NFL Hall of Fame Game 2025: What the Betting History Tells Us

NFL Hall of Fame Game 2025: What the Betting History Tells Us:

No one ever compares the Pro Football Hall of Fame game to the Super Bowl or even the regular-season kickoff, but the arrival of the game each year always brings some crazy betting enthusiasm. It represents the official return of NFL football, regardless of how meaningless the results are or how unprofessional the effort may seem during the exhibition. This year’s matchup brings some extra intrigue, as it pits a pair of returning playoff teams, each with heightened expectations for the season. 

Let’s be truthful: as much as bettors don’t openly brag about it, most of us are excited about the game on Thursday that kicks off the NFL preseason, and most of us will, in fact, bet it. With that spirit in mind, why not make your best effort to win that wager, aided by some historical game info that might tip the scales as to who wins and covers, the Lions or the Chargers, or which way the total winds up. 

Below, you’ll find a chart that details the results of the Hall of Fame Games played since the year 2000, complete with betting lines and totals. Note that the 2020 game was canceled because of COVID-19, the 2016 game wasn’t played because of poor field conditions, and the 2011 matchup was also skipped because of a lockout. Also, keep in mind that these games are played in Canton, Ohio, on a neutral field, thus the reason for the small favorite lines on average. Plus, in most cases, the teams’ representative starters typically don’t play at all, or play no more than a single offensive series, resulting in lower totals. If you’re new to betting on this game, keep those thoughts at the forefront.

Oddsmakers have Detroit as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 33.5 as of Tuesday morning. Those are very typical numbers for this game. However, both numbers have moved since opening, as the Lions were 1-point opening-line favorites with a total of 33. 

Interestingly, neither the Lions nor the Chargers have played in the Hall of Fame Game over the last 25 years, so bettors will find no advantage there.

Below the chart, you’ll find some of my observations regarding the overall results and the betting implications. If you’re interested in my annual NFL Preseason Betting Strategies piece, don’t fret, that will be out next week before preseason Week 1 kicks off in full next Thursday. 

Betting Trends/Observations

— Last year’s upset win by the Bears over the Texans extended a strong run by underdogs in this game. Dating to 2013, they are on a 6-4 SU and 7-2-1 ATS surge. Keep in mind that before that, favorites had been on a 6-1-2 ATS run, so the tide has clearly shifted, as I believe a lot of bettors make the inaccurate assumption now that those setting the odds are in the know about which team will come to play.

— The team that has led the Hall of Fame Game at halftime has gone just 2-4-1 over the last six games. With starters playing only a series or two, if any, depth is as important as any other factor, particularly at quarterback.

— This is a game that is usually assumed to be an Under wager, despite the extremely low total. That said, Overs have been the winning totals wager in three straight years, following up a nine-game stretch in which Under was 7-2.

— In the seven Hall of Fame Games since 2015 in which the line has moved off the opening number, it has gone toward the favorite seven times. That team is just 2-4-1 ATS in that span. Furthermore, this seems to be becoming a game in which the books take from the bettors, as those following line moves would be just 3-7-1 ATS in the last 10 opportunities. Recall that DraftKings had Detroit as a 1-point favorite out of the gate, and the line has since moved to 1.5. Thus, it would appear the betting public is backing the Lions here.

— Bettors have not been sharp lately when moving totals in HOF games either, going 2-6 in the last eight times the total moved before kickoff. The 2025 total has moved toward the Over (33 to 33.5), but on both the line and total, I won’t log these until the final numbers are decided at kickoff. 

Steve’s Thoughts on the 2025 Game

The Lions and Chargers are both riding playoff expectations into the 2025 season. The Lions come off an excruciating divisional playoff loss at home to the Commanders, a game they hosted as the NFC’s top seed. Since then, they have seen both their offensive and defensive coordinators depart. That is among my major concerns for them this season, as so much of their attitude, swagger and creativity came from offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. 

If you read any of my transitional systems piece this summer, you’d also know that the Lions have some other natural concerns to deal with, primarily that they benefited greatly from turnovers last season and won several close games. Coach Dan Campbell’s team has also improved its won-lost record in each of the last three seasons, and there is a concern about their championship window closing. 

If you’re wondering what we should expect from the Lions’ key players, note that quarterback Jared Goff has not played in any preseason game since 2022, so don’t expect him to play in this one. The offense has enjoyed plenty of on-field time together in recent years, so there’s no need to push it. For what it’s worth, the Lions’ preseason QB depth chart lists Goff-Hendon Hooker-Kyle Allen. Hooker played in three games a year ago, throwing just three passes. Allen threw one pass in 2024 for Pittsburgh but has been in the league since 2018. 

The Chargers had a great first season under coach Jim Harbaugh, winning 11 games before an ugly wild-card loss at Houston. They changed their makeup under Harbaugh, leaning more on the run and defense. The results were more wins and being able to keep quarterback Justin Herbert healthy. In his first four seasons, Herbert had attempted 39.1 passes per game. Last season, that number dropped significantly to 29.6. His yards per attempt, however, 7.7, were a career high. He will be surrounded by a new set of weapons this season as L.A. has reloaded at running back and wide receiver. On the defensive side, a noteworthy departure for 2025 was pass rusher Joey Bosa, a longtime Chargers stalwart who signed with the Bills. 

The QB depth chart for Harbaugh is deeper and more experienced than that of the Lions. Herbert, who has never played in a preseason game, is naturally not expected to play, but he is followed by Taylor Heinicke (29 career starts), Trey Lance (5) and rookie DJ Uiagalelei. The Chargers’ QB options offer nice run-pass balance, too, and that could give them the edge. 

If you’re interested in how each of these franchises looks at the preseason, consider that Detroit is on a 4-2 SU and ATS run over the last two seasons of exhibition games but was 2-13 SU and 3-11-1 ATS before that. The Lions have been favored only six times in their last 18 exhibition games, going 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS. The Chargers meanwhile, haven’t been great either, 3-3 SU and ATS the last two seasons, and 3-7 SU and ATS in the last 10.

When handicapping this game each year, I like to look at two specific factors: line placement by oddsmakers and quarterback rotation depth. In terms of the latter, it is a decent edge to the Chargers. In terms of the line placement, oddsmakers are trying to tell us that Detroit is either the better team or the more motivated team. In either case, I’m not buying it and I truly believe my concerns about running new offensive and defensive systems are valid, especially with backups in an exhibition game. My preseason power ratings show Detroit with a 17.5, the Chargers with a 17. I can’t stretch the line to Detroit -1.5. Let’s give a lean to the Chargers in this one as the dog with a probable Under. As the Chargers lean on the run game/defense, it seems unlikely that a shootout will develop with these QBs. 

By the way, you can find my full ratings projections for Thursday and the rest of the NFL exhibition season on the VSiN Makinen Weekly Ratings page.