NFL First Touchdown
One week is in the books and we have 17 to go in the 2025-26 NFL season. That means we have our first set of data points for the NFL First Touchdown Tracker. The process was mostly sound last week with the picks, even though none of them connected. The goal is to try and figure out which team will score first and then hope that you land on the right player, as there are always going to be multiple options.
The Colts did score first, but it was Michael Pittman Jr. and not Josh Downs or Jonathan Taylor. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Derrick Henry were picks for their respective teams, and they did score the first TD for their teams, but the other team scored first. So, roughly half the battle was completed, but in the end, it’s a bottom-line business. The goal is to keep compiling new information while also analyzing the past to make the most informed guesses based on the data that we have.
I’ll continue to post the 2024 data for a few weeks, but before I get to the Week 1 results, let’s look at a breakdown by position.
QB: 3 (2024 regular season total: 46)
RB: 10 (2024 total: 190)
WR: 11 (2024 total: 198)
TE: 5 (2024 total: 63)
D/ST: 0 (2024 total: 21)
No TD: 3 (2024 total: 35)
2024 note: One offensive lineman scored a 1st TD last season; they are not listed at sportsbooks, so it was likely graded as ‘No Action’
No big outliers that I can see, as extrapolating out to 18 weeks falls pretty close to what we had last season. Five first team TDs for tight ends was a little on the high side relative to most weeks last season, so we’ll see if that continues to be a thing. While only three of the first team TDs were QB runs, there were 13 QB rushing touchdowns in Week 1. There were 107 total QB rushing TD last season.
One other thing to mention regarding last week is that teams had a 55.7% TD% in the red zone. Through three weeks last season, the league was under 45%. Maybe the onus on getting off to a better start or playing the starters a bit more in the preseason had an impact there.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| 49ers | 1/1 (100%) |
| Bears | 1/1 (100%) |
| Bengals | 1/1 (100%) |
| Bills | 1/1 (100%) |
| Broncos | 1/1 (100%) |
| Chargers | 1/1 (100%) |
| Colts | 1/1 (100%) |
| Commanders | 1/1 (100%) |
| Cowboys | 1/1 (100%) |
| Eagles | 1/1 (100%) |
| Falcons | 1/1 (100%) |
| Jaguars | 1/1 (100%) |
| Packers | 1/1 (100%) |
| Raiders | 1/1 (100%) |
| Rams | 1/1 (100%) |
| Saints | 1/1 (100%) |
| Steelers | 1/1 (100%) |
| Browns | 0/1 (0%) |
| Bucs | 0/1 (0%) |
| Cardinals | 0/1 (0%) |
| Chiefs | 0/1 (0%) |
| Dolphins | 0/1 (0%) |
| Giants | 0/1 (0%) |
| Jets | 0/1 (0%) |
| Lions | 0/1 (0%) |
| Panthers | 0/1 (0%) |
| Patriots | 0/1 (0%) |
| Ravens | 0/1 (0%) |
| Seahawks | 0/1 (0%) |
| Texans | 0/1 (0%) |
| Titans | 0/1 (0%) |
| Vikings | 0/1 (0%) |
16 to the good, 16 to the bad. Obviously three of the 16 that didn’t score a TD first didn’t score at all.
In terms of the “scripted drive”, 12 of the 32 teams scored on their first possession, whether that meant the first possession of the game or the first time that they got the ball. That is part of the 1st TD Tracker, so you can get that info each week.
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2024:
| Ravens | 16/19 (84.2%) |
| Eagles | 16/21 (76.2%) |
| Lions | 12/18 (66.7%) |
| Bengals | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Cardinals | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Colts | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Bucs | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Packers | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Vikings | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Texans | 11/19 (57.9%) |
| Chiefs | 11/20 (55%) |
| Falcons | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Patriots | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Commanders | 10/20 (50%) |
| Broncos | 9/18 (50%) |
| Chargers | 9/18 (50%) |
| Bills | 9/20 (45%) |
| 49ers | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Panthers | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Titans | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Seahawks | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Dolphins | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Jaguars | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Saints | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Cowboys | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Jets | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Raiders | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Rams | 6/19 (31.6%) |
| Bears | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Browns | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Giants | 4/17 (23.5%) |
| Steelers | 4/18 (22.2%) |
The best all the way down to the worst. I also track teams that scored on the first possession of the game, aka the “scripted drive”.
I’m not going to post this for 2023, but for 2024, here are all of the players that scored at least three first-team TDs for their respective teams. This is NOT first TD, but first TD for the team.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 13 | 6 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 8 | 3 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 7 | 7 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 7 | 6 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 7 | 5 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 7 | 4 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 7 | 3 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 7 | 3 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 6 | 6 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 6 | 5 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 6 | 4 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 6 | 3 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 6 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 5 | 4 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 5 | 3 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 5 | 2 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 5 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison (LV) | 5 | 2 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) | 5 | 1 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 5 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 5 | 0 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 4 | 4 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 4 | 4 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 4 | 3 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 4 | 3 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 4 | 3 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 4 | 2 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 4 | 2 |
| Jonnu Smith (MIA) | 4 | 2 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | 4 | 2 |
| Michael Wilson (AR) | 4 | 2 |
| Rico Dowdle (DAL) | 4 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 4 | 1 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 4 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley (TEN) | 3 | 3 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Tank Bigsby (JAX) | 3 | 2 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 3 | 2 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 3 | 2 |
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | 3 | 2 |
| Roschon Johnson (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 3 | 2 |
| Alec Pierce (IND) | 3 | 2 |
| Deebo Samuel (SF) | 3 | 2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
| Ray Davis (BUF) | 3 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill (NO) | 3 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy (CLE) | 3 | 1 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 3 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 3 | 1 |
| George Pickens (PIT) | 3 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 3 | 1 |
| Jalen Tolbert (DAL) | 3 | 1 |
| Nick Vannett (TEN) | 3 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
| Bryce Young (CAR) | 3 | 1 |
| Justin Fields (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 3 | 0 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 3 | 0 |
| No Touchdown (CHI) | 3 | 0 |
| No Touchdown (NYG) | 3 | 0 |
This will shock you, but Kyren Williams had the 1st TD for the Rams. Others who were proficient in this department that scored first for their teams last week include Derrick Henry, Jalen Hurts, De’Von Achane, Chuba Hubbard, and Bijan Robinson.
