Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 4:
Week 3 of the NFL season continued the roller-coaster ride in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but thankfully in the right direction. We went 4-2 ATS with our best bets in last week’s column, with wins on the Steelers +3.5 in their 30-27 outright upset of the Bengals, Cardinals +8.5 in their 36-30 loss at the 49ers, Cowboys +3.5 in their 34-31 loss to the Ravens in Brazil, and the Bears +4.5 in their 27-7 outright upset of the Eagles on Monday Night Football. The losses were on the Dolphins +11 in their 24-10 loss vs. the Chiefs and the Chargers +7.5 in their 24-16 loss at the Bills (a bad beat in my book, but we move on).
I also wrote last week that I like the Raiders against the Saints, but passed on +3 and said I would bet on it or play in contests if I got +3.5. Well, unfortunately, I didn’t get +3.5 at any of my books, and it was +3 in Circa Sports Million and the Westgate SuperContest (though I did get it in some of my other ATS contests that use all half-points), so I passed. At least we’re back to .500 at 9-9 ATS through three weeks.
For those still playing along with Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio (which I’ve written the past three weeks that I’m not betting as much as it’s harder to find low vig on 2-team, 6-point teasers but still some attractive spots), our recommendations in Week 3 did go 4-1, with the Patriots being the only loser, or our preferred teasers that capture the key numbers of 3 and 7. Hopefully those continue to get more profitable, so I’ll point those out again this week, where I’m looking to play them with the caveat to not only shop for the best lines to tease but also the lowest vig.
For those following my NFL Betting Recaps on Twitter/X at ViewFromVegas, at 10-5 ATS with the Vikings-Buccaneers graded as a closing VFV Consensus pick ’em in Vegas, and I took a 23-22-2 ATS lead overall with one PK through three weeks. Home teams went 10-5 ATS with one neutral-site game (Ravens-Cowboys in Brazil) to take a 23-21-2 ATS lead with two neutral sites. Over/Unders split 8-8 with Unders still holding a slight lead at 24-23-1.
For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on each game from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. I’ll also give my patent-pending Tuley’s Pool Play Percentages for those in contests where you have to pick every game (or just as another helpful handicapping point).
Without further ado, let’s go over the full NFL Week 4 schedule.
Pittsburgh -3 at Cleveland
This week’s Thursday Night Football game gives us a surprising first-place matchup in the AFC North with both teams at 2-1 (actually, it’s a four-way tie for first as the Bengals and Ravens are also 2-1). The Browns are the biggest surprise after getting routed 34-10 by the Jaguars in the season opener, then pulling off back-to-back upsets of the Buccaneers and Panthers. The advance line for this game last week was Steelers -2.5 and actually re-opened as high as -3.5 on Sunday after they bounced back from their Week 2 loss at New England to upset the Bengals 30-27 despite the Browns also winning, though it has settled back at a field goal.
There are certainly reasons to back (or fade) both teams, but I usually love home divisional dogs, and the Browns fit the bill. The Browns have the better defense now, and the gap on offense has closed. I’m sure everyone is also hearing about Cleveland being 11-1 in TNF home games and 4-0 against Pittsburgh. I’m kicking myself for ignoring Atlanta coach Kevin Sefanski’s TNF record (built in Cleveland) last week and not passing again.
Best Bet: Cleveland +3 (Pool Play Percentages: Browns 67/33 in rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Steelers still 67/33 in SU pools).
Indianapolis -3.5 vs. Washington
We get the first early Sunday international game this week in London (9:30 a.m. ET kickoff compared to the Week 1 Australia Game being on Friday night and the Week 2 Brazil game being at 4:30 p.m. ET). The advance line was Colts -4.5 but dropped to -3.5 after both teams won in Week 3 after losing their first two games. It’s tempting to take the Commanders getting more than a field goal, but even though they upset the Seahawks 33-31 at home (killing a lot of Survivor entries), I was actually more impressed with the Colts’ 19-17 minor upset of the Texans.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
New England at Buffalo -6.5
Are the Bills being allowed to play every game at home in their new stadium? OK, so I guess this is only their third straight at home. The advance line was Bills -5.5 but was raised a point after they rallied to beat the Chargers 24-16, and the Patriots were blown out 35-6 at the Jaguars. That was an ugly loss by the Pats and, yes, I’ve seen all the jokes and memes about Drake Maye. However, I believe we’ll see a much better effort from New England in this key divisional rivalry game, especially as they’re already two games behind the Bills. I’m on the Patriots regardless in contests, but will wait to bet as I expect this line to keep climbing to at least a full TD with so many people jumping on the Bills’ bandwagon (and also fading the Pats).
