NFL Player Prop Bets Week 8:

Injuries at the skill positions will play a big role in this week’s NFL games. That will also create some player prop betting opportunity because somebody has to get the targets and touches. You definitely want to factor all of those things into the equation, along with weather and game state, as I talked about last week.

I think we’re actually really fortunate to not have bad weather this week. We’re talking about NFL games on October 27 and we only have a few games with some modest wind concerns (Miami, Seattle, San Francisco) and only one shows a high chance of precipitation (Seattle, shocking!). It’ll have to go into your routine to check that moving forward, but we’re mostly in the clear this week.

 

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Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.

Here are some NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 8

Spencer Rattler (NO) Over 18.5 Completions (-110)

The Saints are in a pretty tough spot this week against the Chargers, as they really haven’t played well after lighting up the scoreboard in Weeks 1 and 2. But, I think there are some good opportunities with their props in this game. Rattler is the one I’m focused on, as he’s 47-for-75 through two starts, posting 40 pass attempts in the 51-27 loss to Tampa Bay and 35 in the 33-10 loss to Denver.

This line obviously implies that Rattler and the Saints will be trailing, so that clearly alters the game state. What it also does is allow a QB to play against soft coverage in the second half, namely the fourth quarter. In two games, Rattler is 21-for-30 in the first half and 26-for-45 in the second half, so he’s been throwing with a higher frequency while trailing, but the game script has been nice and easy for him early in the game.

The Chargers rank second per RBSDM.com in Rush EPA defense and are fifth in Dropback EPA, so they’re good in both areas, but better against the run. Opponents have completed 67% of passes against the Chargers, who are fourth in yards after catch allowed. They’re just looking to prevent big plays. They’ll allow some underneath stuff, but want to avoid the explosives. With Rattler likely to be in the mid-30s or better in attempts, he should get over this number. LA is also 31st in Pressure% per Pro-Football-Reference, so Rattler should have some time to throw.

Nick Chubb (CLE) Under 48.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Chubb is likely to be on a pitch count this week against the Ravens and the line would suggest that the game state is going to push new play caller Ken Dorsey into throwing a lot. In fact, Jameis Winston’s pass attempts prop line is 35.5. I think that’s a little high, as we could see the Ravens just control clock all game long and limit how many offensive snaps the Browns actually get.

Chubb does have the benefit of a healthier offensive line here, as Wyatt Teller is expected to return, but still. Chubb had 22 yards on 11 attempts last week and played 30 snaps (36%). That was a close game. I can’t help but feel like the Browns try not to put him at too much risk if they are trailing.

Furthermore, the Ravens are fifth in Rush EPA and, more importantly, first in Rush Success Rate on defense. A successful play is a measure of how yards are gained relative to down and distance. The Ravens have the lowest Rush Success Rate against at 29.9%. Nobody else is lower than 32.6%. In simpler terms, the Ravens have allowed the fewest yards per carry with 3.3. They are the only NFL team to allow fewer than 500 rushing yards thus far and have given up just 68.4 per game. I think he struggles to find running room and touches.

Tucker Kraft (GB) Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Kraft is second on the Packers in yards after catch (YAC) and gets a really favorable matchup here against the Jaguars. The Jags have allowed the second-most YAC with 1,107, better than only the Saints. Kraft’s workload has been a little erratic, as he had nine targets in Jordan Love’s first game back, and then has had 5, 4, and 4.

The Jaguars have the worst pass defense in the NFL by Dropback EPA and rank 26th in Dropback Success Rate. They are actually above average against the run, so I would expect a pass-happy game plan from the Packers in this one, with Kraft as one of the potential benefactors.

Green Bay has not yet faced a team in the bottom eight in YAC allowed, so this should be a good game for the pass catchers across the board, including Kraft.

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