NFL Player Props Week 14:

We have 11 games on Sunday and one game on Monday, as another week goes into the books for the 2024 NFL season. Marquee games are few and far between and there are a lot of inconsistent and/or uncomfortable favorites on the board, but also some underdogs that feel like tough bets to make as well. Fortunately, sides and totals aren’t the only NFL bets available. Player props are out there in large quantities and that means we have a good chance to find some good bets with those.

Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.

 

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Here are some NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 14

De’Von Achane (MIA) Over 92.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

The Jets have been objectively bad on defense since Robert Saleh was fired. He was let go after Week 5 and the Jets do not have an interception and have allowed 20 total touchdowns. In those seven games, six of them losses, the Jets have allowed 149, 149, 112, 187, 147, 91, and 84 rushing yards. It seems like maybe they’ve made a bit of an adjustment of late, but I’m not sure that they have the current scheme or form to track everybody on the loaded Dolphins offense.

Teams have run the ball 31+ times in six of the seven games and the one that they won is the one where they allowed 187 rushing yards. I fully expect Mike McDaniel to view Achane as a big part of the offense here. This is a number that Achane has failed to go over in three of his last four games, but I would expect that Miami is more focused on the run here and probably has the game state to run the ball more, as they did in the win over the Raiders when Achane had a touch on half of his 42 offensive snaps.

With 57 catches and 139 rush attempts, the Dolphins have found ways to get him the ball throughout the season and I think he’s the most important offensive piece for them this weekend.

Jameis Winston (CLE) Under 8.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The Steelers have allowed the fewest QB rush attempts (27) and fewest QB rushing yards (123) this season. We know about TJ Watt and the pass rush, but they’ve also been really good with contain. Winston is not a guy looking to run anyway. He did have three carries for 11 yards last week, but also had 58 pass attempts as the Browns trailed throughout.

In the snow game against the Steelers, where it was definitely tough to throw the ball, he only had three carries for seven yards. I don’t think he’ll be looking to run around at all here and the Browns offensive line is a bit healthier than it has been at other times this season. He’s gone over this number in two of his five starts since taking over the role full-time, with 11 and 27 yards, but the Steelers are very good at bottling up QBs.

Keep in mind that Lamar Jackson has four of those rush attempts and 46 of those yards, so the Steelers have allowed 77 total QB rushing yards in their other 11 games.

Jalen Hurts (PHI) Under 25.5 Pass Attempts (-125)

Hurts has not been a volume passer this season by any means. He’s gone over this number one time since the end of September. He had 28 pass attempts in the 26-18 win over Washington. The Eagles have been pretty methodical on offense, except for the Saquon Barkley explosive runs.

This week, the spread on the game would suggest the game state is such that we likely don’t need to see Hurts air it out. Coincidentally, he had 30+ pass attempts in every September game and the Eagles lost two of those. Most of their wins have been lopsided since, just as this one projects to be. I think Barkley props are a little bit high this week, as we could see more Kenneth Gainwell with Barkley getting a lighter workload, given that the Steelers are on deck and the Ravens were last week’s opponent.

Nevertheless, I don’t know that we see Hurts going to the air a ton in this game, unless Nick Sirianni and Kellen Moore think he needs the reps.

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