NFL Player Props Week 12:

The player props market is getting all kinds of activity as we head into the weekend of Week 12. It is a great alternative for betting the game if you don’t like anything on the traditional spread or total or simply a market that is open to way more variance.

There are some good opportunities out there this week and I’ve narrowed them down to my three favorite player props of the week.

 

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Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.

Here are some NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 12

Cooper Rush (DAL) Over 208.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Rush has made two starts since Dak Prescott went down and they have been two very different outings. Against the Eagles, Rush was 13-of-23 for 45 yards. He actually gave up some time at the end of the game to Trey Lance, as things got out of hand in the 34-6 rout. In his second effort, which came against the Texans last week, Rush was 32-of-55 for 354 yards.

So, this one is lined somewhere in between, but I do think that Rush will go Over this total. Dallas had five turnovers against the Eagles, including four lost fumbles. That took away some possessions and Philadelphia also played at a slow pace in that one. This week, the Dallas defense will be stretched out and tested by Washington’s offense. And it is a bad Dallas defense that ranks 30th in EPA/play and 25th in Dropback EPA, so some explosives are likely coming against them.

That means getting the ball back to Rush more and also with the need to throw the ball. Washington’s pass defense is a below average unit, ranking 21st in Dropback EPA, 22nd in Dropback Success Rate, and they only have four interceptions.

Rush should get the necessary volume and probably the preferred game state to go Over this total.

Joshua Palmer (LAC) Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Palmer only had 23 yards last week, but he had been over this number in six straight games before that. The Ravens secondary can be had. In fact, we’ve seen a lot of teams take some deep shots against them. They’re a little bit healthier now in some respects, but it is hard to run the football against the Baltimore front and that means taking some downfield cracks.

Palmer has averaged 18.3 yards per reception, so he is a guy that can get out in space or get open down the field. Baltimore is second in Rush EPA defense and second in Success Rate, both by a wide margin. Only the Vikings are better.

But, the Ravens are 28th in Dropback EPA and 19th in Dropback Success Rate. After easing into the campaign after a lost preseason, Justin Herbert has had at least 32 pass attempts in four of the last six games, so Jim Harbaugh has let his QB loose. I have to think he finds Palmer downfield and it may not take more than two catches to get over this.

Tim Settle (HOU) Over 0.25 Sacks (-105)

Titans QBs have been sacked a lot. And I really don’t think that the Lloyd Cushenberry injury has helped at all. Settle is a defensive tackle for the Texans, so he’ll need to get his pressure up the middle in most cases and I think he’s plenty capable of doing that here with such a big void on the interior of the Tennessee OL.

Settle is third on the Texans with 12 pressures and he has five sacks on the season. He had one last week and has three in the last five games. I think this is a golden opportunity based on the personnel for the Titans and the fact that Levis has dealt with 59 pressures in just seven games.

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