Some are calling last week the best week of college football that we’ve ever had. It might be a little bit hyperbolic or carry some recency bias, but it was a damn good week of games. Several of the top games lived up to the hype. There were some intriguing upsets that could stir up some College Football Playoff drama following a weekend in which we found out that the CFP is expanding yet again, this time to 24 teams.
While Week 8 doesn’t have as many marquee battles, Team Chaos might get its wish once again. We have several top-25 teams on the road, including Indiana, Texas Tech, LSU, BYU, Tennessee, Iowa, Boise State, and USC. Not only do those games have some interesting opening lines and initial line movements, but there are others that have some notes and nuggets worth mentioning.
Week 8 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Sunday, October 18 at 5:00 p.m. ET
Missouri State vs. Delaware (-3.5, 52)
Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Speculation about the status of Delaware QB Nick Minicucci is the story here again, as we saw Delaware a road favorite against Middle Tennessee last week, but Minicucci wasn’t able to play and they lost the game by a field goal. While most of the market was sitting on -3 shortly after open, Circa was at 3.5. But, they moved to mirror the market based on initial bets taken. It does seem like Minicucci, who was termed “week-to-week” by head coach Ryan Carty in his Saturday media availability, won’t play again. Freshman Tyler Bell was sacked six times and had 18 carries for 19 yards against MTSU, but he did throw for over 300 yards.
New Mexico State (-3, 44.5) vs. Sam Houston State
Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
We’ll see if this line holds, but it probably will, as Sam Houston was horrendous last week against Western Kentucky. If it does, this will be New Mexico State’s first road favorite role since Week 8 of the 2023 season. The Aggies went to El Paso and beat UTEP 28-7 in that one. The Aggies were also a road favorite in Week 9 of the 2022 season and beat UMass. Prior to that, go back to 2018 for another road win as chalk in El Paso. So, the Aggies have won three straight and covered three straight as a road favorite over the last nine seasons. When a program that bad is favored, it is worth noticing.
East Carolina vs. Memphis (-10.5, 53.5)
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
I am always interested in seeing how Group of Six teams bounce back when their goals are squashed. By losing to Tulane last week, Memphis effectively ruined any chance of being the G6 CFP representative, picking up a second loss on the season. East Carolina’s loss to UAB was bad, especially as a road favorite, but the overtime pick-six that made it a 13-point result certainly made the outcome look worse than it was. Do we see the Tigers let out some frustration and pummel the Pirates? Does East Carolina have a bounce back in them? Early line movement has leaned towards the Memphis side of the ledger, as multiple books opened 9.5 and moved into double digits.
Duke vs. Virginia (-2.5, 47)
Friday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The two power-conference games on Friday are both from the ACC, with one in Virginia and one in California. I’m still not used to that and it’s the third season of it already. Anyway, Duke and Virginia is the early one and I find this line interesting. Virginia’s been stunningly inconsistent a season removed from being the ACC regular season champ. Duke has lost back-to-back games after a 4-0 start. With the Hoos at home here and the Blue Devils off of a rivalry game loss to North Carolina, a 3 here wouldn’t have been surprising. Virginia’s loss to Florida State looks a lot better now than it did at the time and the loss last week to SMU is certainly forgivable. But, the line opened 1.5 at some shops and hit 2.5, but didn’t touch the key number of 3. We’ll see if it does, but the context clues are ringing loud alarm bells here I think.
Oregon (-11.5, 51.5) vs. Illinois
Saturday, 3 p.m. ET (BTN)
Keep an eye on this line. Oregon barely squeaked by Nebraska, yet we saw a move from 10.5 to 11.5 after opening. QB Dante Moore has participated in practice and threw before the game against the Cornhuskers, so maybe there’s some speculatory money coming in thinking he’ll be back. On the other hand, this might also be an adjustment to the Illini because QB Katin Houser is out with a busted hand. Freshman backup Michael Clayton II was 6-for-8 for 88 yards and two TD in the overtime win over Michigan State prior to Illinois’ bye week. A lot of moving injury parts here, as Oregon WRs Evan Stewart and Dakorien Moore are also in that spotlight.
Tennessee (-1.5, 50.5) vs. South Carolina
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
This is going to be the most-discussed line of the week. Tennessee just beat Alabama by 16. South Carolina opted not to fire Shane Beamer during the bye week, likely because they went on the road and beat Florida just before that. A 6-1 Tennessee team whose only loss was by a field goal to then-No. 1 Texas against a .500 South Carolina team that lost by 31 points to Alabama. “Trap lines” don’t actually exist. Sportsbooks will take positions, but they’re not openly deceptive. This is where their numbers and ratings and customer data have caused them to place this number. I cannot envision a flipped favorite situation unless it’s a market manipulation move by some powerful people, but the Vols will be a shockingly small favorite in the minds of most. Circa actually opened this line a pick ‘em.
