Week 3 NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 3. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams in the NFL that start their seasons 0-2 SU and ATS are 20-22 SU but 30-12 ATS (71.4%) in week 3 when playing as underdogs since 2015
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+4.5 at GB), MIAMI (+11.5 vs KC), LA CHARGERS (+7 at BUF), TAMPA BAY (+1.5 vs MIN)
* CINCINNATI is on an incredible 19-1 SU and 18-2 ATS run as a road favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-3.5 at PIT)
* NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have fared well in their follow-up game, going 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS (73.3%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+4.5 vs PHI)
* Since 2015, Week 3 games involving road favorites and totals of 44 or higher have gone Under the total at a 27-9 (75%) rate.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): KC-MIA (o/u at 46.5), LAR-DEN (o/u at 45.5)
* NY GIANTS’ Jameis Winston is on 12-2 Over the total surge vs. poor teams with point differentials of -4.5 PPG or less
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TEN-NYG (o/u at 39.5)
*Atlanta is 17-4 to the Under in their last 21 primetime games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-GB (o/u at 42.5)
* Since 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks (who have started extensively on a different team) in their first seasons with their new organization have gone 39-34 SU and 49-24 ATS (67.1%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+3 at NO)
#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS: BUFFALO -7 vs LAC (projections have line at BUF -10.8)
Avoid These Week 3 NFL Traps
These are systems that look at the NFL Week 3 slate while considering what the teams have accomplished in their first two games.
1) Teams that start out 0-2 SU in the NFL are 33-29 SU and 42-19-1 ATS (68.9%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+4.5 at GB), TENNESSEE (+2.5 at NYG)
2) Teams in the NFL that start their seasons 0-2 SU and ATS are 20-22 SU but 30-12 ATS (71.4%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs since 2015
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+4.5 at GB), MIAMI (+11.5 vs KC), LA CHARGERS (+7 at BUF), TAMPA BAY (+1.5 vs MIN)
3) Teams in the NFL that start their seasons 1-1 SU are just 10-28 SU and 14-24 ATS (36.8%) when playing as underdogs of +3.5 or higher in Week 3 since 2016
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+3.5 vs CIN), NY JETS (+6.5 at DET), ARIZONA (+8.5 at SF)
4) Teams allowing more than 6.50 yards per play in the first two weeks have rebounded in Week 3 with a record of 28-17 SU and 29-16 ATS (64.4%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY GIANTS (-2.5 vs TEN), INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5 vs HOU)
5) The league’s best defensive teams after two weeks, or those allowing 14 PPG or less so far, are 25-21 SU but just 14-31-1 ATS (31.1%) in Week 3 since 2005 when favored by 3 points or more.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-7 at WAS), SAN FRANCISCO (-8.5 vs ARI)
6) Teams gaining more than 6.75 yards per play in the first two weeks have continued their impressive play in Week 3 with a record of 20-9 SU and ATS (69%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO (-7 vs LAC), BALTIMORE (-3.5 vs DAL)
7) Over the last decade, the highest-scoring teams in the league after two weeks, or those scoring more than 31 PPG, have gone just 16-18 SU and 11-23 ATS (32.4%) in Week 3 when not matched up against a similarly prolific offense.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO (-7 vs LAC), CAROLINA (-2.5 at CLE), KANSAS CITY (-11.5 at MIA)
8) Since 2008, the league’s best undefeated teams after two weeks, those having outscored teams by 25 points or more, are 28-24 SU but 19-31-2 ATS (38%) in Week 3.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-7 at WAS), SAN FRANCISCO (-8.5 vs ARI), LAS VEGAS (+3 at NO)
9) Since 2015, Week 3 games involving road favorites and totals of 44 or higher have gone Under the total at a 27-9 (75%) rate.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): KC-MIA (o/u at 46.5), LAR-DEN (o/u at 45.5)
10) Since 2016, Week 3 games involving any team scoring 15.0 PPG or fewer in their first two outings have Over the total at a 29-15 (65.9%) rate.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ATL-GB (o/u at 42.5), CIN-PIT (o/u at 42.5), TEN-NYG (o/u at 39.5), NE-JAX (o/u at 45.5), KC-MIA (o/u at 46.5), LAC-BUF (o/u at 50.5), LAR-DEN (o/u at 45.5)
Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(301) ATLANTA (0-2) at (302) GREEN BAY (1-1)
