | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Chiefs | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Commanders | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Falcons | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Patriots | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| 49ers | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Broncos | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Panthers | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Titans | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Dolphins | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Jaguars | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Saints | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Seahawks | 7/17 (41.8%) |
| Cowboys | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Jets | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Raiders | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Bears | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Browns | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Rams | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Giants | 4/17 (23.5%) |
| Steelers | 4/17 (23.5%) |
Here are just the playoff teams:
| Playoff teams | First TD of game/games played | Success rate |
| Ravens | 14/17 | 82.4% |
| Eagles | 12/17 | 70.6% |
| Bucs | 11/17 | 64.7% |
| Lions | 11/17 | 64.7% |
| Packers | 11/17 | 64.7% |
| Vikings | 11/17 | 64.7% |
| Texans | 10/17 | 58.8% |
| Bills | 9/17 | 52.9% |
| Chargers | 9/17 | 52.9% |
| Chiefs | 9/17 | 52.9% |
| Commanders | 9/17 | 52.9% |
| Broncos | 8/17 | 47.1% |
| Rams | 5/17 | 29.4% |
| Steelers | 4/17 | 23.5% |
Let’s get to the Wild Card Weekend action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024
Chargers (52.9%) at Texans (58.8%) – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Steelers (23.5%) at Ravens (82.4%) – Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
Broncos (47.1%) at Bills (52.9%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Packers (64.7%) at Eagles (70.6%) – Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Commanders (52.9%) at Buccaneers (64.7%) – Sunday, 8 p.m. ET
Vikings (64.7%) vs. Rams (29.4%) – Monday, 8 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first TD scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Wild Card Weekend First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry +310, Mark Andrews +750
The Ravens and Steelers game is a major mismatch in the first TD market and there will be a lot of money on Henry here. Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely probably serve as good options in a world without Zay Flowers, but I could absolutely see more Lamar Jackson rush attempts now that it’s the playoffs and the pressure is on.
Jackson only had four rushing scores during the season, though, and the Steelers were outstanding when it came to limiting QB rush yards. I’ll take a look at Andrews instead. He had 11 receiving touchdowns to lead the team and three first team TDs. Henry, of course, led the way with seven.
Philadelphia Eagles: Saquon Barkley +370, Dallas Goedert +1500
I’m of the belief that Goedert is a big part of the gameplan for the Eagles, so it’s a bit of a long shot, gut-feel type of thing for me. But, I think he’s just as likely as the other pass-catchers at a better price. The Eagles only have 24 TD passes on the season and only 18 of them belong to Hurts. Hurts actually had 14 rushing TD to lead the team, so maybe that’s not a bad route to go.
But, the Packers, much like I talked about in my preview, had a hard time with good teams. They were 0/4 in first TDs against the Lions and Vikings and also failed against the Eagles in Week 1. I could make a case that they padded their first TD numbers, much like they did their record, so that’s why I’m looking at the Eagles here
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