With that, let’s get to the Week 2 action and look at some big mismatches from 2024 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible. I’ll include 2024 numbers for 4-5 weeks until we get some decent 2025 data.
Brief note since it looks like a mismatch: the Browns were 5-for-7 in Joe Flacco starts back in 2023 and above 50% for the season, but struggled badly last year with their random cast of QB characters. Cleveland did not score first last week, but did score on their opening possession after Cincinnati scored the first TD.
NFL Week 2 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025 & 2024
Commanders (100%; 50%) at Packers (100%; 61.1%) – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Patriots (0%; 52.9%) at Dolphins (0%; 41.2%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Jaguars (100%; 41.2%) at Bengals (100%; 64.7%)
Browns (0%; 29.4%) at Ravens (0%; 84.2%)
Giants (0%; 23.5%) at Cowboys (100%; 35.3%)
Rams (100%; 31.6%) at Titans (0%; 47.1%)
Bills (100%; 45%) at Jets (0%; 35.3%)
Bears (100%; 29.4%) at Lions (0%; 66.7%)
Seahawks (0%; 41.2%) at Steelers (100%; 22.2%)
49ers (100%; 47.1%) at Saints (100%; 41.2%)
Panthers (0%; 47.1%) at Cardinals (0%; 64.7%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Broncos (100%; 50%) at Colts (100%; 64.7%)
Eagles (100%; 76.2%) at Chiefs (0%; 55%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Falcons (100%; 52.9%) at Vikings (0%; 61.1%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Buccaneers (0%; 61.1%) at Texans (0%; 57.9%) – Monday, 7 p.m. ET
Chargers (100%; 50%) at Raiders (100%; 35.3%) – 10 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 2 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Cincinnati Bengals: Chase Brown +450, Ja’Marr Chase +500
Nothing sexy here, but after Chase had two catches for 26 yards on five targets against the Browns, you better believe that Joe Burrow will try to get him involved early against the Jaguars. Meanwhile, Jacksonville was 2-of-5 in the red zone and their first TD came on a short drive after a Panthers pick in the second quarter. I have no doubt that Liam Coen will do good things with that offense, but I think it could take some time to really ramp up from an efficiency standpoint.
Trevor Lawrence was only 16-of-36 passing in the red zone with nine passing touchdowns last year and has a career completion rate under 50%. Burrow had 30 passing touchdowns in the red zone and a 58% completion rate. For his career, Burrow has a 58.6% completion rate in the red zone with a 94/8 TD/INT ratio. I trust Cincinnati to capitalize if they get the chance.
Brown was 10th in red zone carries last season with 45 and already has four this season, including the first TD of last week’s game against Cleveland. Chase led all WR with 33 red zone targets last season.
Dallas Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb +600, Javonte Williams +600, Jalen Tolbert +2200
The Cowboys struggled in the scoring first department last year, but they were at 64.7% in Brian Schottenheimer’s first year as the OC in 2023. Last season included the injury to Dak Prescott and a litany of other absences, so I’m willing to put some context into that. Last week, they played the Eagles, who are great at scoring first.
But, the Giants are terrible at it, so I feel like this is a reasonable endeavor. The Giants were 4/17 in 2023 and 4/17 in 2024. Plus, they failed to score a TD last week, so they are now 8/35 over the last two seasons and a week.
Lamb led the Cowboys with 18 red zone targets last year and had 27 of them back in 2023. Williams had three carries and scored two touchdowns. Tolbert was the only WR with a red zone target. Even with George Pickens in the mix, it seems like Schottenheimer likes what Tolbert can do and he had eight catches on 13 targets with a team-high seven red zone TDs last season. I’d be upset if Dallas scored first and I didn’t have him at a big number.
Los Angeles Chargers: Omarion Hampton +500, Ladd McConkey +900
The back seven for the Raiders has been revamped this season, as their top four players in pass breakups are all on different teams. But one constant for the defense is DC Patrick Graham, who was kept by Pete Carroll when he took over as head coach. The Raiders had a 22/0 TD/INT ratio against in the red zone last season. They allowed 13 rushing TD, but only 1.9 yards per carry, as they stepped up well in that department.
Hampton is included here because we know how much Jim Harbaugh likes to run the ball. The Chargers had 64 rushing attempts in the red zone compared to 51 pass attempts. Hampton had four red zone carries in the Week 1 win over the Chargers and appears to be the only option with Najee Harris limited. Harris could be the handcuff here, as he did have 46 red zone carries last season with the Steelers, but there’s just more trust in Hampton right now with a full preseason.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article in 2022-23 and the tracker.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Week 2 content in our Betting Hub.
