NFL Late Season Betting Systems:

In my experience of handicapping NFL football over the last 30 years or so, I’ve come to the realization that strategies for betting games in the latter part of the season can be a lot different from early on. The later you get into a season, the more a team is defined by its strengths and weaknesses, its stats, and its tendencies. Therefore, there are naturally different betting systems to watch for when you get deeper into a season. For the purposes of uncovering some of those top angles, I dug through my database since 2010 and analyzed all of the data samples for the regular season games in the months of December and January. I’ve found some interesting stuff, and I’m confident by applying these NFL late season betting systems over the last five weeks of the regular season, you’ll at least give yourself a fighting chance at success.

Note – we will be adding these 10 systems to the VSiN NFL Analytics Reports for the rest of the season, so don’t worry if you forget any of the concepts.

 

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NFL Late Season Betting System #1

These aren’t exactly “systems,” but these are the best line scenario records I was able to uncover from recent December/January regular season games:

·  Double-digit home favorites are 7-4 SU, but 1-10 ATS (9.1%) in the last 11 tries
Week 14 system matches: (FADE ALL ATS) – PHILADELPHIA (-12.5) vs. Carolina

·  Double-digit home favorites are on 39-11 SU but 19-30-1 ATS (38.8%) skid versus same conference opponents
Week 14 system matches: (FADE ALL ATS) – PHILADELPHIA (-12.5) vs. Carolina

· Home underdogs of more than 7-points are just 11-50 SU & 26-34-1 ATS (43.3%) since 2015
Week 14 system matches: (FADE ALL ATS) – NONE

·  Road favorites 3-points or more are 134-115 ATS (53.8%) since ‘14
Week 14 system matches: (FOLLOW ALL ATS) NEW ORLEANS (-5.5) at NY Giants, BUFFALO (-4.5) at LA Rams, CINCINNATI (-5.5) at Dallas

Steve’s thoughts: Laying big numbers in the NFL is rarely easy, and particular situations make it even tougher. In terms of home underdogs of more than a touchdown, these lines are usually reserved for the worst and most overmatched teams in the league. Good luck playing those ever. At the same time, the bigger road favorites are the best teams in the league, or they are playing well at the time. There is a foundation to each of these line range angles.

NFL Late Season Betting System #2

Since 2015, NFL teams with winning percentages of 83% or higher are just 37-34 SU and 22-49 ATS (31%) in December/January regular season games, including 8-25 ATS vs. divisional opponents.

Week 14 system matches: (FADE ALL ATS) – DETROIT (-3) vs. Green Bay, MINNESOTA (-5.5) vs. Atlanta, PHILADELPHIA (-12.5) vs. Carolina, Buffalo (-4.5) at LA Rams, KANSAS CITY (-4) vs. LA Chargers

Steve’s thoughts: The deeper you get into a season, the bigger the target is on the backs of the successful teams. The pressure applied by oddsmakers to keep winning and covering games can also be overwhelming. Plus. in many cases, you’ll find these elite teams prepping for the regular season by resting players or trying new concepts.  

NFL Late Season Betting System #3

In NFL December/January regular season games since 2012, home teams with at least four more wins than their opponent are 137-32 SU and 94-73 ATS (56.3%), including 112-17 SU and 74-54 ATS when favored by 6-points or more.

Week 14 system matches: MINNESOTA (-5.5) vs. Atlanta, TAMPA BAY (-6.5) vs. Las Vegas, PHILADELPHIA (-12.5) vs. Carolina.

Steve’s thoughts: This system would seem to clash a little with #2 above, but much of it comes down to playing at home or on the road and, of course, the price with that better team. In this particular case, the road team is either really bad or the home team has proven to be very good. In late-season games, it doesn’t make sense to go against the obvious.

NFL Late Season Betting System #4

In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, road teams scoring fewer than 19 PPG and playing as dogs of +13 points or fewer are just 32-114 SU and 54-89 ATS (37.8%).

