NFL Kickoff Rules and Scoring Increase Bettors Should Know About

NFL Kickoff Rules

One of the major questions going into the 2024 NFL season surrounded field position. In hopes of reducing injury and creating more returns, the league adopted new kickoff rules prior to the season. As a cliff notes version of what changed, here are the most noteworthy adjustments:

• No one except the kicker and returner can move until the ball is fielded
• The kicking team lined up on the receiving team’s 40-yard line, while the kicker still boots it from his own 35-yard-line
• The receiving team lined up between their own 30 and 35-yard line
• Any kick that landed in front of the 20-yard-line is considered “out of bounds” (ball placed at the 40)
• Touchbacks were placed at the 30-yard-line, a five-yard difference from a 2016 rule change

The rule changes largely worked. Concussions were down significantly and the touchback percentage (TB%) went from 73% to 64.3%. The extra five yards mattered a lot to special teams coaches and the closer proximity of the players on the kicking team meant that placekickers found the risk of a return more palatable, especially relative to the “penalty” for a touchback.

Yards per return went up from 23.0 to 27.6. Average starting field position went from the 28.8-yard-line to the 30.1-yard-line. Given that the league-wide TO% dropped from 11.6% to 10.7%, kickoffs had a lot to do with the change.

Teams scored on 38% of their possessions compared to 35.5% in 2023 and 36.4% in 2022. Points per drive went from 1.88 to 2.07. There were 85 more touchdowns scored in 2024 compared to 2023 and 26 more made field goals on 55 more field goal attempts.

For the 2025 season, the “punishment” for a touchback will be placement of the ball at the 35-yard-line, so we could see even better field position numbers this year.

While the kickoff rules absolutely played a part in the increased scoring, those were not the sole reasons why. The league-wide third-down conversion rate went from 38.9% to 39.8%. More importantly, teams went from 7,194 third-down attempts in 2023 to 6,874 third-down attempts in 2024. That right there is a sign of how much more effective teams were on first and second down and the priority placed on success rate to stay ahead of the chains.

Fourth-down attempts were actually down last season, but the success rate was up dramatically. Teams converted at 51.8% in 2023 and 56.6% in 2024.

Red zone success also took a leap, going from 54.3% to 56.9%. With the likelihood of more trips inside the opponents’ 20-yard-line now with field position probably improving across the board again this season, the fact that teams are having more success on third down, fourth down, and in the red zone should increase scoring yet again.

There were 622 more points scored during the 2024 season than the 2023 season. It will be interesting to see how much of a leap we’ll see this season and if some of those conversion percentages keep trending up, especially because red zone efficiency started very slowly in 2024, as teams were below 47% through the first two weeks.

The average Over/Under was 43.1 in 2023 and 44.6 in 2024, so an adjustment was made over the course of the season to put totals on par with what we saw back in 2022. So, you could argue that 2023 was the outlier and the changes simply brought us closer to what should be the baseline. So, we’ll see what the 2025 season holds and how sportsbooks and bettors adjust to the changes.