NFL Player Props
More injuries and more snaps mean more insight into some of the best NFL player prop bets for Week 3. You never want to see guys get hurt, but the opportunities that it creates for other players is something that we can look to take advantage of on a weekly basis. And, remember, that doesn’t necessarily mean betting Overs on the replacements or the players likely to get increased snaps, targets, and handoffs. It also means that you can bet Under on some things, as certain injuries can impact players negatively.
I’ve got my First Touchdown Scorer picks here and now here’s a look at my favorite Week 3 NFL Player Props. Dustin Swedelson already gave us some of his favorite player prop bets that lined up with our OptaAI projections.
We also have some awesome tools here at VSiN to help with your prop betting picks, including our OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections, exclusively available to our Pro Subscribers. Whether you use them as confirmation of a play that you already like or scan through to find the biggest edges, it is just another weapon in your arsenal against the sportsbooks while trying to build up that bankroll.
As always, shop around for these Week 3 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Friday, September 25 and are from DraftKings.
Here are my favorite Week 3 NFL Player Prop Bets:
Aaron Rodgers (PIT) Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+160)
It has been a miserable start to the season for the Pittsburgh offense, as they failed to even find the end zone last week against the Patriots. Rodgers hasn’t been able to stretch the field much, as NFL Next Gen Stats has him down for an average of three completed air yards, but he has an average of 7.1 intended air yards. As we move along, I would expect Rodgers to adjust, Mike McCarthy to adjust, and the wide receivers to do some things differently as well.
The Texans had four red-zone appearances last week and failed to score a TD, as CJ Stroud was 2-of-5 passing for -2 yards and two sacks. But, they had chances. The Buccaneers scored 27 points in a game where they lost four fumbles. I do believe that the Cincy defense is being a little bit overrated right now and I anticipate Rodgers and his teammates to be crisper this week with an easier assignment.
OptaAI has Rodgers down for 1.3 passing TDs. I’m a bit more bullish than that.
Quinshon Judkins (CLE) Under 61.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Judkins, who is coming back from a major knee injury, hasn’t shown much burst this season at all. Collectively, the Browns have been a poor rushing team and a poor run-blocking unit. Judkins has 54 yards total in two games. Last game against the Bucs, Judkins had 12 carries and just five total yards before contact. He had 23 yards before contact on 12 attempts with 33 yards total in Week 1. It’s just not there for him right now.
Raheim “Rocket” Sanders only played 11 snaps last week, but I think we’ll see more of him this week. Judkins just hasn’t found running room, averaging just 2.3 yards per carry. With a guy like Todd Monken, you would expect him to adjust and find some better gains in that department, but I can’t help but wonder if he’ll look to Sanders to do that, since Judkins just doesn’t look fully back yet. Also, with how well Deshaun Watson played last week, and probably a negative game state for running the ball, I think it would take a lot for Judkins to surpass this number.
OptaAI has Judkins down for 61.74 rushing yards, so a very optimistic number.
Patriots/Jaguars Over 6.5 Punts (-115)
This game brings together two top-five defenses in third-down conversion rate, as the Patriots lead the league at 17.4% and the Jaguars are fourth at 26.3%. The Patriots have also allowed the fourth-fewest air yards and have the fourth-lowest average depth of target.
We know all about Drake Maye’s struggles against good teams, as evidenced by last season’s playoffs and what he did in Week 1 against the Seahawks. Neither team has stood out running the rock to stay on schedule and create third-and-manageable situations with regularity, so I could see this game morphing into a bit of a punt fest at times.
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