NFL First Touchdown
Offense took a dive in Week 2, as we saw several teams fail to find the end zone and red-zone success really fell off. Teams collectively started 70-for-105 in the red zone for a 66.7% success rate. After two weeks, teams are 123/202, as we saw less than 55% of trips inside the 20 go for six across last week’s action. In Week 1, only three teams failed to score a red-zone TD. The number was much higher in Week 2.
Oh, and the poor Falcons, who we are subjected to watching in primetime the next three weeks, haven’t had a red-zone trip yet.
In Week 1, Jonathan Taylor (+400) and Parker Washington (+850) were first TD winners. Last week, this article caught Derrick Henry (+285) and CeeDee Lamb (+800). I can’t promise that two of them will come through each week, but you can find some usage patterns and also highlight the teams that are doing well when it comes to scoring first.
Before digging into Week 3, let’s look back at Week 2. I like to track first team TDs by position to see if there are any league-wide trends we can pick up on in terms of red-zone usage. The second number in parentheses is from last season; the first is from this season. I’ll remove that probably after this week.
QB: 2 (7; 36)
RB: 11 (23; 176)
WR: 10 (19; 187)
TE: 3 (8; 82)
D/ST: 0 (1; 26)
No TD: 6 (6; 36)
Six teams without a TD. Brutal. Everything else seemed pretty status quo. We likely would have had another TE or two based on the weekly averages if we hadn’t had over 18% of the league without a tuddy. All 32 teams scored a TD in Week 1.
Also, 10 of the 32 teams scored on their first possession in Week 1. Last season’s success rate on first drives was 26%. Only six teams scored on their first possession in Week 2, so that was below the average we should expect to see.
This is helpful info for the First Touchdown Scorer market, but also when betting first quarters and first halves. Some coaches are better with the scripted drive than others. Also, I track whether or not a team scored on its first possession in the First Touchdown Scorer spreadsheet, put together by our Executive Producer Stephanie Kamerschak, who did this article the first few seasons for us.
2026 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Bengals | 2/2 (100%) |
| Colts | 2/2 (100%) |
| Jaguars | 2/2 (100%) |
| Packers | 2/2 (100%) |
| Panthers | 2/2 (100%) |
| Patriots | 2/2 (100%) |
| Raiders | 2/2 (100%) |
| Rams | 2/2 (100%) |
| 49ers | 1/2 (50%) |
| Bills | 1/2 (50%) |
| Buccaneers | 1/2 (50%) |
| Cardinals | 1/2 (50%) |
| Chiefs | 1/2 (50%) |
| Cowboys | 1/2 (50%) |
| Eagles | 1/2 (50%) |
| Falcons | 1/2 (50%) |
| Giants | 1/2 (50%) |
| Jets | 1/2 (50%) |
| Lions | 1/2 (50%) |
| Ravens | 1/2 (50%) |
| Seahawks | 1/2 (50%) |
| Texans | 1/2 (50%) |
| Titans | 1/2 (50%) |
| Bears | 0/2 (0%) |
| Broncos | 0/2 (0%) |
| Browns | 0/2 (0%) |
| Chargers | 0/2 (0%) |
| Commanders | 0/2 (0%) |
| Dolphins | 0/2 (0%) |
| Saints | 0/2 (0%) |
| Steelers | 0/2 (0%) |
| Vikings | 0/2 (0%) |
Not sure that there are any big surprises with the team results thus far.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 15/17 (88.2%) |
| Seahawks | 15/20 (75%) |
| Jaguars | 13/18 (72.2%) |
| Eagles | 12/18 (66.7%) |
| Lions | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Packers | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Rams | 12/20 (60%) |
| Bucs | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Giants | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Broncos | 11/19 (57.9%) |
| Browns | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Cowboys | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Ravens | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| 49ers | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Bears | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Bills | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Texans | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Steelers | 9/18 (50%) |
| Bengals | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Dolphins | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Chargers | 8/18 (44.4%) |
| Chiefs | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Falcons | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Panthers | 7/18 (38.9%) |
| Cardinals | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Titans | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Vikings | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Commanders | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Raiders | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Jets | 3/17 (17.6%) |
| Saints | 3/17 (17.6%) |
Some nuggets from Week 2:
- Seven teams have had the same first team TD scorer in each of their first two games – Bills (Allen), Panthers (Hubbard), Browns (Boston), Cowboys (Lamb), Lions (Gibbs), Chargers (Hampton), Seahawks (JSN)
- The only rookies to have a first team TD are Jeremiyah Love (ARI), Denzel Boston (CLE), Eli Raridon (NE), and Kenyon Sadiq (NYJ)
- The Panthers and Colts are the only teams to score on their first possession in each game
For the first few weeks, I will include the 2025 percentages, as the 2026 sample size just isn’t really big enough to be significant. As we get more data, I’ll drop 2025 from this matchup section.