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 26-18-1 SU but 16-29 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-4.5 vs ATL)
* ATLANTA is 22-6 Under the total on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 18-9 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ATL-GB (o/u at 42.5)
(461) SEATTLE (2-0) at (462) WASHINGTON (0-2)
* SEATTLE is 21-5 Under the total as road favorite vs. non-divisional NFC foes since 2013
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-WAS (o/u at 40.5)
* WASHINGTON is 25-41 ATS (37.9%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+7 vs SEA)
(463) CINCINNATI (2-0) at (464) PITTSBURGH (1-1)
* CINCINNATI is on an incredible 19-1 SU and 18-2 ATS run as a road favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2015
* CINCINNATI is 76-62 SU and 84-54 ATS when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2012
* PITTSBURGH is 19-15 SU and 20-13-1 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS CINCINNATI, 1 PLAY PITTSBURGH
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 17-7 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
* PITTSBURGH is 112-79 Under the total (58.6%) since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-PIT (o/u at 42.5)
(465) NY JETS (1-1) at (466) DETROIT (1-1)
* NY JETS own ugly 13-53 SU and 22-42 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016
* NY JETS are 15-33 ATS (31.3%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on a 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS streak coming off an outright loss
* DETROIT is 27-15-1 ATS (64.3%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is 17-10 SU and 21-7 ATS when playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-6.5 vs NYJ)
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is 16-11 Under the total in games after allowing 30+ points since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYJ-DET (o/u at 47.5)
(467) TENNESSEE (0-2) at (468) NY GIANTS (1-1)
* TENNESSEE is 22-20 SU and 25-16 ATS when coming off a home loss since 2015
* TENNESSEE is on a 10-44 SU and 15-38-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
* NY GIANTS are 16-26 SU but 25-15 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2011
* NY GIANTS’ Jameis Winston is on a skid of 1-7 SU and 0-7-1 ATS vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS TENNESSEE, 2 PLAYS NY GIANTS
* NY GIANTS are 62-40 Under the total (60.8%) since 2020
* NY GIANTS’ Jameis Winston is on 12-2 Over the total surge vs. poor teams with point differentials of -4.5 PPG or less
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in TEN-NYG (o/u at 39.5)
(469) NEW ENGLAND (1-1) at (470) JACKSONVILLE (1-1)
* NEW ENGLAND is 20-29-3 ATS (40.8%) as an underdog since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (+3 at JAX)
* JACKSONVILLE is 33-44 ATS (42.9%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
Trend Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (-3 vs NE)
(471) KANSAS CITY (2-0) at (472) MIAMI (0-2)
* KANSAS CITY is 23-11 SU but 8-24 ATS when coming off a game of scoring 30+ points since 2020
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes is 36-2 SU but 14-23-1 ATS (37.8%) in his last 38 games as a favorite of more than 7 points. The average line was -10.7. Team average PF: 27.8
* MIAMI is 64-35 ATS (64.6%) at home since 2014
* MIAMI is 56-47 ATS (54.4%) as an underdog since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+11.5 vs KC)
(473) HOUSTON (0-2) at (474) INDIANAPOLIS (0-2)
* INDIANAPOLIS’ Shane Steichen is on a 16-3 SU and 14-5 ATS run vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
* INDIANAPOLIS’ Daniel Jones is 17-21 SU but 22-17 ATS with his team coming off an outright loss since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5 vs HOU)
* INDIANAPOLIS’ Daniel Jones is 34-17 Under the total as an underdog since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-IND (o/u at 42.5)
(475) CAROLINA (1-1) at (476) CLEVELAND (1-1)
* CAROLINA is 17-35 ATS (32.7%) as a favorite since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (-2.5 at CLE)
* CLEVELAND is 38-47 ATS (44.7%) at home since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs CAR)
(477) LA CHARGERS (0-2) at (478) BUFFALO (2-0)
* LA CHARGERS’ Justin Herbert is 10-3 SU and 9-3-1 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2021
* BUFFALO is 45-33 ATS (57.7%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
Trends Match: 1 PLAY LA CHARGERS, 1 PLAY BUFFALO
* LA CHARGERS are on a 34-15 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on a 20-7 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-BUF (o/u at 50.5)
