NFL Odds Week 7
We’ll see 28 of the league’s 32 teams in action in Week 7, as the Bills, Chargers, Commanders, and Jaguars are the fabulous four on their bye weeks. On the surface, we don’t have a lot of strong games, though Chiefs vs. Seahawks on Sunday Night Football is an attention-grabber. The Steelers and Saints are still headed to Paris, despite some public unrest that the NFL had to navigate around in the media.
We are light on division games, but the ones we have are pretty good, including Packers vs. Lions, the rested Bengals vs. the Ravens, and Monday Night Football of Cowboys vs. Eagles. That’s a good reminder that our Sports Equinox special offer – one of the best of the year – gives you an all-access pass to everything we do for $120 from now through May 1. Monday is the Sports Equinox, with Game 3 of the World Series, MNF, and NBA and NHL regular-season games.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 7 NFL Odds Report:
Patriots at Bears (-3, 50)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
Caleb Williams looked pretty good in his return for the Bears, as he was 30-of-36 for 305 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Falcons. The Patriots, meanwhile, did what they had to do to beat the Jets in a game where they led 17-3 at halftime and let New York back into it. Maybe that was with an eye towards this short-week affair. When the game got tight the Patriots put together a 12-play, 68-yard TD drive to get back ahead by 10 and it really does seem like Mike Vrabel has fixed whatever the early-season issues were. The lookahead number here was Chicago -1.5 with some uncertainty about Williams and the QB situation, but he’s good to go and now we have 2.5s with extra juice and 3s out there.
Steelers (-2, 44) vs. Saints (Paris)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)
Keep an eye on this game set for Stade de France in Paris, as rioters and looters have been wreaking havoc in parts of the city. The Saints were scheduled to leave on Sunday night per Adam Schefter and the Steelers are going to leave on Thursday night. Not much changed based on this past week’s results, as the Saints beat the Giants and then left for Paris from NYC. The Steelers were down in Tampa and needed overtime to beat the Bucs after coming back from a 16-3 deficit. I’m sure we’ll see some line movement here, though I’m not sure which way, as 2.5 was the lookahead number and is still the number at most shops, though Circa opened 2 and some in the market mirrored that. Fanduel was actually 1.5 as of Sunday night.
Buccaneers at Panthers (-3, 45)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Carolina was idle this past week, so the Panthers didn’t have a data point to use to adjust the lookahead number. The Bucs lost to the Steelers, though they were the better team for three quarters and had a good chance to win. This number is pretty consistent across the map at either 3 with extra juice or 3.5 with reduced juice, depending on the sportsbook. The total is where we did see some movement, as the lookahead line was 44.5 and now it sits as low as 43.5 out there. Circa did not take that bait, as they opened the total at 45.
Dolphins at Jets (-5.5, 39.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Will this line hold at -5 or higher? If so, it will be the first time since Week 8 of the 2024 season that the Jets are -5 or greater against an opponent. They were actually favored by 5 or more three times during that 2024 season, losing two of them. The Dolphins are no strangers to being an underdog this season and we saw some extensive Survivor carnage in Week 6 because fading them wasn’t an option. DraftKings was still holding 4.5 as of Sunday night, while Fanduel and others were 5.5. It really doesn’t take much to move a number between 4 and 6, but it could be telling to see which way this goes.
Browns (-2, 36.5) at Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The FIRST-PLACE CLEVELAND BROWNS are laying a short road number in Tennessee, a number that probably would have been a little bit bigger had the Titans not roared back to steal one from the Colts with a 20-point fourth quarter. The Browns were a road favorite just once last season and lost 27-20 to the Jets laying 2.5. Cleveland has lost four in a row as a road favorite, with all three of the other games coming in the 2024 calendar year. Even though the Browns were victorious over the Ravens, the lookahead number didn’t move at DraftKings. Had the Titans lost, we’d probably see 2.5 or maybe even 3 here.
