NFL Handicapping Advice for ‘Resting Starters’ Games:

It’s a final-week tradition in the NFL, unfortunately, with some teams opting to rest key players because they have already locked up a playoff spot. A lot of these games will be labeled as “meaningless.” Of course, we bettors know that no game with a money line, point spread or total should ever be referred to that way. As it stands, this season presents more of those games than any in recent memory. Not surprisingly, when this week’s lines were released, I heard from several VSiN readers within 24 hours, asking me to update the “resting starters” games stats and systems I have been logging for at least a decade. 

For good reason, most NFL fans and analysts choose to focus on the playoff-impactful games in the final week, but if you’re like me, these so-called “meaningless” games can prove to be rewarding contests to handicap.

 

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Unfortunately, recent college bowl seasons have acclimated us to the process of trying to handicap games in which teams don’t have their full allotment of players. The degree of tanking varies, too. Some teams sit their studs completely while others try to keep their players in sync by having them play a quarter or two. Making matters worse, more teams eliminated from the playoffs are starting to rest key players to preserve their health. Despite this uncertainty and the difficulty that comes with handicapping teams that aren’t at full strength, many bettors have trouble staying away from these games. They figure that with lines so far out of whack, oddsmakers must be making a mistake. Hats off to those bettors as I will illustrate that these games have proved to hold a ton of value.

In recent years, there have been as many as six of these types of games in the final regular-season week. Last year there were three. The rule of thumb is that if the line looks abnormal or moves significantly throughout the week, you can pretty much book that the coach of the playoff-bound team has indicated some sort of starter resting strategy. The trickiest spot here is when a team’s playoff prospects are affected by an early game result and they play late. For as much as the NFL tries to avoid these landmines through flex scheduling, sometimes nothing can be done. These lines can change dramatically by the minute as playoff scenarios play out. Out of the three games that qualified as “resting starters” games last year, two saw a line move of 3.5 points or more from release to close. 

I used to try to stay away from these games entirely until I saw some of the trends that have developed. In most cases, bettors would rather play on games in which the teams’ motivational levels are equal, or at least more measurable. However, if you have access to an individual players database from which you can easily interchange starters and backups and measure the line variation by doing so, perhaps you have the advantage in these games. 

I have taken a snapshot of the last 16 years of regular-season finale games and pulled out those in which one of the teams either rested its starting quarterback entirely or pulled him for the backup. These are games in which the lines differed wildly from their projected power rating line, or alternatively, moved significantly up till kickoff. In almost every case, the teams resting the key starters were playoff qualifiers that had nothing to gain by winning the game. As you look at the chart, perhaps you can recall being on the right or wrong side in these games.

One important point: These are professional athletes playing these games, and all of them are playing for their livelihood. Some can achieve contract incentives in the season finale as well. Therefore, don’t assume that just because a team decides to rest its studs, the rest of the team isn’t dead set on winning the game. The truth is that in most of these games, there is a significant difference in the number of wins for each team, and the playoff-qualifying team is naturally deeper. In fact, their motivation may also actually be greater because the opponent is merely playing out the string and looking forward to a warm, tropical vacation the week after the game.

In the chart, you will see that I have logged the opponents, highlighted the “resting starters” team in gray and given you the line, score and which team won, lost and covered. I’ve also detailed the totals as well. Please note that this list is not “official,” but for our purposes, it gives us a great idea of the type of results you can expect when handicapping these dreaded “meaningless” games. 

Interpreting the Results

In no way is handicapping these games as easy as just backing the team playing at “full strength”. In fact, if anything, we would recommend playing the underdog or road team if you were to just follow a set path. In fact, since 2011, underdogs in the games in which teams are resting starters are on a 23-11 ATS run (67.6%). For totals, blind plays on Over would be the preferred option. Here are some other trends to consider from these games. 

* Over the last 13 years, the team resting its starters has a nice ATS edge of 20-14-2 ATS (58.8%) mark in Week 17/18 games. However, they are just 13-23 outright.

