NFL first touchdown scorer player prop picks
That was a close one! If it weren’t for Jalen Hurts’ feet, I might have had my first week without a winner all season. But, Hurts managed to scamper in from three yards out on Monday Night Football to help a girl out big time and keep my first touchdown winning streak alive.
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All season I’ve been using my tracker to help me cash FTD (first touchdown) tickets. Each week I track every team’s first touchdown and then use that data to narrow the field when selecting players. If one team is significantly more successful at scoring first than the other, I stick to players from the good team. The system worked decently in Week 15, with eight of 14 games featuring mismatches following the pattern.
Before I look at Week 16, here are my thoughts on last week:
Week 16 Hub | NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Best Bets | 1st TD Tracker
Friends
Panthers opponents: Poor Panthers fans. This team’s offense is just so pitiful overall, but especially in the FTD market. They have only scored first once in their last eight games, and are riding a five-game fail streak. The only bad news is that they only have three more games to their season and we can’t keep fading them into the playoffs.
The Dolphins studs: After starting the season with an extremely poor FTD output, the Dolphins have arrived. They’ve now scored first in five straight games. And the thing I like about them the most is that they really don’t look too far outside of their stars. Tyreek Hill has six TFTDs, and Raheem Mostert has four. Two players accounting for ten of 14 touchdowns is a HEALTHY trend. I’m a little scared of their final three regular season matchups (vs Cowboys, at Ravens, vs Bills), but I’ll probably still bet both guys if they’re in the game.
Foes
Lamar Jackson’s arm: Hey Lamar, stop throwing the ball! The Ravens started the season scoring their TFTD (team-first touchdown) using their feet in eight of 11 games. Betting on Jackson and whichever running back was healthy that week seemed to be a lock for forever. But in three straight weeks now, Jackson has thrown touchdowns. Thankfully all three of them have been the first of the game so I can still keep betting on the NFL’s best FTD team, but I might have to throw a little more on the pass catchers going forward. Pun intended.
The 49ers defense: I don’t mention defenses much in these articles but, San Fran let me down big time this weekend when they allowed James Conner of Cardinals to score on Arizona’s opening drive. This snapped a five-game FTD streak for the Niners. And just to rub it in my face, the two bets I had were on Chrisitan McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel who combined for FIVE touchdowns in the game. Super annoying!
The schedule makers: And speaking of the Ravens and 49ers, they play each other this week which is absolutely brutal for us FTD bettors. Don’t the schedule makers know that we need mismatches in order to make solid bets?! These are the top two FTD teams in the league here. The only good news is, we might be able to get a juicier price than usual on Christian McCaffrey due to Baltimore’s elite level of success in this market.
WHO?! Spotlight: We had a no-doubter this week. As soon as I saw Saints WR Keith Kirkwood score against the Giants, I knew I’d be looking up his stats for this part of my article. This player is so unheard of, if you type “Kirkwood” into the search bar on ESPN.com, he doesn’t even show up in the suggestions. And it’s not that there are tons of other Kirkwoods out there, only one of them gets a headshot photo! We even see Pat Kirkwood, a NASCAR driver who last raced in 1957. Yeesh! Keith Kirkwood had one catch in the game, upping his season total to a whopping four. I was surprised when I saw his odds were just +2800 at DraftKings, I thought it would be higher for sure. If you saw Kirkwood coming, please teach me your ways!
Here are all of Week 16’s games with their 2023 FTD success rates:
Saints (42.9%) at Rams (42.9%) – Thursday, 8:15 PM ET
Bengals (50.0%) at Steelers (21.4%) – Saturday, 4:30 PM ET
Bills (57.1%) at Chargers (50.0%) – Saturday, 8 PM ET
Seahawks (50.0%) at Titans (35.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Colts (42.9%) at Falcons (57.1%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Browns (50.0%) at Texans (42.9%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Packers (57.1%) at Panthers (28.6%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Commanders (35.7%) at Jets (14.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Lions (57.1%) at Vikings (71.4%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Jaguars (64.3%) at Buccaneers (28.6%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Cardinals (42.9%) at Bears (50.0%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Cowboys (57.1%) at Dolphins (57.1%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Patriots (28.6%) at Broncos (57.1%) – Sunday, 8:15 PM ET
Raiders (71.4%) at Chiefs (64.3%) – Christmas, 1 PM ET
Giants (21.4%) at Eagles (57.1%) – Christmas, 4:30 PM ET
Ravens (92.9%) at 49ers (78.6%) – Christmas, 8:15 PM ET
And here are the matchups I like best based on mismatches:
Bengals (50.0%) at Steelers (21.4%) – Saturday, 4:30 PM ET
This is more about the Steelers futility than the Bengals’ better success rate. Pittsburgh’s only scored first once in their last five games. Their offense has gotten even worse since firing OC Matt Canada and seem to have major question marks at QB. A beautiful fade spot. With Ja’Marr Chase missing time with a chest injury, I’ll be on their other main scorers, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon. Higgins has four TDs on the year and Mixon has nine. Both are far ahead of any other Cincy player.
Bills (57.1%) at Chargers (50.0%) – Saturday, 8 PM ET
Don’t be fooled by the 50% next to the Chargers name there. They started the season hot, but have failed to score first in six straight games now. Their offense is in shambles. I’ll turn to Buffalo here and go with James Cook who had an absolute breakout game last week, complete with two touchdowns. He has three TFTDs, tied for most on the team with Josh Allen, who will be my other pick here. The Bills seem to have pivoted to a run-first game plan which gives us a good shot with these two.
Packers (57.1%) at Panthers (28.6%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
I absolutely love this matchup. One of the NFL’s hottest FTD teams facing one of the coldest. Green Bay has scored the game’s first touchdown in five straight games now, and I’ve been along for the ride. They’ve been consistent in the types of players they target. A wide receiver or tight end has scored their first TD in six straight games, and eight of their last nine. Air Jordan (Love)! I’ll go with Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft. Reed, who has quietly been one of the best rookie WRs this season, has eight touchdowns this year, four of which are FTDs. Kraft will be a longer shot, but he scored first for them last week and has seen increased targets over the past few weeks.
Giants (21.4%) at Eagles (57.1%) – Christmas, 4:30 PM ET
The “Tommy Cutlets is the future” era might have been fun for Giants fans, but I am so glad it seems to be over. Before DeVito took over, the Big Blue was the worst FTD team out there, scoring first in just one game. Once he began starting, they scored first in two of their six games. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but for a team that had been so reliably bad, this was incredibly frustrating. We’re back on track though. The G-Men failed to score a touchdown at all last week and are back on the auto-fade list. On the Eagles side, I’ll be going with guys named Jalen. A Jalen has scored first for them in four straight games. Three times by Hurts and once by Carter. Give me Hurts and the Eagles D/ST all day.
Follow me on X (@billzinmepocket) for my official bets each Sunday morning and let me know who you like!
