NFL Player Props
A plethora of props awaits us for Super Bowl LX. We’ve seen a ton of movement on the odds in the market and we’re only going to see more as bettors continue to pepper the sportsbooks with wagers all the way up until kickoff. I’ve been putting out a props article every Friday throughout the NFL season and playoffs and I’m certainly not going to stop now with the big game and the big menu.
As always, it is critically important to shop around for the best odds. I’m looking specifically at DraftKings Sportsbook for this exercise, but you may find a better line at any of the other sportsbooks out there. Don’t settle for a lesser number if you can help it. I wrote up some of my Super Bowl prop strategies, as well as a look at the history of the Super Bowl MVP market, so you can give those some consideration if you’d like.
OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.
And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.
As always, shop around for these Super Bowl NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 6:45 p.m. PT on Friday, February 6 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some NFL Player Props for the Super Bowl:
Drake Maye Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-109)
The Seahawks are far and away the best run defense in the NFL by Rush EPA and Rush Success Rate, inclusive of their two playoff games. According to RBSDM, the Seahawks have a Rush EPA of -0.206. The Saints are the next closest defense at -0.136. From a Success Rate standpoint, which is based on down and distance, the Seahawks are at 35.8%, with the Broncos second at 36.3%, so not as big of a gap, but still clearly tops in the league.
The Patriots led the NFL with 10.1 yards per attempt on 1st down passes during the regular season, but were 23rd in total number of pass attempts. I have to think McDaniels is looking to change up his philosophy in hopes of throwing something unexpected at the Seahawks. I think that’ll lead to more Maye passes on the whole.
OptaAI has Maye for 33.35 pass attempts.
Rhamondre Stevenson Longest Reception Over 12.5 Yards (-125)
The vig was better on this when I added it to the best bets section of our Super Bowl Betting Guide.
While game state had a lot to do with this, the Seahawks allowed the most receptions to running backs (97) during the regular season and the sixth-most receiving yards. Stevenson was 28th among pass catchers in yards after catch per reception according to Pro-Football-Reference. The Seahawks had 110 missed tackles per PFR during the season and allowed the second-most yards after catch in the league.
Stevenson had seven receptions on eight targets in the first two playoff games, but wasn’t able to link up with Maye in the AFC Championship Game, so I feel like the Patriots may look to use him more in this game as something that perhaps the Seahawks aren’t expecting as much. He’s also gotten a lot more touches and opportunities than TreVeyon Henderson in the playoffs. Stevenson had 37 targets without a drop in the regular season and caught 32 of them, so he’s been a reliable pass-catcher when called upon.
George Holani Under 10.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
While OCs do like to zig and zag when you talk about a game of this magnitude, Holani’s been an ineffective runner all season long. He had 3.3 yards per carry in the regular season and had three carries for just four yards in the win over the Rams. He had six touches on 23 offensive snaps, so it’s pretty clear that his role is more about picking up blitzes.
He did have 27 receiving yards and I think that’s the more likely way that he gets used in this game. The Patriots don’t have a great run defense by the advanced metrics, but that’s where Kenneth Walker will come in. Also, Klint Kubiak has given a high percentage of the touches to Walker, JSN, and Kupp throughout the postseason and it makes sense to give your best players the ball. Holani is not among their best players.
OptaAI has Holani for 16.9 rushing yards.
Shortest Field Goal Made Under 27.5 Yards (-115)
Both of these teams were in the bottom half of the league in red zone efficiency on offense. The Patriots actually had a bad red zone defense, but allowed just 40 trips into the red zone, so it didn’t burn them too badly. Seattle had the fifth-best red zone defense. The Seahawks only had 12 fourth down attempts this season, while the Patriots had 25. In a game like this, though, that projects to be a low-scoring, defensive struggle, I think both coaches will take the points when they can.
I also like the Patriots to have the shortest made FG as a team if you can find it. While Seahawks kicker Jason Myers led the league in FG attempts, 27 of his 48 came from 40+.
Craig Woodson Over 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-125)
The vig on this one has also shifted since I wrote it up for our Super Bowl Betting Guide, but I still like it, even with 15 cents of movement on the Over.
The Patriots have really spread the tackles around this season because they like to rotate guys in and out of the lineup. That’s especially true at the linebacker position, where a guy like Christian Elliss has played 60%, 53.3%, and 72.4% of the defensive snaps this postseason. Similarly, Jack Gibbens only played 23.3% and 24% of the snaps in the first two playoff games, but did play 86.2% of the snaps against the Broncos.
That brings me to Woodson, who is essentially an every-down defender, playing 188 of the 193 defensive snaps in the three playoff games for the Patriots. He’s also been out there for 10 special teams snaps, so maybe we get a cheap tackle there. Woodson isn’t a stat sheet filler by any means, but he does have the opportunity based on his playing time to be around the football a good amount. Because his numbers aren’t what some of the other guys are on the Patriots defense, the vig isn’t heavy on either side of this number like it is for others and the Over makes sense to me by virtue of him being on the field probably the most of any defender in the back seven.
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