Week 14 system matches (FADE ALL ATS): LAS VEGAS (+6.5) at Tampa Bay, CLEVELAND (+6.5) at Pittsburgh, CAROLINA (+12.5) at Philadelphia, NY JETS (+5.5) at Miami

Steve’s thoughts: Bad offenses on the road in the late season against a better team…I’m not sure much more needs to be said. Fundamentally sound strategy to fade these teams regularly.

NFL Late Season Betting System #5

In NFL December/January regular season games since 2012, road underdogs allowing 24.0 PPG or more are just 34-148 SU and 79-99 ATS (44.4%).

Week 14 system matches (FADE ALL ATS): ATLANTA (+5.5) at Minnesota, JACKSONVILLE (+3.5) at Tennessee, LAS VEGAS (+6.5) at Tampa Bay, CLEVELAND (+6.5) at Pittsburgh, CAROLINA (+12.5) at Philadelphia

Steve’s thoughts: This is very similar to #4 in that it focuses on a weakness of a poor road team. This time, it’s defense. This is another fundamental NFL betting concept indicating to stay away from bad defensive teams on the road in late-season games. Sometimes, bettors need reminders.

NFL Late Season Betting System #6

Since 2010, NFL teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 61-33 SU and 58-35 ATS (62.4%) in the follow-up game.

Week 14 system matches (FOLLOW ALL ATS): NONE – All five road favorites in Week 13 won their games by 7 points or fewer

Steve’s thoughts: This is a situation where one of the better teams in the league gets tripped up but is usually able to regroup quickly. Having lost the game on the road, you have to figure that the majority of these games are back at home as well, although statistically it hasn’t mattered. Don’t expect these strong teams to stay down for long.

NFL Late Season Betting System #7

In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on losing streaks of at least three games outright and playing as underdogs or favorites of less than 3 points are just 41-88 SU and 53-77 ATS (40.8%).

Week 14 system matches (FADE ALL ATS): ATLANTA (+5.5) at Minnesota, JACKSONVILLE (+3.5) at Tennessee, LAS VEGAS (+6.5) at Tampa Bay, NY JETS (+5.5) at Miami, NY GIANTS (+5) vs. New Orleans, CHICAGO (+4) at San Francisco

Steve’s thoughts: These are teams that are reeling and oddsmakers are showing no belief in them, essentially telling you that they aren’t going to put up an unexpectedly good performance. Again, it makes sense foundationally, but seeing the records of the struggles never hurts as a reminder.

NFL Late Season Betting System #8

In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on losing streaks of at least three games outright but boasting good defensive stats (allowing <21.5 PPG) are 24-30 SU but 36-18 ATS (66.7%).

Week 14 system matches (FOLLOW ALL ATS): NONE – NY JETS are closest to qualifying this week, allowing 22.3 PPG

Steve’s thoughts: This puts a little qualifier on the team sliding on a losing skid. Obviously, teams that boast certain strengths in key areas are much more inclined to be competitive in the face of adversity. These defenses can keep them in games, although they are still losing more often than not.

NFL Late Season Betting System #9

In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on winning streaks of at least three games but not good offensively (scoring <22 PPG) have been terrible wagers, going 21-32 SU and 16-37 ATS (30.2%).

Week 14 system matches (FOLLOW ALL ATS): NONE – SEATTLE is closest to qualifying this week, allowing 22.7 PPG

Steve’s thoughts: When teams aren’t very capable offensively, it is somewhat surprising to see them string wins together in the NFL, particularly late in the season. Don’t count on these streaks continuing.

NFL Late Season Betting System #10

Since 2014, NFL teams coming off divisional losses are now playing on the road have gone 59-64 SU but 72-47 ATS (60.5%) in the follow-up game.

Week 14 system matches (FOLLOW ALL ATS): JACKSONVILLE (+3.5) at Tennessee, LAS VEGAS (+6.5) at Tampa Bay, CHICAGO (+4) at San Francisco, CINCINNATI (-5,5) at Dallas

Steve’s thoughts: As strange as it sounds, losing to a divisional foe can be a galvanizing event for teams. Coming off that and playing on the road requires more focus than your average NFL situation. These teams prove to be very competitive the next time out.

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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