(479) MINNESOTA (2-0) at (480) TAMPA BAY (0-2)
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 87-62 SU and 93-55-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA’s Kyler Murray is just 7-11 SU and 6-12 ATS in his last 18 starts as a favorite
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (-1.5 at TB)
* TAMPA BAY is 31-43 ATS (41.9%) when coming off a SU loss since 2016
* TAMPA BAY is 39-59 ATS (39.8%) at home since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+1.5 vs MIN)
* MINNESOTA’s Kyler Murray is 12-1 Over the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2022
* MINNESOTA is 66-56 Over the total (54.1%) since 2019
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is 14-8 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2017
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-TB (o/u at 42.5)
(481) ARIZONA (1-1) at (482) SAN FRANCISCO (2-0)
* ARIZONA is 13-25 ATS (34.2%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* ARIZONA is 36-26 ATS (58.1%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 36-28 ATS (56.3%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+8.5 at SF)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is 5-7 SU and 2-10 ATS in his last 12 starts following up a game in which his team scored 30+ points
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is just 15-8 SU but 11-12 ATS in his last 23 vs. teams with lesser records
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 18-3 SU and ATS in its last 21 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of SAN FRANCISCO (-8.5 vs ARI)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 48-31 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ARI-SF (o/u at 47.5)
(483) LAS VEGAS (2-0) at (484) NEW ORLEANS (1-1)
* LAS VEGAS is 8-8 SU and 12-4 ATS when coming off a game allowing <=14 points since 2020
* LAS VEGAS is 40-55 ATS (42.1%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LAS VEGAS (+3 at NO)
* NEW ORLEANS is 27-47 ATS (36.5%) at home since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-3 vs LVR)
(485) BALTIMORE (1-1) at (486) DALLAS (1-1)
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is on runs of 8-5 SU and 8-4 ATS vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
* BALTIMORE is 49-27 ATS (64.5%) in road/neutral games since 2017
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is on a 5-14-1 SU and 7-13 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-3.5 at DAL)
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 14-2 Over the total with his team coming off a home win since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-DAL (o/u at 52.5)
(487) LA RAMS (1-1) at (488) DENVER (1-1)
* LA RAMS are 18-8 SU and 18-7 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-2.5 at DEN)
* LA RAMS’s Matthew Stafford is 24-12 Over the total with his team playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
* DENVER is 111-75 Under the total (59.7%) since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in LAR-DEN (o/u at 45.5)
(489) PHILADELPHIA (2-0) at (490) CHICAGO (1-1)
* CHICAGO is 27-37-1 ATS (42.2%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 38-44 ATS (46.3%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CHICAGO is 36-46-1 ATS (43.9%) as an underdog since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+4.5 vs PHI)
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
CRAZY LOW SCORING GAMES COMMAND ATTENTION
NFL teams that have won a game despite scoring less than 12 points in the victory have carried the momentum through the next game with a 22-14 SU and 23-12-1 ATS (65.7%) record.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-1.5 at TB)
Alternatively to above, NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS (73.3%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+4.5 vs PHI)
DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 24-42 SU but 43-23 ATS (65.2%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+8.5 at SF)
TURNOVERS ARE KEY HANDICAPPING STATISTIC
NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 6 18 SU and 4-20 ATS (16.7%) in their last 24 tries.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+4.5 at GB)
LOW-SCORING LOSERS BOUNCE BACK AS DIVISIONAL UNDERDOGS
Teams that scored poorly (<= 10 points) in their previous game loss have been solid bets as divisional underdogs in the next contest, going 35-65 SU but 63-34-3 ATS (64.9%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+3.5 vs CIN), ARIZONA (+8.5 at SF)
TNF, SNF, and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 31-24 SU but 20-33-2 ATS (37.7%) in the last 55.
System Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-4.5 vs ATL)
There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 4+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 24-24 SU and 30-17-1 ATS (63.8%) record.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+4.5 at GB)
TNF Team Trends
*Atlanta 3-5 SU and ATS skid in the last eight
*Green Bay 8-5 SU and 8-3-2 ATS in the last 13
Trends Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-4.5 vs ATL)
*Atlanta 7-2 to the Under in the last nine
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-GB (o/u at 42.5)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 22-27-1 SU but 29-19-2 ATS (60.4%) dating back to 2017.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+2.5 vs LAR)
In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 28-27 SU and 22-31-2 ATS (41.5%) in the last 55. Under the total is also 32-15 (68.1%) in the last 47.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+2.5 vs LAR)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-DEN (o/u at 45.5)
Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 17-27-1 SU and 19-25-1 ATS (43.2%) in their last 45, but those coming off a win are on a current 33-11 SU and 25-19 ATS (56.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+2.5 vs LAR)
More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 21-27-1 SU and 21-28 ATS (42.9%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-2.5 at DEN)
SNF Team Trends
*Denver 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS skid
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (+2.5 vs LAR)
*LA Rams 8-2 Under since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-DEN (o/u at 45.5)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 18-21 SU but 21-17-1 ATS (55.3%) dating back to September 2021. The last 37 of these games have seen Under the total go 24-11-2 (68.6%) as well, games producing just 41.3 PPG.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CHICAGO (+4.5 vs PHI)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-CHI (o/u at 41.5)
In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on an 27-23 SU and 31-19 ATS (62%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+4.5 vs PHI)
Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 51-44 SU but just 38-55-2 ATS (40.9%) in the last 95 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 at CHI)
MNF Team Trends
*Chicago 10-5-1 Under in the last 16
*Philadelphia 14-3-1 Under in the last 18
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-CHI (o/u at 41.5)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good Primetime (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
*Green Bay 20-9-1 SU and 21-8-1 ATS in the last 30
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-4.5 vs PHI)
Bad Primetime (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
*Chicago 5-15 SU and 8-12 ATS in the last 20
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+4.5 vs PHI)
*Denver 13-22 SU and 11-22-2 ATS in the last 35
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (+2.5 vs LAR)
Under the total Primetime (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
*Atlanta 17-4 to the Under in the last 21
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-GB (o/u at 42.5)
*Denver 21-7 Under since 2017
*LA Rams 19-9 Under surge
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-DEN (o/u at 45.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(301) ATLANTA at (302) GREEN BAY
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Falcons-Packers series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-GB (o/u at 42.5)
(461) SEATTLE at (462) WASHINGTON
* Road teams are 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight meetings between Seattle and Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-7 at WAS)
(463) CINCINNATI at (464) PITTSBURGH
* PITTSBURGH is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS versus Pittsburgh in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3.5 vs CIN)
(465) NY JETS at (466) DETROIT
* Underdogs are 5-4 SU and 7-2 ATS in the Jets-Lions non-conference set since 1994
Trend Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+6.5 at DET)
(467) TENNESSEE at (468) NY GIANTS
* Road teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of the Titans-Giants series
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+2.5 at NYG)
(469) NEW ENGLAND at (470) JACKSONVILLE
* Home teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six non-neutral matchups between New England and Jacksonville
