NFL First Touchdown
We’re on to Week 4 in our quest to find First Touchdown Scorers. Each week adds more data points for us to consider so that we can aim our darts at certain areas of the board. Sometimes these won’t work out for first TDs, but will work out for anytime TDs, which is what happened last week, as James Cook and Jaxon Smith-Njigba didn’t score first, though JSN did score the first TD for the Seahawks, who had already given one up. Nevertheless, I think it’s pretty valuable information for betting into the FTD and the ATD markets.
Hopefully this week’s article gets back to its winning ways after having two First Touchdown Scorers per week in Weeks 1 and 2. Again, with 10 new head coaches and a lot of new play-callers, it might take a little bit of time and some sample size to see what their red-zone tendencies might be. It also takes time – and sometimes injury – to see which players get preferential treatment from the QB in the scoring areas. Each week helps in that respect.
Before digging into Week 3, let’s look back at Week 2. I like to track first team TDs by position to see if there are any league-wide trends we can pick up on in terms of red-zone usage. The number in parentheses is how many we’ve had this season by position.
QB: 2 (9)
RB: 7 (30)
WR: 14 (33)
TE: 6 (14)
D/ST: 1 (2)
No TD: 2 (8)
A very low week for running backs with just seven team first TDs. Fourteen is a little bit higher than what we typically see for WR and so is six for TE, so those came at the expense of the running back position.
We did see some mild improvement in the red zone in Week 3 compared to Week 2. Teams were 66/114 in the red zone, so around 58%. Week 2 was below 55%. Week 1 was 66.7%, so I’m not surprised we dropped from there. I would assume 58% is somewhere around the median that we’ll see for this season.
As I mentioned, we had 10 teams score on their first possession in Week 1 and then six teams in Week 2. We had seven this past week. I’d expect to see 6-7 teams on average.
This is helpful info for the First Touchdown Scorer market, but also when betting first quarters and first halves. Some coaches are better with the scripted drive than others. Also, I track whether or not a team scored on its first possession in the First Touchdown Scorer spreadsheet, put together by our Executive Producer Stephanie Kamerschak, who did this article the first few seasons for us.
2026 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 3/3 (100%) |
| Jaguars | 3/3 (100%) |
| Packers | 3/3 (100%) |
| Rams | 3/3 (100%) |
| 49ers | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Bengals | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Chiefs | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Cowboys | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Jets | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Panthers | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Patriots | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Raiders | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Titans | 2/3 (66.7%) |
| Bears | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Bills | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Browns | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Buccaneers | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Cardinals | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Chargers | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Commanders | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Eagles | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Falcons | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Giants | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Lions | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Ravens | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Saints | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Seahawks | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Steelers | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Texans | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Vikings | 1/3 (33.3%) |
| Broncos | 0/3 (0%) |
| Dolphins | 0/3 (0%) |
Four teams are perfect, including three I’m not terribly surprised to see in the Colts, Jaguars, and Rams. Shane Steichen and his offensive coaches have been so good at this. Liam Coen is a very sharp offensive mind. The Rams are the Rams. The Packers are a little bit of a surprise, though Matt LaFleur is usually very good with the scripted drive. They’re just more of a surprise because of how poorly they’ve played after scoring first.
The Dolphins are hardly a surprise to be one of two teams without a first TD on the season. The Broncos were actually 2/3 at this point last season and 7/11 before their Week 12 bye, so it’s a very slow start for them.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 15/17 (88.2%) |
| Seahawks | 15/20 (75%) |
| Jaguars | 13/18 (72.2%) |
| Eagles | 12/18 (66.7%) |
| Lions | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Packers | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Rams | 12/20 (60%) |
| Bucs | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Giants | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Broncos | 11/19 (57.9%) |
| Browns | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Cowboys | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Ravens | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| 49ers | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Bears | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Bills | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Texans | 10/19 (52.6%) |
| Steelers | 9/18 (50%) |
| Bengals | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Dolphins | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Chargers | 8/18 (44.4%) |
| Chiefs | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Falcons | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Panthers | 7/18 (38.9%) |
| Cardinals | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Titans | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Vikings | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Commanders | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Raiders | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Jets | 3/17 (17.6%) |
| Saints | 3/17 (17.6%) |
Some nuggets from Week 3:
- We’ve already got two three-time first team TD scorers – Josh Allen (BUF) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA); we didn’t have any guys go 3/3 to start the season last year. Rome Odunze (CHI) and Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) made the list after Week 4
- The Bills and Seahawks are two of three teams whose three first TDs have come from the same position; the Chargers are the other, all from RBs
- Three road teams – Chiefs, Chargers, Rams – scored the first TD of the game
- The Giants have been a NO TD team in back-to-back weeks; the Jets from Week 16-18 in 2022 are the last team to go three straight weeks without scoring a TD
For the first few weeks, I will include the 2025 percentages, as the 2026 sample size just isn’t really big enough to be significant. As we get more data, I’ll drop 2025 from this matchup section.
