Player props for Baker Mayfield, Stefon Diggs, Geno Smith
Six teams are on byes here in Week 7, which means that there are fewer players available in the prop betting markets. There are still plenty of options, but you might have to do a little more digging on the games and players that are of interest. This is also one of those weeks where some of the sides and totals don’t look as enticing or exciting, so defaulting to the player props and other game props might be the course of action.
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Weather is a factor for four games on the Atlantic coast, with especially bad weather forecasted in New England for the Bills/Patriots game. Don’t forget to check those forecasts, not only to check for where weather conditions might help players, but also where the conditions may hurt them or alter the game-plan.
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(odds as of October 20, 5:00 a.m. PT)
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 TD Passes (+165)
We start with a plus-money price on Baker and the Bucs to have a little fun through the air. Tampa Bay should come into this one with a plan to throw the ball a lot. The Falcons rank first in Rush EPA on defense and 11th in Rush Success Rate against. They do rank seventh in Dropback Success Rate, but 24th in Dropback EPA. Atlanta has generated a lot of pressure with the third-highest Pressure% in the league, but they’ve only recorded 10 sacks.
The Falcons rank 18th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt against and have allowed 10 TD passes on the season. With Tampa Bay’s stout rush defense, I’m not sure that the Falcons will have much success playing keep-away, which will give the Bucs offense the chance to put some points on the board.
Stefon Diggs Under 83.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
This is definitely a weather-related play, as the Bills and Patriots will have sustained winds over 20 mph and gusts up into the 30s for Sunday’s game. Wind definitely alters the game-plan and the Bills probably won’t be taking many deep shots. Diggs could definitely get there if he breaks some underneath routes, but the Patriots will be able to have the safeties closer to the line and that should limit some of the big plays.
The weather is definitely factored into the line, as Diggs has had at least 100 yards in five of six games this season, but the Bills should also have a lead here and be able to rely on that to keep the clock moving in this one. Diggs has had some huge games, but he’s also had double-digit targets in four games. I don’t think we see that here.
Geno Smith Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
The Seahawks and Cardinals square off in an NFC West showdown here on what will be a pretty typical Seattle day with some drizzle and a lot of cloud cover, but not heavy rain and not much wind. Through six games, opposing QBs only have 22 rushing attempts against the Cardinals, mostly because the quarterbacks don’t really have to get out and run. They’re able to hang in the pocket and throw the ball against an Arizona defense with the lowest Pressure% in the league.
Geno hasn’t had more than four carries in a game this season, though he has gone over this number twice, including the last game against Cincinnati with four carries for 20 yards, but I don’t expect him to need to run much in this one. The Seahawks have a litany of weapons and should be able to move the ball without Smith’s legs.