Trend Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (-3 vs NE)
(471) KANSAS CITY at (472) MIAMI
* KANSAS CITY is on a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS surge versus Miami
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-11.5 at MIA)
(473) HOUSTON at (474) INDIANAPOLIS
* Underdogs are 3-4-1 SU and 7-1 ATS in last eight of the Texans-Colts AFC South rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5 vs HOU)
(475) CAROLINA at (476) CLEVELAND
* Underdogs have covered the last four meetings between CAR and CLE
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs CAR)
(477) LA CHARGERS at (478) BUFFALO
* Home teams are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the Chargers-Bills series
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-7 vs LAC)
(479) MINNESOTA at (480) TAMPA BAY
* TAMPA BAY is 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight instances hosting Minnesota
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+1.5 vs MIN)
(481) ARIZONA at (482) SAN FRANCISCO
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the Cardinals-49ers NFC West rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ARI-SF (o/u at 47.5)
(483) LAS VEGAS at (484) NEW ORLEANS
* LAS VEGAS is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings with New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+3 at NO)
(485) BALTIMORE at (486) DALLAS
* Over the total is 5-0-1 in the last six of the Ravens-Cowboys non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-DAL (o/u at 52.5)
(487) LA RAMS at (488) DENVER
* Underdogs have covered the last seven matchups between LAR and DEN (5-2 SU)
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+2.5 vs LAR)
(489) PHILADELPHIA at (490) CHICAGO
* Underdogs are 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the Eagles-Bears series at Soldier Field
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+4.5 vs PHI)
* Under the total has converted in the last five of their overall set as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-CHI (o/u at 41.5)
NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2026 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Mike LaFleur (Arizona), Jesse Minter (Baltimore), Joe Brady (Buffalo), Todd Monken (Cleveland), Klint Kubiak (Las Vegas), and Jeff Hafley (Miami) as well as re-tread coaches Kevin Stefanski (Atlanta), John Harbaugh (NY Giants), Mike McCarthy (Pittsburgh), and Robert Saleh (Tennessee).
Rookie Coach Systems
(Games this week: LAC-BUF(-7), KC-MIA(+11.5), CAR-CLE(+2.5), BAL(-3.5)-DAL, LVR(+3)-NO, ARI(+8.5)-SF)
Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 168-188-10 ATS (47.2%). Road/Neutral games – 194-176-6 ATS (52.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, MIAMI, CLEVELAND
As smaller favorites of -4 or fewer, rookie head coaches have gone 100-73 SU but 74-88-10 ATS (45.7%) over the last decade.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE
Ironically, it’s in the games where coaching figures to matter most (+1 to +3 small underdog lines) where rookie head coaches are able to hold their own best against the point spread. Their record in this line window over the last decade is 72-80-2 SU and 84-68-2 ATS (55.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, LAS VEGAS
In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Take a look at these ATS winning percentages by opponent type since 2016: Divisional games 126-137-4 ATS (47.9%)
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA
Among the key challenges new head coaches face is stringing wins together and keeping the team galvanized after losses. Rookie head coaches have been better at the latter. When coming off of losses, rookie head coaches own a record of 100-111-1 ATS (47.4%) since December 2020. After wins, they’ve done reasonably worse in that same time frame, 69-85-6 ATS (44.8%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, CLEVELAND, LAS VEGAS
Retread Coach Systems
(Games this week: ATL(+4.5)-GB, CIN-PIT(+3.5), TEN(+2.5)-NYG(-2.5))
Unlike the rookies head coaches, retread head coaches more proficient at covering point spreads at home since 2020. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 62-54 ATS (53.4%). Road/Neutral games – 57-63 ATS (47.5%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY GIANTS
Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2015, they’ve gone 106-70 SU but just 70-95-11 ATS, for 42.4%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 86-185 SU and 133-132-6 ATS (50.2%).
