NFL First Touchdown
We’re heading into the second half of the NFL season, so the sample sizes are big and the tendencies are becoming clearer. We still have lots of chances to try and cash in on the First Touchdown Scorer market and all of the adjacent markets by tracking how teams are doing early in games. What has been interesting to me is seeing the dichotomy between teams that are just really good at scoring first and those who are really good at playing defense to give the offense ample time to have a touchdown drive.
Before digging into Week 10, let’s look back at Week 9. I like to track first team TDs by position to see if there are any league-wide trends we can pick up on in terms of red-zone usage. The number in parentheses is how many we’ve had this season by position.
QB: 2 (15)
RB: 11 (96)
WR: 7 (91)
TE: 6 (46)
D/ST: 0 (4)
No TD: 4 (20)
Wide receivers seemingly took the brunt of four teams failing to score a touchdown in Week 9. We also have our first team to go without a touchdown in three games – the Minnesota Vikings. We also had our first player to score a first team TD with two different teams. One day Audric Estime will be the answer to an incredibly obscure and difficult trivia question.
The Vikings were one of the additions to the frequent flyer list this week, as some moved up and some showed up.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 6 | 2 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 5 | 2 |
| Bucky Irving (TB) | 5 | 2 |
| Jaxson Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 5 | 2 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 4 | 3 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 4 | 2 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 4 | 2 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 4 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Kenneth Walker (KC) | 3 | 3 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 3 | 3 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Tony Pollard (TEN) | 3 | 2 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 2 |
| Mike Gesicki (CIN) | 3 | 1 |
| Ollie Gordon II (MIA) | 3 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 3 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 3 | 1 |
| Denzel Boston (CLE) | 3 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs (WAS) | 3 | 0 |
| Vikings No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
Red-zone success and opportunity were both in short supply last week. With 30 teams in action, there were only 88 red-zone trips with 47 TDs. Both numbers are season lows. You can see the weekly breakdown and year-to-date results here.
Out of 687 total TD, 520 have been scored in the red zone.
We saw seven first team TDs on the opening possession, which is pretty much in line with the season average. We’re up to 65 for the season, with 10-6-7-7-9-5-10-4-7 from Weeks 1 through 9.
This is helpful info for the First Touchdown Scorer market, but also when betting first quarters and first halves. Some coaches are better with the scripted drive than others. Also, I track whether or not a team scored on its first possession in the First Touchdown Scorer spreadsheet, put together by our Executive Producer Stephanie Kamerschak, who did this article the first few seasons for us.
2026 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Packers | 8/9 (88.9%) |
| 49ers | 7/8 (87.5%) |
| Jaguars | 7/8 (87.5%) |
| Colts | 7/9 (77.8%) |
| Rams | 7/9 (77.8%) |
| Bears | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Chiefs | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Steelers | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Texans | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Patriots | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Raiders | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Panthers | 4/8 (50%) |
| Titans | 4/8 (50%) |
| Broncos | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Buccaneers | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Cowboys | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Eagles | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Falcons | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Ravens | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Seahawks | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Bengals | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Bills | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Commanders | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Dolphins | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Giants | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Lions | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Cardinals | 3/9 (33.3%) |
| Jets | 3/9 (33.3%) |
| Saints | 2/8 (25%) |
| Vikings | 2/8 (25%) |
| Browns | 2/9 (22.2%) |
| Chargers | 1/8 (12.5%) |
We still have a handful of outliers on the good side and on the bad side, but we should, in theory, see some of those regress to the mean a little bit as we go forward. Then again, maybe we won’t, since the teams at the bottom are very offensively-challenged.
