NFL Divisional Round first touchdown predictions
In the words of Frank from the movie Old School, “WE’RE GOING STREAKING!” I managed to make it through the entire regular season cashing in on at least one First Touchdown ticket each week, and my streak lives on into the playoffs! David Montgomery came through for me as his Lions advanced to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. I was very close to hitting three bets, as two of my other picks (Nico Collins, Tyreek Hill) weren’t way off, they both scored the second touchdowns of the game, and the first for their teams. I had the right thinking, just got unlucky.
All season I’ve been tracking every first touchdown for every team and using that to narrow the field either based on which team is better at scoring first, or if there are certain players who get targeted more. The NFL Wild-Card Round games stayed true to the system, with the better FTD (first touchdown) team scoring first in four of the six games, one game featured identical records, and one game bucked the trend. Speaking of…
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It’s the WHO!? Spotlight – Playoff Edition: We almost made it the entire Wild Card Weekend with nothing but people we know very well, and then, in the final game, Buccaneers WR David Moore showed up, catching a pass over the middle and taking it 44 yards to the house in their win over the Eagles. Moore was +4500 at DraftKings, that’s even longer odds than “no touchdown” which hit at +4000 in the previous Bucs game. Only 0.1% of the bets were on him at DK. Those had to have been shot in the dark picks. Not only was Tampa Bay the worst FTD team alive in the playoffs, Moore had just five receptions and one touchdown entering the game. For a team with studs like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin who both had thousand-yard seasons, I never would have thrown a dart on a guy like Moore. Let’s hope we have no randoms in the next round.
Here are all of the Divisional Round matchups, along with their FTD success rates, and my picks for each:
Texans (44.4%) at Ravens (82.4%) – Saturday, 4:30 PM ET
Last week, I had picks on both teams for most of the matchups, but not here. Baltimore is the #1 FTD team this season, scoring the first touchdown in all but three games so far. I have to stick to my betting system. I’ll go with Isaiah Likely, who has the Ravens TFTD (team-first touchdown) in three of their last five games. I’ll also be on Gus Edwards, who leads the team with four FTDs, all were game-firsts. If you feel compelled to pick a Texan, I’d be looking at Nico Collins. He’s Houston’s most successful player here, with five TFTDs, and has been their first scorer in back-to-back games now.
Packers (66.7%) at 49ers (76.5%) – Saturday, 8:15 PM ET
Green Bay is the hottest FTD team right now, scoring first in nine straight games, good for the longest streak of any team all season. That said, I will have bets on both teams as Christian McCaffrey is just too good at scoring to forget about. He will no doubt be the shortest shot, but with seven team-firsts and four game-firsts, I don’t want to miss out. For the Packers, it’s a little trickier as they’ve scored their first touchdown with nine different players this season. I’m going to go with the hot hands of Aaron Jones who had three scores last week against the Cowboys, including the game’s first TD. And I also like Romeo Doubs. He went berserk last week, with his first career 100-yard game and added a score. He and Jayden Reed lead the Packers in TFTDs, but I’m staying away from Reed this week as his stats in the Dallas game scare me. He had zero receptions on three targets. Uncharacteristic for him, but I don’t think Jordan Love will be that anxious to throw it his way.
Buccaneers (33.3%) at Lions (61.1%) – Sunday, 3 PM ET
Don’t let the Bucs blowout win over the Eagles fool you, they have not been good at scoring the first touchdown, doing so just six times all season. I love the Lions running backs and Sam LaPorta in this one. David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and LaPorta account for every Lions TFTD dating back to Week 7. That’s 12 straight games. Despite Amon-Ra St. Brown’s productivity, he has not been a red zone threat for them early in games. I’ll have tickets on all three and hope the longest shot cashes.
Chiefs (72.2%) at Bills (50.0%) – Sunday, 6:30 PM ET
I’ll be on Kansas City here as they are one of the best FTD teams in the NFL and Buffalo has been mediocre and inconsistent with the players they target. The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in the NFL here, scoring the first touchdown in five straight games. I’ll be on Isiah Pacheco, who leads the team with six TFTDs, four of which were game-firsts, and Rashee Rice, who has four TFTDs and three game-firsts. Nobody else on the team has more than one FTD. Both players scored last week against the Dolphins in the freezing cold, so the Buffalo weather doesn’t concern me in the least bit. And don’t forget, Travis Kelce has ZERO first touchdowns this year, stay away! Jinx incoming, I’m sure.
That’s it for this week, follow me on X (@billzinmepocket) to see my official plays ahead of the games!
For more on this week’s games, check out the NFL Betting Splits, NFL Odds, and the Vegas NFL Odds.
