NFL Player Props
Quarterback injuries could have a huge impact on Week 10 in the NFL, including the production of skill players. Multiple teams have gone deep down the depth chart or will be starting recent trade acquisitions this week. The coaches and coordinators will have to decide which adjustments to make on both sides of the ball, so you could have defenses selling out to stop the run or offenses trying to get the ground game going. You could also see the opposite. If you guess right, it could be a huge week. If you guess wrong, it’s a learning experience for future weeks.
VSiN Pro Subscribers have access to our OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections — I’ve looked through those and also looked over what the sportsbooks have to offer to find some of my favorite props for Week 10.
I’ve got my First Touchdown Scorer picks here.
As always, shop around for these Week 10 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 4:20 p.m. PT on Friday, November 13 and are from DraftKings.
Here are my favorite Week 10 NFL Player Prop Bets:
Patrick Mahomes (KC) Over 21.5 Completions (-128)
Mahomes is 4-4 to this number this season. Conventional wisdom would suggest an Under because he was hurt last week against the Jets, even though he did come back into the game. I’m actually looking at this the opposite way. I don’t think we’ll see Mahomes throw anything deep here, but some short throws or maybe shovel passes as an extension of the run could help keep the Falcons defense honest.
Atlanta has allowed the fifth-highest completion percentage against, so you can throw the ball against them. Two of the games where Mahomes went Under were against division opponents who have a much better grasp of what Andy Reid wants to do.
The Falcons are just 28th in plays per drive and 27th in third-down conversion rate. That should also help the Chiefs maintain control of the football and run more plays, thus giving Mahomes more chances to throw.
Kaleb Johnson (GB) Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The Vikings acquired Kirk Cousins this week on the heels of a ghastly performance from Carson Wentz. It might not take him long to re-acclimate in Minnesota, but you never know. This offense has had more problems than just Kyler Murray and Wentz. Cousins is having a good season, but will he have rhythm and timing with the receivers in his first game back?
Johnson has made the most of his opportunities when he has gotten them and he should have some here with Josh Jacobs out. Johnson had 14 carries for 68 yards in the blowout win over the Patriots last time out and the Vikings are a team that you can run the ball against. While Brian Flores’ blitz-happy defense has been great against the pass, it has been a lesser unit against the run. We saw Joe Brady and the Bills keep running the rock until it finally worked on Monday night, as Buffalo ran 44 times, including 31 carries for James Cook. I like the Packers -3 here, so there’s a bit of correlation as well, in that I foresee a favorable game state for Johnson to have chances.
Daniel Jones (IND) Longest Completion Under 32.5 Yards (-107)
Jones has a completion of 33+ yards in four of his nine games this season. His completed air yards per completion is just 4.6 yards this season, an enormous drop from 6.7 last season. His completed air yards per pass attempt is 2.8, another sizable drop from 4.6 last season. He’s also averaging fewer yards after catch per completion.
The Dolphins have pressed well in coverage, holding opponents to an average depth of target of just 6.7 yards, which is fourth in the NFL. They have also allowed the seventh-fewest yards after catch in the league. Jones doesn’t really look to push the ball vertical very often and Miami has had a sure set of tacklers. Game state also plays a role here with a bad Dolphins team, but I just don’t see Indy’s offense being very explosive.
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