NFL First Touchdown
Week 3 is upon us and that means another opportunity to look at the NFL First Touchdown scorer market. The early part of the season is always interesting because we get to see how the new pieces and parts fit together, especially with red zone play-calling. New OCs and new QBs might like certain plays or have a better rapport with a certain player. Returning OCs and QBs might not find the same options open or available as the other team’s defense adjusts.
So far this season, we have eight teams that have scored first in both of their games and eight teams that have failed to score the first touchdown in each of their games. Some are teams you would expect in both categories, but some are teams that you absolutely would not.
Before we get to that, a few items to think about – we have QB injuries this week. One of them is Joe Burrow and the Bengals have been pretty good and more predictable than other teams in this department. It’s important to put the teams and their injury situations in the proper context, both for the 2024 and 2025 numbers.
I’ll continue to post the 2024 data for a few weeks, but before I get to the Week 2 results, let’s look at a breakdown by position.
QB: 5 (2024 regular season total: 46)
RB: 14 (2024 total: 190)
WR: 31 (2024 total: 198)
TE: 8 (2024 total: 63)
D/ST: 1 (2024 total: 21)
No TD: 5 (2024 total: 35)
2024 note: One offensive lineman scored a 1st TD last season; they are not listed at sportsbooks, so it was likely graded as ‘No Action’
Wow. Running backs only had four of the first touchdowns last week, while wide receivers had 20. That is the highest output for one position since I started tracking this at the beginning of last season. And I’d venture to guess that it’s the lowest output for the RB position in the 20-week span. Might be something, might be nothing. I guess it’s worth monitoring.
We have had 117 offensive touchdowns scored inside the red zone this season and 152 total rushing/receiving TDs, so perhaps we’re seeing some of the early scores come from beyond the 20. Just some more stuff to chew on and think about.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| 49ers | 2/2 (100%) |
| Bills | 2/2 (100%) |
| Broncos | 2/2 (100%) |
| Chargers | 2/2 (100%) |
| Falcons | 2/2 (100%) |
| Jaguars | 2/2 (100%) |
| Packers | 2/2 (100%) |
| Rams | 2/2 (100%) |
| Bears | 1/2 (50%) |
| Bengals | 1/2 (50%) |
| Cardinals | 1/2 (50%) |
| Colts | 1/2 (50%) |
| Commanders | 1/2 (50%) |
| Cowboys | 1/2 (50%) |
| Eagles | 1/2 (50%) |
| Giants | 1/2 (50%) |
| Lions | 1/2 (50%) |
| Patriots | 1/2 (50%) |
| Raiders | 1/2 (50%) |
| Ravens | 1/2 (50%) |
| Saints | 1/2 (50%) |
| Seahawks | 1/2 (50%) |
| Steelers | 1/2 (50%) |
| Texans | 1/2 (50%) |
| Browns | 0/2 (0%) |
| Bucs | 0/2 (0%) |
| Chiefs | 0/2 (0%) |
| Dolphins | 0/2 (0%) |
| Jets | 0/2 (0%) |
| Panthers | 0/2 (0%) |
| Titans | 0/2 (0%) |
| Vikings | 0/2 (0%) |
The eight perfect teams are at the top and the eight teams with a bagel in the first TD category are at the bottom. The Bucs and Vikings were both at 61.1% last season, but Minnesota obviously has some new pieces and parts and now no J.J. McCarthy this weekend.
The Rams were actually terrible at this last season, finishing 6/19, so it’s refreshing to see Sean McVay’s club scoring earlier. The Jaguars were actually 3/12 to start the season last year, scoring the first TD for the third time in Week 10. They can match that here in Week 3 if they score first.
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2024:
| Ravens | 16/19 (84.2%) |
| Eagles | 16/21 (76.2%) |
| Lions | 12/18 (66.7%) |
| Bengals | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Cardinals | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Colts | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Bucs | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Packers | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Vikings | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Texans | 11/19 (57.9%) |
| Chiefs | 11/20 (55%) |
| Falcons | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Patriots | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Commanders | 10/20 (50%) |
| Broncos | 9/18 (50%) |
| Chargers | 9/18 (50%) |
| Bills | 9/20 (45%) |
| 49ers | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Panthers | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Titans | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Seahawks | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Dolphins | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Jaguars | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Saints | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Cowboys | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Jets | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Raiders | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Rams | 6/19 (31.6%) |
| Bears | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Browns | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Giants | 4/17 (23.5%) |
| Steelers | 4/18 (22.2%) |
I’ll keep working in the 2024 numbers for another 2-3 weeks before just focusing on 2025.
