NFL Player Props Week 11:
We have two big games this week with Ravens/Steelers and Chiefs/Bills, but every game you have a bet on is a big game. Even if you don’t like the spread or total, there are a lot of alternative betting options and player props are among those choices.
Like I talk about every week, injuries, weather, game state, opportunity, and matchup are the things you want to keep in mind when breaking down the odds. After doing that, here are a few of my favorite prop bets.
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Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 11
Will Levis (TEN) Over 0.5 Interceptions (-150)
This one is a little bit chalky, but with good reason. The blitz-happy Vikings have 15 interceptions to lead the league. Levis has thrown seven interceptions in his six games, as he went without a pick for the first time last season in his last start. But, he was sacked seven times, so the pass rush absolutely got to him. He just happened not to throw any picks.
Minnesota has forced multiple turnovers in seven of their nine games this season and they should be able to make Levis very uncomfortable and force him into a mistake or two.
George Pickens (PIT) Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
In three games started by Russell Wilson, Pickens has had 111, 74, and 91 receiving yards on 5, 4, and 5 catches. The Ravens clearly have issues in their secondary, as we have seen time and time again. They are No. 2 in Rush EPA allowed on defense and 30th in Dropback EPA. Russ loves to take his shots downfield and they’ve been to Pickens to this point.
Baltimore has allowed 390 more air yards than any other defense. For good measure, they’ve also allowed the fourth-most yards after catch. You would think that the Ravens would try to adopt the “make somebody else beat us” approach, but who’s to say that they haven’t already been doing that and have still been burned through the air? I think we see a continuation of the big games from Pickens.
Packers/Bears Over 8.5 Punts (+100)
Not a player prop, but a game prop that caught my attention. The Packers are sixth in third-down defense at 33% and the Bears are seventh at 33.3%. Chicago also has the worst third-down conversion rate on offense at a paltry 28.7%. Green Bay is 19th at 37.4%. They’ve had a lot of early-down success, as their 107 third-down attempts are the sixth-fewest, but I think the Bears defense is still pretty good.
Chicago’s defense leads the NFL in Dropback EPA. Green Bay is 10th. I guess it’s possible that the Bears offense gets a boost from Thomas Brown, but I’d be surprised to see any sort of tremendous adjustment.
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