Wild Card Weekend:

The stage is set for Wild Card Weekend, as the playoff pairings have been decided and we know the schedule for the first round of the NFL Playoffs. We had a lot of drama during Week 18, even though a lot of teams were sending out watered-down versions of their rosters and some games didn’t matter at all. The ones that mattered provided a lot of intrigue, but now the focus is on the 12 teams in action this weekend and the two that have the byes.

Here is the Wild Card Weekend NFL Odds Report:

Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 44.5) at Houston Texans

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

 

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We have a couple of road favorites in the Wild Card Round and the Chargers are one of them against the AFC South champion Texans. Despite finishing a game better in the standings, LAC has to go to the Lone Star State because they are a wild card team and the Texans are not. It is a far less egregious example than what we have in the NFC, where a 14-win team is playing on the road, but I digress.

In any event, the Texans are pretty clearly the weakest of the division champs and the 2.5 that this was at DraftKings moved up to -3 as the rest of the market posted numbers. It may be an apples and oranges comparison, but the Texans were disrespected last season in this spot as a 2.5-point dog against a Browns bunch with a better record on Wild Card Weekend. They won 45-14.

These two teams did not play each other in the regular season.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5, 46.5)

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

The third installment for this season of the Steelers/Ravens rivalry is a playoff game, as the AFC North champs lay over a touchdown. These teams split during the regular season, but the 18-16 Pittsburgh win came in a game where they were outgained by two full yards per play. The second game wasn’t as lopsided in the per-play department, as the Ravens were +1.5, but the score was much closer to what you would expect with such a box score discrepancy. Baltimore won 34-17 as a touchdown favorite and we’ve clearly seen an adjustment here.

DraftKings opened 8.5 before moving to 9.5 to mirror the rest of the market, but they did have the high mark on the total at 46.5 as of Sunday night. The total was 44 for the last game, which came through early in the first quarter on a Marlon Humphrey pick-six. 

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-9, 47.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The playoffs begin in Western New York, where the Bills host the Broncos. Denver took advantage of a skeleton crew for the Chiefs to leave no doubt in locking up the No. 7 seed. The Bills let Josh Allen hand the ball off once before losing to the Patriots with a fair number of their better offensive players on the field for a good chunk of the game. 

But, the Bills had absolutely nothing to prove and the NFL MVP will be back in full swing here, as the Broncos play their first playoff game since the 2015 season. They did win the Super Bowl that year, but it will take a massive effort to upset the Bills, who are as low as -8.5 in the market.

These two teams did not play each other in the regular season.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 46.5)

Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET

The Packers stayed on the No. 7 line and have a date with the Eagles in the first round. Green Bay lost as a big favorite to the Bears, but it wouldn’t have mattered anyway because the Commanders narrowly outlasted the Cowboys to stay at No. 6. Jordan Love left Green Bay’s loss with an elbow injury, but seems no worse for the wear based on this line. Christian Watson will be out, but the Packers have played without him enough for it to not be a huge thing.

The Eagles sat Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley in their win over the Giants, meaning we haven’t seen Hurts since he suffered a concussion in Week 16. He was only 1-of-4 for 11 yards in that contest against the Commanders, so he’ll be shaking off a good bit of rust and it will be interesting to see how bettors handle that throughout the week. Philly was -3.5 at open, but bounced out to -4.5 before the dust settled on Sunday night.

The Packers and Eagles did face off in Week 1 down in Brazil, where the Eagles were a 1.5-point favorite in a neutral setting, but that data point means very little now.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 50.5)

Sunday, 8 p.m. ET

It was far from pretty for the Buccaneers against the Saints, but they got two jobs done. They won the NFC South and got Mike Evans all of his incentives. The prize is a home game against the Commanders, who beat the Cowboys on a last-second touchdown to head into the playoffs with a 12-5 record, two games better than division winners Tampa Bay and Los Angeles. But, because they didn’t win the division, they find themselves traveling on Wild Card Weekend.

Like the Packers and Eagles, these two teams played all the way back in Week 1. The Bucs won 37-20 in the first NFL start for Jayden Daniels. A lot has changed since then, as Daniels has really morphed into a solid QB as the year has gone along and was on a really special trajectory before a rib injury took away a bit of his explosiveness about midway through the campaign.


Daniels left with leg discomfort against the Cowboys and he’s been hit a lot lately. He was sacked four times by Dallas, five times by the Falcons last week, and eight times by the Saints back in Week 15. 

For what it’s worth – largely nothing – the Bucs were -4 back on September 8 when the teams first met.

Minnesota Vikings (-2, 47) at Los Angeles Rams

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

There were two huge losers in Week 18. The Patriots, who lost the No. 1 overall pick by beating the Bills, and the Rams, who sat everybody against the Seahawks, only to go from playing the Commanders to playing the 14-win Vikings. The Commanders are no picnic either, but it certainly does seem as though the Rams increased the degree of difficulty with their path to next round as home underdogs at SoFi Stadium.

That said, the Rams did beat the Vikings during the regular season with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field. However, let’s keep a whole shaker of salt in mind with that game, as a grain or two isn’t enough. The Vikings had to travel to LA on a short week to play on Thursday night. Minnesota was still -2.5 in that game with a total of 47. Not only that, but the Vikings were coming off of a devastating 31-29 loss to the Lions after taking the lead with about six minutes left in the fourth quarter.

The Vikings opened -2 with several close wins in the back half of the season and that ugly effort against the Lions.

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