Sacramento State vs. Ball State (-11.5, 51)
Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
I knew the second I saw this line that I’d be writing about it. This is the first time since Week 12 of the 2023 season that Ball State has been a double-digit favorite over a FBS team. Prior to that, you have to go back to Week 10 of the 2021 season. Dating back to 1990, Ball State is 51-9-1 SU as a double-digit favorite, but just 23-36-2 ATS. Shout-out to the KillerSports database for that one. I will say, Sacramento State is the lowest power-rated FBS team I’ve had in quite some time, so they deserve every bit of this number.
Hawaii (-4.5, 44) at Northern Illinois
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (MW+)
If you haven’t figured out a fantasy baseball punishment yet or maybe have quarterly fantasy football punishments, subjecting the last-place finisher to watching this game might be viewed as a war crime, but it would be funny. This is about as weird as a travel spot gets, as Northern Illinois in DeKalb is in the Mountain West. The highest natural point in Illinois is Charles Mound in Jo Daviess County and it is 1,235 feet in elevation. DeKalb is at 883 feet of elevation. I guess Hawaii doesn’t fit the Mountain West mold, but it is west and there are mountains. Anyway, NIU is one of the worst football teams in the nation, but this line opened 6.5 and has been bet down to 4.5. Of course, it merits a mention that moving a college football number between 4 and 6 takes very little effort. Still worth noting this line move. Also, the total has been bet down pretty sharply after open.
Boise State (-13, 51) vs. Washington State
Saturday, 6 p.m. ET (USA Network)
This line is an example of why studying the box score is important. Oregon State beat Washington State 48-30, falling right around the number, which was 18.5 throughout the week. But, the Cougars got a massive lift offensively from Owen Eshelman in his first start. He threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 136 more yards with a TD. He averaged better than nine yards per carry. There was nothing remarkable about the final score in that game, but Eshelman’s stat line was pretty remarkable, especially compared to what Caden Pinnick had been doing. A lot of shops, including Circa, opened 14 on this game. It was down to as low as 12.5 by time of writing.
Georgia State (-2, 56.5) vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
You know me. I love historical outliers, especially in the G6. Things have been very rough for Georgia State recently. Here they are as a road favorite against Arkansas State. This is their first road favorite role since Week 3 of the 2023 season at Charlotte, a game that they won 41-25. In fact, as a FBS member, Georgia State has been a road favorite nine times. They’ve gone 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in those games. Just something to think about if they stay favored. Even if they don’t, this team is dramatically better than recent versions.
USC (-1.5, 49) vs. Wisconsin
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
I really like this game a lot. We saw a ton of market hesitation with regards to USC when they went to Penn State before the bye week. The 42-35 win over Rutgers further fueled the Lincoln Riley traveling east betting angle and then we saw a lot of reluctance to take the Trojans in Happy Valley, even though this is objectively not a good Penn State team. I guess we don’t really know how good USC is, since blowing out San Jose State, Fresno State, and Louisiana doesn’t really do much for anybody. With Wisconsin’s total offensive no-show in the Rose Bowl last week, I’m inclined to think that this line will rise, even with the Riley sentiment out there.
Ole Miss vs. Texas (-3.5, 52.5)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
I think you’ll be hard-pressed to find anybody who wants to back Texas in this game. The trendy underdog is always a scary proposition, but Texas looks bad, Arch Manning looks bad, and any injury to star EDGE Colin Simmons is a problem. Simmons sprained his ankle in the loss to Florida and that’s the kind of guy you’d love to have when chasing Trinidad Chambliss around. Right now, it seems like we’re in a holding pattern with this line, but I’m sure it’ll move at some point one way or the other.
Utah State vs. Texas State (-11, 59.5)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (CBSSN)
Texas State took pretty heavy money last week against Colorado State, which I thought mostly had to do with Rams QB Hauss Hejny out. But, we’re seeing Bobcats money hit the board again this week. It would appear that modelers out there must like this team a lot more than what the opening numbers would suggest. This one moved from 9.5 to as high as 11.5 as of Sunday evening. Just another game to watch, as buyback at this line would be noteworthy.
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