* Teams resting their starters against opponents that had at least six fewer wins are just 7-11 SU and 6-9-3 ATS (40%) over the last 16 seasons.

* Lately, road teams have performed exceptionally in resting starters games, going 16-17 SU and 23-8-1 ATS (74.2%) over the last 12 seasons, pulling seven outright upsets.

* History has shown that following the biggest line moves has paid off for bettors on “resting starters” games. Since 2017, 14 Week 17/18 games have seen line moves of five points or more from open to close. Bettors are 7-5-2 ATS (58.3%) in such games. Consider that as you track the Week 18 lines this year.

* Games of this nature tend to be higher scoring than expected, as Over the total is 28-13 (68.3%) since 2010, with the games producing 45.4 PPG on totals averaging 40.9.

* Bettors tend to bet the totals for these games down as they open on an average of 42.4 and close over a point lower, typically at 40.9.

Summary

In general, there are some nice trends and other strategies to use for dealing with the “resting starters” games. My best advice is not to assume that resting starters equals tanking the game. You’ll also want to avoid automatically downgrading the offenses because backup quarterbacks are in place. Remember, there are also a lot of second-string defenders in as well. Bettors have had a tendency to do this in recent years, and it has cost them as Under bets have lost consistently in these games.

If you’re wondering which teams have already declared their strategies for this weekend, this is what we know as of Tuesday, Dec. 31.

1. BUFFALO has wrapped up the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs and is listed as a three-point favorite on the road against a New England team it beat by just three at home two weeks ago. This would equate to about a nine-point deduction off the Bills’ typical power rating edge over the Patriots, meaning we could see some Bills starters for a portion of the game. One of the interesting storylines for this game revolves around Bills QB Josh Allen, who is not only a top contender for league MVP honors but has made 114 consecutive starts. Coach Sean McDermott said Allen “very, very short amount of time” against New England.

2. KANSAS CITY clinched another division title and the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs on Christmas Day and has already signaled its intention to rest QB Patrick Mahomes and other starters against the Broncos in the season finale at Denver. According to the log, this will be the fifth time since 2013 that the Chiefs are in a starter-resting situation in the final week. They are 3-0 ATS in the prior three such road games. Backup QB Carson Wentz gets the start. The Broncos likely need a win to secure a playoff spot, which is affecting the current line (Denver -10).

3. The LOS ANGELES RAMS have clinched the NFC West title by a deep tiebreaker on common opponents and by all appearances, will be resting key players against the Seahawks on Sunday. The current line of Seattle -4 would represent about a 7.5-point deduction from the Rams’ usual power rating number.

4. There hasn’t been a definitive strategy announced yet on whether or not PHILADELPHIA will be resting its starters with the NFC’s No. 2 seed locked up. The line (Philly -3) is adjusted 16 points, so we assume the Eagles will be. However, there is an intriguing storyline brewing regarding running back Saquon Barkley, who is only 101 yards behind Eric Dickerson for the NFL’s single-season rushing record. The health of QB Jalen Hurts is also a consideration after he missed last week’s game with a concussion. Does Hurts need to see some action before being thrust back into a wild-card playoff game next weekend?

5. HOUSTON is locked into the No. 4 AFC seed as South Division champion and cannot improve its position on Sunday. The line for Sunday at Tennessee seems to have been deducted by about four points, which would seem to indicate at least a partial resting of key players by the Texans. They could use a tune-up, however, as they have not played well of late and need some positive momentum heading into their playoff game next week.

6. We won’t know about the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS’ plans until after the Bengals-Steelers game on Saturday night. If the Steelers lose, the Chargers will have the chance to move into the fifth seed in the AFC, meaning they’d play struggling Houston instead of Baltimore. That’s an obvious choice. However, if Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, coach Jim Harbaugh’s team would be locked into the No. 6 seed and he might take the opportunity to rest key players, including QB Justin Herbert.

Stay tuned to the news wires all week long for the latest on teams further revealing their plans. Good luck with this year’s Week 18 games on Saturday and Sunday.

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