NFL Playoff Betting Trends and Systems:
The end of the NFL regular season is always bittersweet, as we know the majority of our football season is over. Yet, we still have the highest stakes games to look forward to. Over the last eight years for VSiN, I have made it a routine to dedicate my NFL feature articles at this time of year to covering each and every round and game in-depth, focusing on past trends and systems that have developed, all for the purposes of cashing tickets. Before last year’s postseason, I decided to alter that strategy a bit, breaking these pieces into a more focused attack. I got a good response and had a great postseason of wagering, so I will continue that strategy. For this first piece, I will be unveiling some overall playoff betting trends and systems. I will still be offering the round-by-round angles, the weekly Analytics Reports, as well as my shared champions traits and Super Bowl stat props piece in separate upcoming releases.
Enjoy the information and be sure to stick with VSiN all the way through the Super Bowl for the best in actionable analytics for the NFL playoffs.
Following the Line/Total Moves
Over the last six seasons, bettors have struggled in the NFL playoffs, going 24-30 ATS (44.4%) when moving the opening line toward one team or the other. This is a definite shift from years prior, and it may coincide with the expansion of regulated markets, allowing more public action in this recent stretch. Last year, bettors were 3-4 ATS, with six games’ point spreads finishing exactly where they opened. If you’re unfamiliar with the situation I am describing here, this is when the line moves off its opening position towards either team. For instance, if the line opens as home team minus-3 and closes at home team minus-2, it is assumed that bettors are favoring the road team. For 2026, early wild card action as of Monday afternoon was favoring Carolina and Philadelphia. You will need to follow these all the way until kickoff of each game if you plan on utilizing the strategy.
Following bettors on totals in NFL playoff games has proven a bit more advantageous of late. Over that same period of the lat six playoff seasons, bettors are 34-29-1 (53.9%) when moving totals off their opening numbers. For this weekend, the totals have been fairly stable early, with one-point moves upward in the Buffalo-Jacksonville game and downward in the San Francisco-Philadelphia game. Watch closely for all six games, however, as the totals are often impacted by weather forecasts, and with all six games in outdoor environments, weather could prove key.
Line Range/Matchup Betting Systems
There have been a few interesting line range and matchup-specific systems that have developed in recent playoff seasons. Take a look at those, as well as the games that will be applying for each in the upcoming wild card round:
– Home underdogs in NFL playoff games are currently on a 9-4 SU and 11-2 ATS run heading into the 2026 postseason. This trend dates back to 2016 and includes a 3-0 mark last season.
Eight of the last nine of these such games have been in the wild card round, and those home dogs are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS. For 2026, we may have four of them on tap for wild card weekend.
– The most vulnerable home teams in recent NFL playoffs in terms of covering lines have been those priced in the -7 to -9.5 line range, as they are 32-11 SU but just 14-28-1 ATS (33.3%) since 2011.
There seems to be a motivation for these sizeable underdogs to earn respect in their playoff games. These games wind up being much more competitive than the experts project. In 2025, five qualifiers went 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS. As of Tuesday, 1/6, none of our favorites were in this range.
– Double-digit home favorites have been nearly automatic both in terms of winning and covering point spreads in recent playoff seasons, going 16-1 SU and 14-3 ATS (82.4%). These games have also gone 11-5-1 Over the total with the host team putting up 33.5 PPG.
These teams were dominant in the regular season and earned the respect of being a double-digit playoff favorite. In most cases, they simply overwhelm the lesser opponent. We didn’t have even one double-digit home favorite last playoff season.
– In the last 28 NFL playoff games matching divisional opponents, home teams have gone 16-12 SU but just 11-17 ATS (39.3%). This trend dates back to 2003.
Familiarity seems to make winning comfortably at home a rarity in playoff football. These are third-time-around matchups, and historically, this gives road teams a better chance to compete and win. Note that for the 2026 wild card round, Chicago hosts Green Bay in a battle of NFC North rivals.
– There have been 34 NFL playoff games since 2003 in which the road team won more games in the regular season. These visitors are just 14-20 SU and 11-22-1 ATS (33.3%).