Some nuggets from Week 9:
- The only teams not to score on their first possession are the Browns, Broncos, Rams, Vikings, and Saints – this is the same list from last week; the Browns vs. Saints game did only have three points in the first quarter and six points in the first half, so hopefully you were able to cash those derivative Unders as a result of this exercise
- Of the six teams with a first team TD from a TE, three had their first ones of the season – Bills, Cowboys, Seahawks
- Streaks
- Yes: 49ers (7), Bears (4), Bills, Packers, Jaguars, Chiefs, Steelers, Titans (2)
- No: Chargers (5), Cardinals, Jets (4), Panthers, Bengals, Patriots, Saints (3), Ravens (2)
With that, let’s get to the Week 10 action and look at some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible
NFL Week 10 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2026
Commanders (37.5%) at Giants (37.5%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
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Patriots (55.6%) vs. Lions (37.5%) (Munich) – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
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Bills (37.5%) at Jets (33.3%) – 1 p.m. ET
Jaguars (87.5%) at Titans (50%)
Dolphins (37.5%) at Colts (77.8%)
Chiefs (62.5%) at Falcons (44.4%)
Texans (62.5%) at Browns (22.2%)
Panthers (50%) at Saints (25%)
Vikings (25%) at Packers (88.9%)
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Seahawks (44.4%) at Raiders (55.6%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Rams (77.8%) at Cardinals (33.3%)
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49ers (87.5%) at Cowboys (44.4%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
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Steelers (62.5%) at Bengals (37.5%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
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Chargers (12.5%) at Ravens (44.4%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 10 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Bhayshul Tuten +450, Jakobi Meyers +1100, Ameer Abdullah +3500
We’ve got some big mismatches this week, including this game. The Jaguars have actually scored the first TD on their first possession of the game in each of the last two weeks coming out of the bye. Tuten had last week’s first score and Brian Thomas Jr. had the first score two weeks ago.
I’m hoping it’s a numbers game soon for Meyers. Parker Washington leads the team in targets and red-zone targets, but he’s had trouble connecting with Trevor Lawrence lately. Over the last three games, Washington has 20 targets and only seven catches. Meyers had three catches on three targets in his first two games, but has had 3+ targets in every other game. He hasn’t scored a TD since the end of September, but he’s comfortably second on the squad in red-zone targets with eight.
Tuten leads the team with 19 red-zone carries and has had the first TD three times. I’m throwing Abdullah in here because he had four red-zone carries last week. He has 13 carries in the last two games in just 16 snaps. I feel like Liam Coen either figured out where he wanted to use him coming out of the bye or he’s just trying to get the veteran a touchdown.
Green Bay Packers: Kaleb Johnson +850, Matthew Golden +900
While Pierre Strong outsnapped Johnson last week, I don’t think that will be the case this week. The Josh Jacobs injury has given the Packers another opportunity to experience life without their franchise back, which could be a more frequent thing moving forward based on the legal trouble that he’s in. Johnson had two red-zone carries last week and a touchdown, while Strong had one carry and one target. I still think Johnson is the guy that they want to see succeed, though Strong’s price at 18/1 isn’t bad.
Golden has become the clear red-zone option for Jordan Love, as he has 11 catches on 16 targets and his four touchdowns lead the team. Generally speaking, Golden is the star of the show here with 92 targets, 18 more than Christian Watson. Over the last four weeks, Golden has had double-digit targets in every game. He’s scored five TDs in his last seven games. It’s not a big price, but I’ll take it.
Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams +360, Blake Corum +600
Perhaps Matthew Stafford throws in a TD first here and good for him if so, but Williams and Corum have combined for four of the Rams first TDs over nine games and Puka Nacua’s absence should also help the cause for these two guys. Last season, Corum only had one first team TD, but Williams had eight of them. Interestingly, Corum’s came on the road against the Cardinals, though it was not the first score of the game.
Still, with a Carson Beck-led Cardinals offense, it is virtually impossible for me to not think about the Rams and their running backs in this circumstance.
San Francisco 49ers: Christian McCaffrey +360, George Kittle +900
I’m not going to get cute with a big mismatch here either. I’ll take the short price on McCaffrey, who has scored the first TD in each of the last two games for San Francisco, as the Niners have scored on their first possession in three straight and five of seven. Kittle only has one appearance here, but his 12 red-zone targets lead the team and so do his nine catches.
This one isn’t as big of a mismatch as others, but the 49ers have been very proficient in this department for several weeks in a row now.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season.
