NFL Post-Bye Week Trends and Systems:
Two weeks ago, I introduced the first of a two-part series analyzing trends and systems surrounding the bye week in the NFL. That piece dealt with the PRE-BYE WEEK data. In this follow-up piece, I will be dealing with the POST-BYE WEEK analysis.
This week presents the first opportunity to wager on teams coming out of their bye week. There were four teams off last week: Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh. You’ll want to look at the team trends for those four in time for this weekend’s games, and then hang on to the rest of this piece for future reference. We will be continuing to cover these trends as well as everything else we track in our NFL Analytics Reports on a weekly basis.
So far, our pre-bye week systems have been performing pretty well, particularly those affecting Minnesota last weekend, as the Vikings (-3.5) edged Cleveland in London. Why wouldn’t these systems perform reliably? For years, I have reasoned that the bye week is always one of the most impactful variables on each team’s schedule for the season. Essentially, the bye week breaks up the routine in the NFL, and professional athletes’ performances can vary greatly when there are breaks in routine. These variances naturally offer up great wagering opportunities. Where the bye is placed and how the teams react in and out of that off week can often make the difference of one or two wins.
Clearly, the three-week period involving a team’s bye week (in, off, out) is huge. Since the NFL introduced a 17-game regular season schedule prior to the 2021 season, bye weeks have generally been pushed back to later in the season, making them perhaps even more important. So, let’s get to the data, first a group of league-wide systems you’ll want to digest, and second, team-by-team post-bye week trends, along with their scheduled post-bye week game for 2025.
A couple of other interesting things to note before we go further: First, teams coming out of bye weeks went just 15-17 SU and 12-20 ATS last year, the worst records since 2014. Second, Washington faces four teams this year that are coming out of their bye weeks. That is a league high, and theoretically, would have to be considered a disadvantage. For what it’s worth, teams coming off a bye week and facing Washington are 22-10 SU and 21-11-1 ATS in that scenario dating back to 1994. Random? Maybe, maybe not.
Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 114-47 SU and 94-63-4 ATS since 1999, 59.1%, +24.7 Units, 15.7% ROI, Grade 63)
2025 Plays: Potentially on – 10/26 Buffalo?, 11/2 Jacksonville?, 11/9 Cleveland?, 11/16 Kansas City?, 11/17 Dallas?, 12/14 Carolina?
Post-bye week road favorite subsystems:
– Vs. non-conference opponents. (Record: 34-16-3 ATS since 2000, 68 %, +16.4 Units, 32.8% ROI, Grade 65)
2025 Plays: Potentially on – 10/26 Buffalo?, 11/17 Dallas?
– Vs. divisional opponents. (Record: 32-18 ATS since 2002, 64%, +12.2 Units, 24.4% ROI, Grade 65)
2025 Plays: Potentially on –11/16 Kansas City?, 11/17 Dallas?, 12/14 Carolina?
Post-bye week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 25-21 SU and 29-15-2 ATS since 2015, 65.9%, +12.5 Units, 28.4% ROI, Grade 66)
2025 Plays: AGAINST –10/12 Green Bay, 10/13 Atlanta, 10/26 Baltimore, 11/9 Tampa Bay, 11/30 Miami, 12/14 San Francisco
Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 45-18 SU and 36-25-2 ATS since 1999, 59%, +8.5 Units, 13.9% ROI, Grade 59)
2025 Plays: Potentially Against – 10/13 Buffalo?, 10/19 Minnesota?, 11/2 Las Vegas?, 11/9 NY Jets?, 11/16 Tennessee?, 11/23 New Orleans?, 11/30 Miami?, 12/14 New England?, 12/14 NY Giants?
Post-bye week system #4:
Play Over the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 28-18-2 since 2010, 60.1%, +8.2 Units, 17.8% ROI, Grade 60)
2025 Potential Plays: OVER in – 10/12 PIT/CLE?, 11/9 NYJ/CLE, 11/16 TEN/HOU, 11/30 LAC/LVR?, 12/14 SF/TEN?, 12/14 CAR/NO?
Post-bye week system #5:
Play against double-digit favorites coming off their bye week. (Record: 18-8-1 ATS since ’14, 69.2%, +9.2 Units, 35.4% ROI, Grade 62)
2025 Plays: Potentially AGAINST –10/12 Green Bay, 10/26 Baltimore?, 10/26 Buffalo?, 11/2 Detroit?, 11/2 LA Rams?, 11/30 LA Chargers?, 12/14 San Francisco?
Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 24-13 SU and 26-11 ATS since 2019, 70.3%, +13.9 Units, 37.6% ROI, Grade 65)
2025 Plays: AGAINST 10/13 Chicago, 11/2 Jacksonville, 11/2 Seattle, 11/3 Arizona, 11/9 Cleveland, 11/10 Philadelphia, 11/23 Indianapolis
Post-bye week system #7:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 40-18-1 since 2021, 68.9%, +20.2 Units, 34.8% ROI, Grade 65)
2025 Plays: 10/13 CHI-WAS, 10/20 HOU-SEA, 10/26 BUF-CAR, 11/2 JAC-LVR, 11/2 SEA-WAS, 11/3 ARI-DAL, 11/9 CLE-NYJ, 11/10 PHI-GB, 11/16 KC-DEN, 11/16 CIN-PIT, 11/17 DAL-LVR, 11/23 IND-KC, 11/30 DEN-WAS, 12/14 CAR-NO
Post-bye week system #8:
Play against teams coming off their bye week after a loss to a divisional opponent prior to the bye. (Record: 25-19 SU and 28-13-3 ATS since 2008, 68.3%, +13.7 Units, 33.4% ROI, Grade 62)
2025 Plays: TBD
Post-bye week system #9:
Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after losing in upset fashion before the bye. (Record: 33-16-1 Under since 1992, 67.3%, +15.5 Units, 31.6% ROI, Grade 62)
2025 Plays: TBD
Post-bye week system #10:
Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after yielding 35+ points before the bye. (Record: 23-11-1 Under since 2014, 67.6%, +10.9 Units, 32.1% ROI, Grade 62)
2025 Plays: 10/12 GB-CIN, rest TBD
** Please note that the systems above and all the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
Arizona Cardinals Post-Bye Week Game: MON 11/3 at Dallas Cowboys
· Arizona has gone 10-4 ATS in its last 14 post-bye week road games
· The Cardinals are on skids of 1-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in post-bye week games, including 0-2 SU and ATS under head coach Jonathan Gannon
Atlanta Falcons Post-Bye Week Game: MON 10/13 vs. Buffalo Bills
· Atlanta is on a 15-6 SU and 14-7 ATS run in its last 21 post-bye week games but did lose last year
· The Falcons are 12-4-1 Under the total in their last 17 post-bye week home games
Baltimore Ravens Post-Bye Week Game: 10/26 vs. Chicago Bears
· Baltimore has gone Over the total in six of its last seven post-bye week games
· The Ravens are 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS in their previous nine post-bye week games vs. NFC foes
Buffalo Bills Post-Bye Week Game: 10/26 at Carolina Panthers
· Buffalo is on a 10-0 SU and 7-2-1 ATS run in post-bye week games, and is 21-10-2 ATS dating back to 1993
· The Bills are on a 5-0 Under the total run in post-bye week games, allowing just 14.4 PPG
Carolina Panthers Post-Bye Week Game: 12/14 at New Orleans Saints
· Carolina has won its last three post-bye week games ATS
· Ten of the last 11 Panthers’ post-bye week games went Over the total
Chicago Bears Post-Bye Week Game: MON 10/13 at Washington Commanders
· Chicago is 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in its last 11 post-bye week games, including a loss to Washington on a game-ending Hail Mary pass last year
· The Bears haven’t won a post-bye week road game since 2013, going 0-5 SU and ATS since
Cincinnati Bengals Post-Bye Week Game: 11/16 at Pittsburgh Steelers
· The Bengals are on a 3-0 SU and ATS surge in post-bye week road games, including a 37-30 win at Pittsburgh in 2022
· Cincinnati has gone 5-0 Over the total in its last five post-bye week divisional games, allowing 37.6 PPG
Cleveland Browns Post-Bye Week Game: 11/9 at New York Jets
· Cleveland is 5-9 SU and 2-11-1 ATS in its last 14 post-bye week games, including a 35-14 loss at New Orleans last year
· The Browns are on an 11-3 Over the total surge in post-bye week road games
Dallas Cowboys Post-Bye Week Game: MON 11/17 at Las Vegas Raiders
· Dallas is on a 13-7 SU and 14-6 ATS run in post-bye week games
· The Cowboys are 17-3 Over the total in post-bye week games since 2005
Denver Broncos Post-Bye Week Game: 11/30 at Washington Commanders
· Denver has gone 19-7 SU and 20-6 ATS in post-bye week games since 2000
· The Broncos are on a 12-4-1 Under the total surge in post-bye week games
Detroit Lions Post-Bye Week Game: 11/2 vs. Minnesota Vikings
· Detroit is 9-3-1 SU and 11-2 ATS in post-bye week games since 2012
· The Lions are on a 3-0 ATS and 3-0 Under the total streak in post-bye week divisional games
Green Bay Packers Post-Bye Week Game: 10/12 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
· Green Bay is 15-4 Under the total in the last 19 post-bye week games
· The Packers are on a 14-1 SU and 10-4-1 ATS post-bye week run when favored by 3 points or more
Houston Texans Post-Bye Week Game: MON 10/20 at Seattle Seahawks
· Houston has gone 14-7 Under the total in its last 21 post-bye week games
· The Texans are just 1-5 ATS in their last six post-bye week road games
Indianapolis Colts Post-Bye Week Game: 11/23 at Kansas City Chiefs
· Indianapolis has gone 15-5 SU and 14-5-1 ATS in its last 20 post-bye week games overall, including 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS L6