With that, let’s get to the Week 3 action and look at some big mismatches from 2024 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible. As mentioned, I’ll include 2024 numbers for 2-3 weeks until we get some decent 2025 data.
NFL Week 3 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025 & 2024
Dolphins (0%; 41.2%) at Bills (100%; 45%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Packers (100%; 61.1%) vs. Browns (0%; 29.4%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Colts (50%; 64.7%) vs. Titans (0%; 47.1%)
Bengals (50%; 64.7%) vs. Vikings (0%; 61.1%)
Steelers (50%; 22.2%) vs. Patriots (50%; 52.9%)
Rams (100%; 31.6%) vs. Eagles (50%; 76.2%)
Jets (0%; 35.3%) vs. Buccaneers (0%; 61.1%)
Raiders (50%; 35.3%) vs. Commanders (50%; 50%)
Falcons (100%; 52.9%) vs. Panthers (0%; 47.1%)
Texans (50%; 57.9%) vs. Jaguars (100%; 41.2%)
Broncos (100%; 50%) vs. Chargers (100%; 50%) – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Saints (50%; 41.2%) vs. Seahawks (50%; 41.2%)
Cowboys (50%; 35.3%) vs. Bears (50%; 29.4%) – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Cardinals (50%; 64.7%) vs. 49ers (100%; 47.1%)
Chiefs (0%; 55%) vs. Giants (50%; 23.5%) – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Lions (50%; 66.7%) vs. Ravens (50%; 84.2%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 3 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs +220, Dontayvion Wicks +1200
Jacobs is the short shot, as he leads the league in red zone attempts entering Week 3. He’s basically an every-down back, as he has 42 carries to 13 for everybody else, including six for Jordan Love. It’s hard not to look at him simply because of the snap share and how probable it is that the Packers score first given how hopeless the Browns offense looked last week. It is a bummer that Tucker Kraft’s knee injury suffered in Thursday’s practice chopped this number down a bit.
Wicks is a pick I really like at 12/1. Jayden Reed broke his collarbone. Kraft’s status is questionable. I’m not sure that Love has a rapport with Matthew Golden yet, who does have a red zone carry, but no targets. The leader at WR in red zone targets last year was Wicks, who had 13 and made 10 catches with four TDs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans +700, Baker Mayfield +2200
It has been a slow start to the season for Evans, who has 10 catches for 107 yards. It was a slow Week 1 for Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow made sure to find him quickly, as Chase scored the first TD for his team, though not the first TD for the game. Much to my chagrin.
Anyway, Evans has never gone three straight regular season games without a TD with Mayfield as his QB. He’s at risk of that this week. The last time it happened for Evans was 2022 when he went 11 straight weeks. Hard to believe that Tom Brady couldn’t find him for a TD.
Anyway, Mayfield is the long shot here with the offensive line injuries. He hasn’t had to scramble in the red zone yet this season, but did have nine carries for 37 yards and three TD in the red zone last season and 13 red zone attempts two years ago. Also, WR had 12 of the 18 first team TDs for the Bucs last season, so they do prefer throwing in the red zone, opening the door for both guys here.
Seattle Seahawks: Kenneth Walker III +500, Jaxon Smith-Njigba +650
Nothing fancy and nothing special here, but I really like that OC Klint Kubiak can go up against his former employer here. He knows the defensive personnel from going against them every day in practice. Even if the scheme is different for Brandon Staley compared to Joe Woods, Kubiak should still know which weaknesses he can exploit.
There has not been a single red zone target for a WR yet for Seattle, but that has to change. TEs AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo have gotten the only targets. In fact, Walker (5) and Charbonnet (6) have been the busiest in terms of red zone touches. But, I do expect that the Seahawks score first and I think it’ll be either their primary back who had a big day last week or the guy with 23 of the team’s 52 targets and 17 of the team’s 38 catches.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article in 2022-23 and the tracker.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Week 3 content in our Betting Hub.
