There are a lot of road favorites on the NFL card this week with eight of them, plus the “road” team is favored in Brazil between the Ravens and Cowboys. Getting into the rhythms and routines of the season, along with hopping on a plane and sleeping in a bed that’s not your own, can take some time. We’ll see if those teams can live up to expectations or if home dogs are barking.
Home dogs in Week 2 from 2021-25 were just 10-25 SU and 15-17-3 ATS per the KillerSports database, but the Under was 23-11-1. If you look at home dogs here in Week 3, they’re a little bit feistier with a 14-16 SU record and a 15-15 ATS mark. The one constant? The Under is 23-7 in those 30 games. I am not a trends guy at all, but I do think there could be some interesting takeaways regarding early-season perception and, as I mentioned above, getting into the routines of the season.
One of those home dogs is among my favorite NFL picks of the week.
Bengals (-3.5, 43) vs. Steelers Prediction
Pick: Steelers +3.5
The Bengals are off to a nice 2-0 start as they head to the Steel City to take on rival Pittsburgh. But, I have to say, I have some questions and some concerns. Let’s start with the Week 1 win over the Bucs. After watching the Bucs last week and following their Week 1 game, I think this team might just stink. Baker Mayfield looks pretty bad without Mike Evans and there haven’t been any game-changers on defense in the back seven.
Cincinnati was +3 in TO margin in that 33-27 win over Tampa Bay and probably should have won by more. On the surface, last week’s 20-6 win over the Texans is very impressive, though the Bengals only mustered 4.5 yards per play on offense and only had 12 first downs. The Texans had four trips into the red zone and failed to score a touchdown on any of them. Cincinnati had just one red-zone appearance and cashed it in.
Cincinnati hasn’t forced an interception yet, as all four takeaways against TB were fumble recoveries. They’re getting outgained for the season and have only outgained opponents by 0.1 yards per play. This is a pretty presumptuous number at 3.5 for a division rivalry game.
And, look, I get it, the Steelers look really bad. They’ve only picked up 0.64 points per drive and only have 3.4 yards per carry. New England, for all of the Drake Maye warts and the upgraded schedule talk, remains a very good defensive team. So far, the Steelers have only allowed one red-zone trip and have the third-best third-down defense in the league. Those are positives on that side of the ball. They are the worst third-down offense in the NFL, but I’m still not convinced about the Bengals defense.
I think this is a game where water finds its level for both teams, in that the Bengals regress a bit and the Steelers show improvement.
Titans vs. Giants (-2.5, 38.5) Prediction
Pick: Titans +2.5
The weather is going to be a huge factor in this game, as the nor’easter is going to be blowing wind and rain around at the Meadowlands. That does add a degree of variance to the game, which inherently pushes me towards the underdog. That is especially true in this game where you have Jameis Winston and he’s a wild card when it comes to taking care of the ball.
What I’m really looking at here, though, is that I find the Titans to be the more proficient rushing team. Tony Pollard has 4.7 yards per carry and Tyjae Spears has 5.3 yards per carry. Overall, the Titans have 4.4 YPC, with some of Cam Ward’s scrambles holding things back. On the flip side, Cam Skattebo has 3.9 YPC and Devin Singletary has 2.8 YPC.
Tennessee is seventh in Rush EPA so far, while the Giants are 13th. The Titans are also higher in rushing success rate. That should help here with the weather and does suggest to me that they have the better offensive line, at least when it comes to running the ball.
The other thing is that first-year OC Matt Nagy probably put together the offense to highlight the strengths of Jaxson Dart, who will be out for the season. Dart already had 11 runs in 1+ games, which does worry me with Winston and his lesser mobility. If nothing else, the Titans look like a strong teaser candidate to go from 2.5 to 8.5.
Raiders vs. Saints Prediction (-3, 43.5)
Pick: Saints -3
The Raiders are off to a 2-0 start and are one of the early-season surprises. Now they take their show on the road and do play a game in the 4 p.m. window, so it’s not one of those dreaded early kickoffs. So far, the Raiders have been outgained by 0.4 yards per play, mostly because they’ve found very little success running the football with just 2.8 yards per carry. The Raiders are 22nd in EPA/play on offense thus far and just 26th in Success Rate.
Because of the takeaways and some of the special teams situations, the Raiders have an average starting field position of their own 39-yard-line. That doesn’t strike me as a trend that will continue and this is a team that is already 24th in third-down conversion rate. As they start deeper in their own territory, the point-scoring success will likely fall off.
The Saints are an above average offense in several areas and Tyler Shough has shown a propensity for throwing the ball around the yard. I do think we’ll continue to see more Travis Etienne as things go forward and he’s got nine catches to go with 17 attempts. I would anticipate that we’re going to keep seeing this team improve, much like they did towards the end of last season.
I’m also quite high on Brandon Staley as the DC and we saw a very good Saints unit last season on the whole. I’d expect better numbers here after starting with the Lions and Ravens, as the Raiders are off to a nice start, but their personnel isn’t on that level.
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