With that, let’s get to the Week 4 action and look at some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible
NFL Week 4 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2026 & 2025
Steelers (33.3%; 50%) at Browns (33.3%; 52.9%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
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Colts (100%; 88.2%) vs. Commanders (33.3%; 29.4%) – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
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Patriots (66.7%; 42.9%) at Bills (33.3%; 52.6%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Jets (66.7%; 17.6%) at Bears (33.3%; 52.6%)
Jaguars (100%; 72.2%) at Bengals (66.7%; 47.1%)
Cardinals (33.3%; 35.3%) at Giants (33.3%; 58.8%)
Rams (100%; 60%) at Eagles (33.3%; 66.7%)
Packers (100%; 61.1%) at Buccaneers (33.3%; 58.8%)
Titans (66.7%; 35.3%) at Ravens (33.3%; 52.9%)
Cowboys (66.7%; 52.9%) at Texans (33.3%; 52.6%)
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Dolphins (0%; 47.1%) at Vikings (33.3%; 35.3%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
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Chiefs (66.7%; 41.2%) at Raiders (66.7%; 29.4%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Broncos (0%; 57.9%) at 49ers (66.7%; 52.6%)
Chargers (33.3%; 44.4%) at Seahawks (33.3%; 75%)
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Lions (33.3%; 64.7%) at Panthers (66.7%; 38.9%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
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Falcons (33.3%; 41.2%) at Saints (33.3%; 17.6%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 4 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor (+280), Tyler Warren (+1000)
Not pulling any punches here. The Colts are outstanding in this department and the Commanders are not. Even with Jayden Daniels in the lineup, this has not been the team’s forte. The Colts are 3/3 this season after going 15/17 last season and 11/17 the season prior. Taylor has 10 first team TDs over those 37 games, so the +280 isn’t exactly a bet with value, but he is the most likely scorer. The Colts have 15 red-zone rushing attempts and Taylor has 12 of them. Only Christian McCaffrey had more red-zone carries last season than Taylor.
Warren hauled in 10/19 red-zone targets last season and has caught all three balls sent his way inside the 20 this season. He has one first team TD this season and had three last season, actually coming in three straight weeks from Week 4 to Week 6.
If you want a better price than Taylor’s +280, Josh Downs is +1100 and Daniel Jones is +1800. Even with the game in London, Steichen’s success in this department brings a lot of guys into play.
Green Bay Packers: Christian Watson (+850), Skyy Moore (+2000)
Watson has two of the three first team TDs for the Packers this season and had four of them last season, including the Wild Card game against the Bears. So far, Watson leads the team with six red-zone targets and he’s caught four of those passes, including three for touchdowns. Romeo Doubs actually had 17 red-zone targets last season and Watson only had six. With Doubs gone, it does seem like Watson is Jordan Love’s most trusted option.
I wanted to look at MarShawn Lloyd, Kaleb Johnson, or Chris Brooks, but it’s anybody’s guess who gets the red-zone carries this week. Lloyd only played 15 snaps last week, but the game state did have Green Bay trailing throughout. But Lloyd had 30 offensive snaps in Week 1 (44.1%) and has had 16 (27.1%) and 15 (22.7%) the last two weeks. Brooks has actually had the largest snap share. Lloyd had the only three red-zone carries last week. Brooks had 27 snaps and didn’t register a carry. Johnson played more with 24 snaps and four totes.
But, when you look at the Packers for the season, Love has 18 pass attempts in the red zone compared to just 11 total rush attempts, one of them his. Moore has three targets and one catch inside the 20, but I wonder if maybe there’s a gadget play for him to get a rushing attempt soon. He’s nearly double the price of Matthew Golden, so I’m taking a calculated shot here.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Bhayshul Tuten (+650), Parker Washington (+1100)
Chase Brown and Ja’Marr Chase push up the numbers on Tuten and Washington this week. In the 21 games with Liam Coen at the helm, the Jaguars have scored the game’s first TD in 16 of them. That’s a pretty good rate in my mind and the Bengals have been right at 50% since the start of last season. And two of their instances last season were a kick return TD and a defensive score. Their first one this season was also a defensive score.
So, I’ll take my chances here with Jags players. I’m actually surprised that Tuten only has one more red-zone carry than Chris Rodriguez Jr., but I’m not expecting that to be a thing as we keep going. Three of the five for Rodriguez came last week in the blowout of the Patriots.
Trevor Lawrence has spread the targets around in the red zone thus far, but Washington’s three are the most. He had 10 catches on 14 red-zone targets last season and led the team with four first TDs. He already has one this season.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season.