Best Bet: Patriots +6.5 or better (Pool Play Percentages: Patriots 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bills still at least 67/33 in SU pools).
New York Jets at Chicago -3/-3.5
Chicago is still puffing its collective chest over Case Keenum’s performance in the Bears’ 27-7 rout of the Eagles on Monday night. The advance line was Bears -3 and reopened the same after the Jets lost 31-14 at the Lions. After the Bears’ big win, it’s up to what we call -3/-3.5 (meaning those spreads are available at different books, usually with added juice on the side you want), even though Chicago coach Ben Johnson hasn’t said if starting QB Caleb Williams will return (he didn’t practice Wednesday) or Keenum will start again or if he’ll turn to No. 2 QB Tyson Bagent. That uncertainty actually makes me like the Jets’ chances even less, so I gotta pass here, even if getting the hook.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Bears 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Arizona -2.5 at New York Giants
The Giants are a surprising 2-1 and the Cardinals are 1-2, but an argument can be made that the Cards are the better team. The market sure seems to agree, as the advance line was Giants -2.5; lowered to -1 after they won ugly, 12-7, over the lowly Titans while the Cardinals lost 36-30 at the 49ers (but covered); and now favoritism has flipped to the Cardinals -2.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. I’m not confident enough in Jameis Winston and the Giants to win again and not even considering them in teasers.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Cardinals 55/45 in all contests and pools).
Dallas at Houston -2.5/-3
The Texans are the best 0-3 team in the league and might be getting WR Nico Collins back, so I’m not looking to fade them here. However, I can see the Cowboys staying within one score as the offense should have some success against Houston’s tough defense.
Best Bet: Cowboys +8.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Cowboys 55/45 in ATS contests, but Texans still 60/40 in SU pools).
Jacksonville at Cincinnati -2.5
Both teams are 2-1, and this could be a tiebreaker game in the AFC Wild Card race if neither team wins its division. This line has been a pretty solid Bengals -2.5 since I’ve seen it posted, which certainly puts it in our “teaser zone” to move the Jaguars up over a TD to +8.5 in what should be a closely contested one-score game.
Best Bet: Jaguars +8.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Green Bay -3/-3.5 at Buccaneers
The advance line for this matchup was Packers -1.5, but after both teams lost last week, it rose to Packers -3.5 after Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield was injured and replaced by undrafted rookie QB Jalon Daniels. As bad as the Packers looked in their 35-14 home loss to the Falcons last Thursday, I’m not willing to fade them in Daniels’ first start.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Packers still 65/35 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Rams -3 at Philadelphia
This is a big early NFC nondivisional game as the preseason Super Bowl champion Rams are only 1-2 while the Eagles dropped to 2-1 after their blowout loss at the Bears on Monday night. The Eagles aren’t playing well enough (they only beat the Commanders 24-22 in the season-opener and weren’t impressive in their 24-20 win over the lowly Titans in Week 2 either) for me to take them as a home dog here and fade the Rams in a must-win spot.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Rams 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Tennessee at Baltimore -11.5
Astute readers probably noticed that I’ve referred to the “lowly Titans” twice already in this column, but I was mostly mimicking public opinion out there. Yes, they are still one of five winless teams in the league, but after losing to the Jets as 1-point home favorites in Week 1, they covered as 7-point dogs in a 24-20 loss to the Eagles in Week 2 and then lost just 12-7 to the Giants this past Sunday. Cam Ward needs to get the offense back on track to keep within two scores of the Ravens, but if they can play like they did against the Eagles, that’s exactly what I expect them to do with a 7- or 10-point loss and cover.
