NFL Player Props Week 15:

The cold winds of winter are starting to pick up a little bit, as we have several games with some noteworthy breezes, some rain, or a combination of both. Keep the weather in mind as you handicap the player props market for Week 15. Keep it in mind all the time, but especially now, as we’re into mid-December with about a month left of the regular season.

As usual, keep game state and injuries at the front of your mind as well, as there are a lot of battered, banged-up, and bruised players this late in the grueling season.

 

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Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.

Here are some NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 15

Kyler Murray (ARI) Over 222.5 Passing Yards (-115)

I was surprised to not really see this line adjusted all that much from Murray’s season-long number and especially in light of what he’s done recently. Murray has averaged 220.2 passing yards per game this season. That’s not a great barometer to be using, as teams adapt and evolve as the season progresses and will also tailor the offense to a specific matchup. But, I do think it is something of a shortcut for oddsmakers at times.

Murray has had 266, 285, 260, and 259 in his last four starts for the Cardinals, easily surpassing this number. He’s also been throwing more since the bye week, posting 37, 45, and 38 pass attempts. Now, the Cardinals trailed in all three of those games and are unlikely to do so here against the Patriots.

I do think, though, that the key in the mind of OC Drew Petzing will be to throw the ball. The Patriots are 31st in Dropback EPA and 29th in Dropback Success Rate. Arizona doesn’t have much of a running game anyway, but this is the weaker part of the New England defense. The Patriots also rank 29th in Pressure% per Pro-Football-Reference, so don’t expect Murray to have to take it down and run much or take sacks. 

The Patriots have allowed the sixth-most Air Yards, so we could see some explosives here as well.

Jameis Winston (CLE) Longest Completion Under 35.5 Yards (-115)

The Browns have certainly opened up the offense with Winston at QB and have found more explosive plays in the passing game. Unfortunately, I don’t think the downfield threat will be there as much this weekend as it has been. This is a game where weather is a true factor, with the National Weather Service forecast calling for rain throughout the game and sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts into the 20s.

Cleveland can be a gnarly place to play when the weather is bad and it sure seems like it’s going to be a miserable day on the banks of Lake Erie. The Chiefs are right around league average in YAC, Air Yards, completions, and attempts, but I do think that the weather will prove to be a bit of a factor with how Winston wants to go down the field.

Also, the Chiefs rank fourth in Pressure%, even though they haven’t done a great job of creating sacks from that pressure. They are third in Hurry% and second in QB Knockdown% per Pro-Football-Reference.

D’Andre Swift (CHI) Under 14.5 Rush Attempts (-105)

Swift has hovered around this number in the last six games, posting 16, 16, 14, 13, 11, and 14 carries. Against the Vikings in the first meeting, he had 13 carries for just 30 yards. In fact, he’s only had 2.3, 3.6, and 2.7 yards per carry in his last three outings. The Bears are not finding much success on the ground, as they rank 18th in Rush EPA and 22nd in Rushing Success Rate.

But, the bigger element to me is that the Vikings are the best run defense in the league by EPA and it’s not particularly close. Per rbsdm.com, the Vikings have a Rush EPA of -0.220. The next closest is the Eagles at -0.171. Minnesota is still a top-five defense against the pass, but a mobile QB like Caleb Williams may cut down on the sacks and escape pressures.

Not to mention, the game state, and their recent play, is suggestive of the Bears trailing and having to abandon or cut down on the run in hopes of getting back into it.

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