Player props for Alexander Mattison, Marquise Brown, Anthony Richardson
Player prop bets really have become the go-to wagers for a lot of gamblers out there and there are a lot of opportunities because there are so many players to pick from. It is also hard for the sportsbooks to put up accurate numbers on every player because individual stats have a high degree of volatility game in and game out.
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As a result, we should be able to find some good values and some smart wagers in that market based on a variety of factors. Injuries, weather, and game stats are three of the ones that I key in on and those will be some of the reasons why these players are good bets for their specific player props this week.
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(odds as of September 29, 5:30 p.m. PT)
Alexander Mattison Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
A lot of people are down on the Vikings and Mattison, which is understandable, but this should be another good opportunity for him to put up decent numbers. Mattison had 93 yards on 20 carries last week and now faces the 31st-ranked defense in Rush EPA against. Carolina is also 28th in Rush Success Rate against.
We know that the Panthers offense has been very limited thus far, which should allow Minnesota to play from in front in this game and that would give Mattison a good chance at racking up some volume in the rushing attempts department. He’s been out there for at least 73% of the snaps in each of the first three games and it would seem that this is a game where the Vikings have a lead and Mattison can attempt to salt the game away.
Marquise Brown Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Cardinals are the biggest underdog on the board and trailing means throwing the football. Brown has a team-high 22 targets and has caught 14 balls for 143 yards. He’s averaged 47.7 yards per game, but Arizona has actually had a lead more often than expected. Brown has still gone over this number by a good bit in each of the two games and has 17 targets with 11 catches in that span.
Brown plays a lot, as he has been on the field for at least 94% of the offensive snaps over the last two games. He’ll be on the field a lot here and I would also anticipate that the Cardinals are going to be looking for him a lot in the second half while trying to play catch-up with an inferior opponent.
Anthony Richardson Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Richardson has apparently found his way out of concussion protocol and will get the nod for the Colts in this one. This is a pretty lofty prop for a guy who has gone into the medical tent twice in two games at the NFL level. He only has 40 and 35 yards through two games and I have to think that having his bell rung as much as he has is going to force the coaches into telling him to take a few extra seconds before pulling it down and running.
The 35 rushing yards did come in just 18 plays against the Texans, but it’s about survival at this point for Richardson and I can’t imagine that he’ll be looking to tuck and take off with his first instinct. Also, despite having Aaron Donald, the Rams have only recorded five sacks this season and have a low Pressure% of 19.8% that ranks near the bottom 10 in the NFL, so Richardson should be able to go through his progressions and get rid of the football.