· The Colts are 5-1-1 Over the total in the last seven post-bye week games, total point production 54.3 PPG
Jacksonville Jaguars Post-Bye Week Game: 11/2 at Las Vegas Raiders
· Jacksonville is on a 9-3-1 ATS post-bye week run vs. AFC foes
· The Jaguars are just 1-6 SU and 3-3-1 ATS in their last seven post-bye week games
Kansas City Chiefs Post-Bye Week Game: 11/16 at Denver Broncos
· Kansas City is 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS in its last 15 post-bye week games versus divisional foes
· The Chiefs are 9-3-1 Under the total in their last 12 post-bye week road games
Los Angeles Chargers Post-Bye Week Game: 11/30 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
· The Chargers have gone 2-6 ATS in their last eight post-bye week home contests
· The Chargers are on a 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS skid in their last 12 post-bye week divisional games but did win last year
Los Angeles Rams Post-Bye Week Game: 11/2 vs. New Orleans Saints
· The Rams are on a 0-4 ATS post-bye week skid after going 10-3-1 ATS in the prior 14
· The Rams are on a 5-1 Under the total run in post-bye week home games
Las Vegas Raiders Post-Bye Week Game: 11/2 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
· The Raiders are on a 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS skid in post-bye week games overall
· The Raiders are on a 5-1 Over the total surge in post-bye week home games
Miami Dolphins Post-Bye Week Game: 11/30 vs. New Orleans Saints
· Miami is on a 6-2 ATS run in post-bye week games vs. NFC foes since 2003
· The Dolphins are 7-1 Under the total in their last eight post-bye week games
Minnesota Vikings Post-Bye Week Game: 10/19 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
· For as good as the Vikings were in pre-bye week games, they are nearly as bad out of the bye, 5-10 SU and 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15
· The Vikings are on a run of 8-3 Over the total in post-bye week games at home
New England Patriots Post-Bye Week Game: 12/14 vs. Buffalo Bills
· The Patriots are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS in the last eight post-bye week games versus divisional rivals
· New England is on a 17-9 Under the total run in post-bye week games, allowing just 16.4 PPG
New Orleans Saints Post-Bye Week Game: 11/23 vs. Atlanta Falcons
· New Orleans has lost six straight post-bye week games ATS
· The Saints are 6-1 Under the total in their last seven post-bye week games
New York Giants Post-Bye Week Game: 12/14 vs. Washington Commanders
· The Giants have a 9-2 Under the total record in their last 11 post-bye week divisional games
· The Giants have gone Under the total in five of their last six post-bye week games
New York Jets Post-Bye Week Game: 11/9 vs. Cleveland Browns
· Like many other situations of late, the Jets have struggled in post-bye week games, 3-13 SU and 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16
· The Jets are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven post-bye week home games
Philadelphia Eagles Post-Bye Week Game: MON 11/10 at Green Bay Packers
· Philadelphia is just 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine post-bye week games versus NFC foes
· Philadelphia is 8-2 Under the total in the last 10 post-bye week road games
Pittsburgh Steelers Post-Bye Week Game: 10/12 vs. Cleveland Browns
· The Steelers are on an eight-game post-bye week game-winning streak, as well as a five-game ATS winning streak in such games
· Pittsburgh is 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS in its last 13 post-bye week games when favored
San Francisco 49ers Post-Bye Week Game: 12/14 vs. Tennessee Titans
· San Francisco is on 7-1 Under the total run in post-bye week games
· The 49ers are 5-15-1 ATS in post-bye week games dating back to 2004, including 1-3 ATS in the last four
Seattle Seahawks Post-Bye Week Game: 11/2 at Washington Commanders
· In post-bye week games vs. non-divisional NFC foes, Seattle is on a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS surge
· The Seahawks have gone Under the total in seven of the last eight post-bye week road games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Post-Bye Week Game: 11/9 vs. New England Patriots
· Tampa Bay has gone 5-0 Under the total in its last five post-bye week games, but is on 5-1 Over run vs. AFC foes in such games
· The Buccaneers are on a 6-0 Under the total streak as post-bye week favorites
Tennessee Titans Post-Bye Week Game: 11/16 vs. Houston Texans
· Prior to last year’s 20-17 home loss to the Colts, the Titans had won eight straight post-bye week games while going 7-0-1 ATS
· Tennessee has won its last three games SU and ATS as a post-bye week underdog, scoring 32.7 PPG
Washington Commanders Post-Bye Week Game: 11/30 vs. Denver Broncos
· Washington is just 5-12 SU and 3-14 ATS in its last 17 post-bye week games· The Redskins are on a 0-5 ATS losing streak in post-bye week games as favorites