With that, let’s get to the Week 3 action and look at some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible
NFL Week 3 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2026 & 2025
Falcons (50%; 41.2%) at Packers (50%; 61.1%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
—
Chargers (0%; 44.4%) at Bills (50%; 52.6%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Panthers (100%; 38.9%) at Browns (0%; 52.9%)
Jets (50%; 17.6%) at Lions (50%; 64.7%)
Texans (50%; 52.6%) at Colts (100%; 88.2%)
Chiefs (50%; 41.2%) at Dolphins (0%; 47.1%)
Titans (50%; 35.3%) at Giants (50%; 58.8%)
Bengals (100%; 47.1%) at Steelers (0%; 50%)
Seahawks (50%; 75%) at Commanders (0%; 29.4%)
Patriots (100%; 42.9%) at Jaguars (100%; 72.2%)
—
Cardinals (50%; 35.3%) at 49ers (50%; 52.6%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Vikings (0%; 35.3%) at Buccaneers (50%; 58.8%)
—
Ravens (50%; 52.9%) at Cowboys (50%; 52.9%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Raiders (100%; 29.4%) at Saints (0%; 17.6%)
—
Rams (100%; 60%) at Broncos (0%; 57.9%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
—
Eagles (50%; 66.7%) at Bears (0%; 52.6%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 3 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Buffalo Bills: James Cook (+475), Khalil Shakir (+1000)
So far, Josh Allen has two rushing touchdowns to open the scoring for the Bills, but I don’t think he’ll continue that torrid pace. Cook was fourth in red-zone rush attempts last season with 56 and was a five-time first team TD scorer and three-time first TD of the game scorer. Interestingly, Cook only had three red-zone targets last season. He already has two through two games this season, so maybe that’ll be a bigger wrinkle of Joe Brady and Pete Carmichael’s offense.
As for Shakir, he led the Bills with 14 red-zone targets last season and had a couple of first team TDs. This season, he’s played 67 snaps and has 12 targets, so Allen is looking his way when he’s out there. The receiver usage has been all over the map for the Bills thus far, as Keon Coleman (74%) led all WR against the Lions, while D.J. Moore (76%) had the most snaps against the Texans. Despite a lower snap count, Shakir has more targets than both of them and I think he’s still Allen’s most trusted WR in the scoring areas.
Thinking we might get a slow start from the Chargers, who did not score the first TD in road games at NYG, MIA, TEN, JAX, KC, DAL, or NE last season. In fact, they only scored the first TD in one of their road games and it was in Las Vegas.
Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+600), Emanuel Wilson (+950)
JSN is 2-for-2 for the Seahawks so far this season and it looks like he should be getting Sam Darnold back for this one. Through two games, JSN has six red-zone targets and three catches. No other WR has caught a ball. TE Eric Saubert had a catch for -10 yards last week and AJ Barner had a rushing TD, but no targets.
Wilson had a big effort with 21 carries for 92 yards last week. Wilson had 21 carries on 29 snaps, so when he was out there, he got the rock. Game state certainly mattered, as the Seahawks won big and had their backup QB in the game. But, still, Wilson had seven red-zone carries and played 11 more snaps than George Holani, who is priced at 10/1. Jadarian Price has a short number at +650, but he only has three of the team’s 15 red-zone rushing attempts so far and he’s the only back without a target in the red zone.
With the Commanders lacking severely in this department last season and now turning to Marcus Mariota, hopefully the Seahawks do start fast and score first.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Jakobi Meyers (+1200), Trevor Lawrence (+1500)
Going to avoid Parker Washington and Bhayshul Tuten here and look for some guys who might not be focal points for the Patriots defense in the red zone.
Meyers has run quite a bit of cardio this season, as he only has three catches on 90 snaps, but he’s been the WR on the field most frequently for the Jags, racking up a 65% snap share against Cleveland and a 90% snap share against Denver. I think players are keenly aware of situations for their teammates and Meyers was with the Patriots from 2019-22. He had 61 targets in just nine games for the Jags last season, but hasn’t found many touches so far this season. I think Lawrence will try to feed him.
On the Lawrence front, he was actually third in red-zone rushing attempts among QBs, trailing Allen and Jalen Hurts. His nine rushing scores were second to Allen. I’ll take my chances here with that.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season.