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS
Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons quite successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2016, in games #1-#8 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 65-105 ATS (38.2%), while in Weeks #9 and later, they’ve gone 97-86 ATS (53%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, PITTSBURGH, TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS
There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 145-182 ATS (44.3%) in that same time span.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, PITTSBURGH, TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS
NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems
These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Kirk Cousins (Las Vegas), Geno Smith (NY Jets), and Kyler Murray (Minnesota).
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Veteran quarterbacks start slow for their new teams
It takes a little time for these veteran quarterbacks to find their footing with their new franchises. In fact, dating back to 2006, in the month of September, these guys have gone 49-33-1 Under the total (59.8%), averaging about 1.5 PPG less than usual offensively.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYJ-DET (o/u at 47.5), LVR-NO (o/u at 43.5), MIN-TB (o/u at 42.5)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks are trending extremely negatively on the road
The results since 2021 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams on the road have been brutal, as they are just 29-54 SU and 33-50 ATS (39.8%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY JETS (+6.5 at DET), LAS VEGAS (+3 at NO), MINNESOTA (-1.5 at TB)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 92-80 SU and 94-76-2 ATS (55.3%).
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-1.5 at TB)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Non-conference matchups have been an absolute struggle for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams over the last five years
Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 17-34 SU and 15-36 ATS (29.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY JETS (+6.5 at DET), LAS VEGAS (+3 at NO)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QB’s have shown an inability to string win streaks together recently
In their last 69 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 33-36 SU and 28-40-1 ATS (41.2%). This trend dates back to 2021.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LAS VEGAS (+3 at NO), MINNESOTA (-1.5 at TB)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks have been atrocious in the road favorite role with new teams
Since 2021, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 12-17-1 SU and 7-22-1 ATS (24.1%).
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-1.5 at TB)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as smaller road underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 39-34 SU and 49-24 ATS (67.1%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer. The last 25 such games are 17-8 Under the total (68%) as well.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+3 at NO)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-NO (o/u at 43.5)
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published in the 2026 VSiN NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday at 3:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Here is a quick tabulation of how DK bettors performed in the 2025 season:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-138 ATS (50.5%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 133-145 ATS (47.8%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-135 (51.4%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 139-142 (49.5%)
The most interesting observation from last year’s bettors’ performances in the categories is that the majority handle groups were plus-.500 while the majority number of bets groups were sub-.500. Many pro bettors believe that handle represents a slightly sharper opinion while number of bets measures the public masses and thus is perhaps less sharp.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a road side of an ATS wager, this majority group boasts a 70-51 ATS (57.9%) record for +13.9 units and an ROI of +11.5%! There has been a lot of debate in recent years in regards to the true value of home field advantage, and it seems when bettors put less stock in it, they win.