Best Bet: Titans +11.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Titans 67/33 in ATS contests, but Ravens still at least 90/10 in SU pools).
Miami at Minnesota -10.5
We have another double-digit underdog here, but this time I’m going to invoke the “pass” part of “dog or pass. The Vikings offense hasn’t been clicking since beating the Packers 39-22 in the opener, so it’s kinda tempting to fade them, but the Dolphins are still looking like they could have the worst record in the league and now are without RB De’Von Achane (torn ACL), one of their few offensive stars.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Dolphins 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Vikings still at least 90/10 in SU pools).
Denver at San Francisco -2.5
Setting aside that Vikings-Dolphins game, Week 4 has a pretty strong Sunday afternoon slate. This is an interconference game, but both teams still could use the win: the 49ers are 3-0 but only a game up in the strong NFC West, while the Broncos are 2-1 but a game behind the Chiefs and Raiders (say what?) in the AFC West. The 49ers obviously haven’t done much wrong in their undefeated start (except not covering vs. the Cardinals), but the Broncos are coming in with a little more momentum after dropping the season opener to the Chiefs but beating the Jaguars and Rams the last two weeks. I was hoping for at least a field goal or even +3.5, but let’s use the Broncos +8.5 or better in our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
Best Bet: Broncos +8.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Broncos 55/45 in ATS contests, but 49ers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Kansas City -4.5 at Las Vegas
No one thought this would be a battle between undefeated 3-0 teams, but here we are after the Raiders beat the Dolphins as favorites and then pulled back-to-back upsets of the Chargers and Saints. The advance line was Chiefs -5.5 and reopened at -4.5 after the Raiders’ upset and the Chiefs’ 24-10 win over the Dolphins. I know this doesn’t always matter, but the Raiders also beat the Dolphins by 14 points, 27-13, and they often play their divisional rival tough. I’m also counting on the Chiefs usually letting teams stick around (and it was only a 4-point game entering the fourth quarter on Sunday).
Best Bet: Raiders +4.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Raiders 67/33 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still 67/33 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle -7
Get ready to hold our noses on this ugly play, but here we go. The Chargers are obviously off to an ugly 0-3 start and still face a tough upcoming schedule, so their bandwagon is almost empty. However, I can’t help but say they outplayed the Bills for three quarters before giving up the lead and then the cover, so I still believe they can hang with the Seahawks, too. Longtime readers of mine will also recognize this as an “anti-swagger play” against the Super Bowl champion Seahawks, who had a 12-game winning streak, including the playoffs dating back to last year, snapped. Plug away!
Best Bet: Chargers +7 (Pool Play Percentages: Chargers 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +7.5, but Seahawks still 75/25 in SU pools).
Detroit -3.5 at Carolina
The advance line was Lions -2.5, but after the Lions beat the Jets 31-24 and the Panthers lost 21-18 to the Browns, it crossed the key number to Lions -3.5. It’s tempting to take the Panthers as a home dog of more than a FG on Sunday Night Football, but I can’t pull the trigger. That’s partly because of missing out on the -2.5, but also because I’m afraid of fading the Lions when they could explode at any time. And, heck, they’ve actually scored exactly 31 points in each of their first three games (including the loss in Buffalo when the Bills opened their new stadium), so the offense is already clicking, and I’m just not confident in the Panthers to keep up (they only topped 30 points in Week 2 in Atlanta).
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Atlanta at New Orleans -2.5/-3
Speaking of the weak NFC South, we get a battle for first place between the Falcons (1-2) and Saints (1-2) on Monday Night Football. Note: The Panthers are also 1-2 entering Week 4. The advance line for this was Saints -3.5 before the Falcons upset the Packers last Thursday night, and then the Saints lost to the Raiders on Sunday. The line reopened at a flat 3 but has moved to Saints -2.5/-3. With the way Michael Penix Jr. returned from injury, I think the early movement has been on the right side. I’d consider the Falcons at +3, but more likely to just anchor my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio at Falcons +8.5 and hopefully have some live tickets from Sunday’s action.
Best Bet: Falcons +8.5 or better in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Falcons 55/45 in ATS contests, but Saints 67/33 in SU pools).
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