It would seem that home-field advantage is heightened in the postseason. In many cases, these hosts also draw motivation from being underdogs. It’s not always the “better” team that wins, particularly early in the postseason. In 2025, there were four such games, and hosts swept them, both SU and ATS. For 2026, the wild card round finds Carolina, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh as host teams that have won fewer regular-season games than their opponents.
– Home teams that won 1 or 2 games more in the regular season than their visiting opponent but are favored by 3-points or fewer (or are underdogs) have been very vulnerable, going 13-20 SU and 12-21 ATS (36.4%) in their last 33 playoff tries.
Oddsmakers are sort of setting the tone for these matchups, as they don’t entrust the home team enough to assign them as better than field goal favorites. Trust what they are telling you. The Packers-Bears and Bills-Jaguars games both apply for this weekend.
Team Statistical Betting Systems
Naturally, certain statistical traits have defined playoff success for teams in recent years. I have picked out 11 of my favorite such systems below, focusing on stats teams accumulated in the regular season. I have also noted the teams qualifying for the various angles as well:
– Home teams scoring less than 22.5 PPG have actually fared well in the NFL playoffs recently, going 16-5 SU and 15-5-1 ATS (75%) since 2009.
System matches for 2026: Carolina, Philadelphia
– Road teams scoring less than 22.5 PPG have struggled terribly in the NFL playoffs, going 8-27 SU and 11-24 ATS (31.4%) since 2009.
System matches for 2026: FADE LA Chargers
– Home teams gaining less than 6.5 yards per pass attempt have found the playoffs tough, as they are just 21-26 SU and 15-30-2 ATS (33.3%) since 2002.
System matches for 2026: Carolina, Denver (in any home game)
– Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 30-36 SU but 41-23-2 ATS (64.1%) since 2004.
System matches for 2026: San Francisco, Green Bay, LA Rams, Buffalo, New England (if playing at Denver)
– Home teams allowing more than 7.0 yards per pass attempt have been quite unreliable for bettors in the postseason, going 12-11 SU but 7-15-1 ATS (31.8%) since 2012.
System matches for 2026: FADE Chicago
– Home teams allowing 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt have been solid bets in the playoffs, going 22-7 SU and 18-11 ATS (62.1%) since 2002.
System matches for 2026: Denver, Seattle
– Road teams allowing 5.9 or fewer yards per pass attempt have also been solid bets in the playoffs, going 25-26 SU but 32-18-1 ATS (64%) since 2002.
System matches for 2026: Buffalo, Houston, Philadelphia (in any road game)
– Road teams that avoid turnovers (<=1.0 giveaways per game) have surprisingly not fared well in the playoffs of late, going 4-23 SU and 9-18 ATS (33.3%) since 2004.
System matches for 2026: FADE Houston, Green Bay, LA Rams, – as well as Chicago, Philadelphia, and New England in any latter round road games
– Road teams that force a lot of turnovers (>=1.8 takeaways per game) have been consistently strong betting options in the playoffs for many years, going 50-34-2 ATS (59.5%) since 2002. However, these teams did go 0-4 SU and ATS in road playoff games last year.
System matches for 2026: Chicago or Jacksonville in any latter round road game
– Home teams scoring 30+ points per game but not installed as double-digit favorites have not been good betting options in the postseason, going 22-15 SU but 15-22 ATS (40.5%) since 2004.
System matches for 2026: FADE LA Rams as non-double-digit home favorites in latter round(s)
– Road teams outscoring their home opponent offensively by 5.0+ PPG have really struggled in the NFL playoffs of late, 3-13 SU and 4-11-1 ATS (26.7%) since 2004. This lost again in the AFC title game last year with Buffalo.
System matches for 2026: FADE LA Rams
First-Time Playoff Quarterbacks
From my annual quarterback report, I have found that there is a definitive playoff angle regarding quarterback inexperience:
– Quarterbacks starting their first playoff game in the NFL have gone just 13-25 SU and 15-23 ATS (39.5%) since 2014, and 28-49 ATS (36.4%) since 2003
There have been an inordinate number of first-time playoff starters in the last three NFL seasons, 14 in fact, including two games in which first-timers squared off against one another. Perhaps because of the high volume, they were more successful than usual, going 6-8 SU but 8-6 ATS. Consider this as you handicap the chances for first-time playoff quarterbacks like Bryce Young (Carolina), Caleb Williams (Chicago), and Drake Maye (New England). The first two are home underdogs in their respective games. As such, if you consider a first-time playoff QB in a certain line range:
– Quarterbacks starting their first playoff game in the NFL and playing as an underdog are 10-27 SU and 14-22-1 ATS (38.9%) since 2006.
