NFL Player Props Week 9:

The first Sunday in November features 13 NFL games, so we have a lot of player props to consider. Sometimes it takes a little bit of looking into the future to determine player availability, as it seems like everybody is hurt at this time of the year and has some sort of injury designation. But, I’m not the kind of person to wait until Sunday to lock in wagers, so that means reading between the lines or making some educated guesses.

Because player props are about matchup, opportunity, and weather for me. If I can isolate those factors, I can determine which Overs or Unders interest me for the week. And that’s what I’ve done and here are the ones that interest me.

 

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Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.

Here are some NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 9

Jared Goff (DET) Under 21.5 Completions (-125)

Goff and the Lions head outside for the first time this season. Their road games have been in Arizona, Dallas, and Minneapolis, so they haven’t had to worry about the elements. We all know that’s the knock on Goff, but I don’t think it’s necessarily priced into this line because he’s had five games under this total this season with 18 completions four times and 12 last week in the romp over the Titans.

For his career, Goff has a 68.02% completion rate in a dome and a 69.23% completion rate in retractable roof stadiums. His completion rate drops to 62.43% outside. To get to 22 with that completion rate, he’d need 35 pass attempts. He’s had more than 28 once this season.

Green Bay is in the top 10 in completion rate against and ranks seventh in Dropback EPA.

And the capper? The forecast calls for rain and wind on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

Javonte Williams (DEN) Over 3.5 Receptions (+125)

It is a big plus price here for Williams to go Over 3.5, but I think there’s a good chance. He had 21 touches out of his 42 snaps last week and had another target that fell incomplete. Denver’s run-pass distribution very strongly tilts towards the passing side, so Williams can get some grabs as an extension of the running game. He’s got 27 catches on 34 targets thus far, but 26 catches in his last seven games after one catch on two targets in Week 1.

He’s had at least three catches in six of the seven games since and this is a scenario where the Broncos project to be trailing, therefore they’ll likely be looking to pass at an even higher rate than normal. Williams is getting over 60% of the snap share at RB and backup RB Jaleel McLaughlin had five catches in Week 1 and only has eight catches since, so Williams is clearly the guy that they want in pass pro situations and as a receiver.

The Ravens are tied for the 10th-most running back receptions and are one of nine teams with at least 50 RB targets against.

Dustin Hopkins (CLE) Over 6.5 Kicking Points (-110)

The Browns offense showed a lot more life under Jameis Winston. Hopkins wound up with 11 points last week, as he kicked three field goals and a couple extra points. Cleveland had 11 drives. They scored on six of them and got into plus territory on seven of 10, excluding the one-play drive to end the first half.

The Chargers have a top-five red zone defense this season. I believe Winston will get Cleveland into the scoring areas, but that doesn’t mean that they’re going to rack up a bunch of touchdowns. We’re also seeing the total rise on this game, so the expectation is that we will see points and I think Hopkins could definitely be a benefactor.

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