Giants at Texans (-8.5, 43)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Houston has some big expectations this week after knocking off the Jaguars in London. The Giants got a ton of garbage-time production from JJ McCarthy, but that was really the only highlight of their 34-27 loss to the Saints. The Giants scored 17 of those 27 in the fourth quarter, possibly creating a little bit of a QB controversy heading into this game. The Texans were -7 in the lookahead market and now find themselves pushing double digits, as a win this week would go a long way in helping the team forget about the 0-4 start. Circa took a more cautious approach, opening the game 8.5, while others showed 9 or 9.5.
49ers (-4, 50.5) at Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
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Colts at Vikings (-6, 42.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
While the Vikings were watching on their couches, the Colts were blowing a big lead at home to the hapless Titans. The jury is definitely out on Minnesota still for this season, but they are a pretty big favorite this week. DraftKings had 5.5 before Sunday’s results and then pushed Minny out to -6. Circa opened up their board at 5.5 and that’s where most of the market was as of Sunday night.
Bengals at Ravens (-3, 51)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
I’m a little bit surprised by this line, which seems to imply that Lamar Jackson will play. The Ravens really don’t look good under Jesse Minter thus far and Derrick Henry even lost a fumble against the Browns to let you know how things are going in Baltimore. The Bengals had the week off. They are a flawed team as well, but coming off of the bye could help Zac Taylor’s squad. As you would expect, losing to the Browns is bad for perception, as Baltimore was mostly -3.5 in the lookahead markets. The total in the low 50s certainly implies that Lamar will play.
Broncos (-4, 43) at Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Cardinals shocked a lot of people, including a lot of people in Survivor pools, with a last-second field goal drive to beat the Rams. The Rams are not playing well at all, but you still have to give the Cardinals some love for a win of that magnitude. DraftKings actually had this line sitting higher in the lookahead markets, predominantly showing 5.5 before Arizona’s major upset. The Broncos are well-rested, having beaten the Seahawks in overtime last Thursday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line swing more in their direction as the week rolls along.
Packers at Lions (-3.5, 53)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
The lookahead number was pretty standard-issue for this game, slapping a -3 on the home team in a divisional rivalry game. Put a total in the low 50s on it and you know you’re dealing with an NFC North game. The Lions were one of the four idle teams last week, so they didn’t do anything to alter the minds of bettors. The Packers, however, took care of business against the Cowboys and I think we’ll see 2.5s on this spread as some shops tonight and in the morning.
Rams (-6, 47) at Raiders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Rams are quite a riddle this season. From a talent standpoint, you have to continue to view them as one of the league’s best teams. But, they’re certainly not playing like it. The Cardinals picked up their second win at SoFi Stadium this season with that upset as a double-digit pup and now you have to wonder if the Rams will even hold up against the Raiders. The last two weeks have served as wake-up calls for the Silver & Black, losing to the Patriots and then the Bills. Things got crazy in the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium with 27 points in the final period, but the Raiders came up a field goal short. Still, it was a game effort and enough to push this line to 5.5 and 6 after the lookahead number was 7.
Chiefs at Seahawks (-2.5, 43)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Another workmanlike effort pushed the Chiefs out to 5-0, as they held the Chargers without a touchdown coming off of the bye. Now a pretty rested KC team heads to the PNW to take on a rested Seattle team. The Seahawks did lose on Thursday Night Football to the Broncos, but remain dangerous and talented, despite the 3-3 record. We did see 1.5 appear for a time at DraftKings on Sunday afternoon, but that moved back to 2.5 rather quickly. Fanduel was still dug in at 1.5 as the odds screen was lighting up on Sunday night. I think we could see the age-old sharp vs. public split here, with the public on the dog and the sharp money expecting the favorites to show up.
Cowboys (-4.5, 44.5) at Eagles
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
With the scary news that Jalen Hurts is out indefinitely with a blood clot, the Cowboys were -5.5 heading to Philly in the lookahead markets at DraftKings and 6 at BetMGM. The Eagles didn’t have a ton of supporters in the investment community before the Hurts news, as evidenced by the fact that this line was Philadelphia -1.5 in the lookahead market at DK and then adjusted as a result of the breaking news. In light of Dallas’ performance on Sunday Night Football, the line is now 4.5, as the Cowboys did not show well in the primetime slot.
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