Similarly, when these first-timers are matched against an experienced quarterback…
– Quarterbacks in their first playoff game are just 21-46 SU and 23-43-1 ATS (34.8%) since 2004 when matched up against an opposing QB NOT in their first playoff game.
The biggest difference where this experience factor comes into play is in games with point spreads in the +3 to -3 range, as these first-time QBs are just 8-22 SU and 7-22-1 ATS (24.1%) in those games. This trend figures to apply to the Green Bay-Chicago game.
First-Time Head Coaches
– Regarding coaches, first-time playoff coaches have been wildly more successful in recent years than quarterbacks, and are currently on a 10-6 SU and ATS (62.5%) run over the last seven seasons when not matched up against another rookie head coach.
There were no first-time playoff head coaches last year. For 2026, we have inexperienced playoff coaches in Carolina (Dave Canales), Chicago (Ben Johnson), and Jacksonville (Liam Coen). Note that the Carolina and Chicago situations have both rookie quarterbacks AND head coaches, a situation last seen with Houston in 2023. The Texans won their wild card game before being bounced in the divisional round.
Playoff Drought Systems
There are a few different systems to consider based on how recently teams were in the playoffs. Take a look.
· Teams playing in their first playoff game in at least two seasons against a repeat playoff team from the prior season are just 14-31 SU and 17-28 ATS (37.8%) over the last 13 seasons and 29-49-1 ATS (37.2%) since 2004. In 2025, the teams that weren’t in the playoffs the prior year went 1-3 SU and ATS versus returning postseason teams. For ’26, the playoff teams that weren’t in last year are: Carolina, Chicago, Jacksonville, San Francisco, and New England. The Panthers’ drought has been the longest since the 2017 season.
· On the road, these “drought” teams are an ugly 10-33 SU and 13-29-1 ATS (33.3%) since 2007, ALL WILDCARD GAMES. At home, the teams are 19-16 SU and 18-17 ATS. For 2026, only one of the drought teams (San Francisco) is on the road.
· In the last 22 wild card games matching BOTH teams that WEREN’T in the playoffs prior year, HOME TEAMS are 7-15 SU and 5-17 ATS (22.7%) since 2006. This powerful system will not be in play for a second season in a row, unfortunately.
Rematch Playoff Systems
I have found that analyzing earlier-season games between teams leads to some successful playoff rematch systems. Consider these as you handicap all of the postseason games this season:
– Teams that lost the prior same-season game versus an opponent are on a 10-9 SU and 8-11 ATS (42.1%) slide in the playoffs when hosting that same opponent. However, they were 4-0 SU and ATS in 2024 and 2025, so perhaps we are witnessing a shift in this trend.
This system won’t apply in the wild card weekend. Perhaps it could in later rounds.
– Teams that lost the prior same-season game versus an opponent by 21 points or more are just 1-14 SU and 5-10 ATS in the playoffs since 2012, including 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS at home.
The thought here is that a blowout loss of that nature is hard to overcome in the next meeting. There are no games that apply yet, but in 2023, the Chargers last qualified on this and lost at Jacksonville.
– Teams that lost the prior same-season game versus an opponent and were then favored in the playoff contest are just 9-11 SU and 7-13 ATS (35%) since 2017.
The Rams qualify for this angle by being favored at Carolina. The Packers do as well, assuming they remain favored to beat Chicago.
Summary
Hopefully, separating the focus of these playoff articles helps you take in some of the more important angles I have uncovered. The playoffs are a different animal in terms of handicapping, but studying the past teams, trends and systems that have been successful in recent years can certainly help point you in the right direction. Watch for more from me in the coming weeks regarding the NFL postseason, notably round-by-round trends, futures articles, and, of course, my best bets for each ensuing weekend as we drive towards Super Bowl 60 in San Francisco next month. Good luck.