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY, CAROLINA, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, SEATTLE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games since the start of the 2022 season, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 218-258 ATS (45.8%) for -65.8 units. With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t’ value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, SAN FRANCISCO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 217-262 ATS (45.3%) for -71.2 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, INDIANAPOLIS, SAN FRANCISCO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games since the start of the 2023 season, DK majority handle groups have been quite sharp, going 126-106 ATS (54.3%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CAROLINA, NY GIANTS, DETROIT, DALLAS, LAS VEGAS, LA RAMS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets has backed a team in non-divisional conference tilts with smaller lines (6.5-point favorites or less), these groups have produced an outstanding 138-113 ATS (55%) record for +13.7 units. We will be tracking this one for the first time this season, as it has some sense to it, with bettors winning more when avoiding the larger spread games.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GREEN BAY, JACKSONVILLE, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: What is the definition of a “big public favorite” that savvy bettors should be willing to fade? Well, over the last three years, when a “super-majority” handle of 77% or higher got behind an NFL favored team of 6.5 points or more, these groups have gone just 14-26 ATS (35%) for -14.6 units and an ROI of -36.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, SEATTLE, SAN FRANCISCO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, these majority groups are just 139-155 ATS (47.3%) and 138-153 ATS (47.4%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GREEN BAY, PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: Number of bets majority groups have been very sharp judging games when there is exactly a one-game win difference between two teams in a matchup. The teams they have gotten behind boast an amazing 144-109 ATS (56.9%) record for +24.1 units over the L3 seasons. The highlight of the one-win separation games has been when bettors back the road team, as these majority groups have gone 82-56 ATS for 59.4% and +20.4 units of profit.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GREEN BAY, CINCINNATI, TENNESSEE, SAN FRANCISCO, NEW ORLEANS, PHILADELPHIA
*Alternatively, when there is a difference of two or more wins in the standings, these majority number of bets groups have struggled to a 184-202 ATS (47.7%) mark.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, BUFFALO, SEATTLE, MINNESOTA
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Over the last two years, it ballooned back up to 44.8. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last three years, going 163-125 ATS (56.6%)!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAC-BUF, NYJ-DET, ARI-SF, BAL-DAL
UNDER – KC-MIA
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of BETS has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last three seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 65-56 ATS (53.7%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-PIT
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 84-107 (43.9%) for -33.7 units (2-3 for -1.3 units in 2026). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): LAC-BUF, SEA-WAS, NYJ-DET, BAL-DAL
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost regularly, going just 109-123 (47%) for -26.3 units over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over.
System Match (PLAY UNDER INSTEAD): SEA-WAS
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). MIAMI +11.5 (+3.3)
PITTSBURGH +3.5 (+3.3)
3. INDIANAPOLIS +2.5 (+2.8)
4(tie). NEW ENGLAND +3 (+2.3)
CLEVELAND +2.5 (+2.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUFFALO -7 (+3.8)
2. GREEN BAY -4.5 (+3.5)
3. SAN FRANCISCO -8.5 (+3.1)
4. DETROIT -6.5 (+2.7)
5. NEW ORLEANS -3 (+1.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PITTSBURGH +3.5 (+4.3)
2. INDIANAPOLIS +2.5 (+3.2)
3. MIAMI +11.5 (+2.5)
4. ARIZONA +8.5 (+2.2)
5. CLEVELAND +2.5 (+1.6)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GREEN BAY -4.5 (+4.6)
2. SEATTLE -7 (+4.2)
3. DETROIT -6.5 (+3.7)
4. BUFFALO -7 (+0.9)
5. MINNESOTA -1.5 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-IND OVER 42.5 (+3.0)
2(tie). TEN-NYG OVER 39.5 (+1.2)
MIN-TB OVER 42.5 (+1.2)
4. CAR-CLE OVER 42.5 (+0.9)
5. NYJ-DET OVER 47.5 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. KC-MIA UNDER 46.5 (-2.0)
2. LAR-DEN UNDER 45.5 (-1.7)
3. BAL-DAL UNDER 52.5 (-1.6)
4. NE-JAX UNDER 45.5 (-0.7)
5. LAC-BUF UNDER 50.5 (-0.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANAPOLIS +2.5 (+4.7)
2. NEW ENGLAND +3 (+3.8)
3. PITTSBURGH +3.5 (+2.7)
4. DENVER +2.5 (+2.5)
5. MIAMI +11.5 (+2.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GREEN BAY -4.5 (+4.0)
2. BUFFALO -7 (+3.5)
3. SAN FRANCISCO -8.5 (+3.3)
4. DETROIT -6.5 (+1.9)
5. MINNESOTA -1.5 (+1.8)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-GB OVER 42.5 (+3.6)
2. HOU-IND OVER 42.5 (+2.4)
3. CIN-PIT OVER 42.5 (+1.3)
4. PHI-CHI OVER 41.5 (+0.8)
5. MIN-TB OVER 42.5 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BAL-DAL UNDER 52.5 (-2.1)
2. KC-MIA UNDER 46.5 (-1.9)
3. LAC-BUF UNDER 50.5 (-1.3)
4. CAR-CLE UNDER 42.5 (-0.8)
5. NYJ-DET UNDER 47.5 (-0.6)
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