NFL Post-Bye Week Systems and Team Trends for 2026:
Two weeks ago, I introduced the first of a two-part series analyzing trends and systems around the NFL bye week. That piece dealt with the pre-bye week data. In this follow-up piece, I’ll cover the post-bye week analysis.
This week offers the first opportunity to wager on teams coming off their bye week. Two teams were off last week: Carolina and Kansas City. You’ll want to look at the team trends for those four in time for this weekend’s games, and then hang on to the rest of this piece for future reference. We will be continuing to cover these trends as well as everything else we track in our NFL Analytics Reports on a weekly basis.
So far, our pre-bye week systems and trends have been performing reasonably well. And why wouldn’t these systems perform reliably? For years, I’ve reasoned that the bye week is always one of the most impactful variables on each team’s season schedule. Essentially, the bye week breaks up the NFL routine, and professional athletes’ performances can vary greatly when the routine is disrupted. These variances naturally offer up great wagering opportunities. Where the bye falls and how teams react in and out of that off week can often make the difference between one and two wins.
Clearly, the three-week period around a team’s bye week (in, off, out) matters. Since the NFL moved to a 17-game regular season prior to the 2021 season, bye weeks have generally been pushed later in the season, making them even more important. So, let’s get to the data: first, a group of league-wide systems you’ll want to digest, and second, team-by-team post-bye week trends, along with their scheduled post-bye week game for 2026.
A couple of other interesting things to note before we go further: First, teams coming out of bye weeks went 17-15 SU and ATS last year after a 12-20 ATS record the year prior. Second, the Chargers and Eagles each face four teams this year that are coming out of their bye weeks. That is the league high and, theoretically, a disadvantage. For the Chargers, already in a hole, it could be even worse, as teams facing them are on a crazy 13-3 SU and 14-2 ATS run in post-bye week matchups dating back to ’08. Random? Maybe, maybe not.
Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 119-50 SU and 97-68-4 ATS since 1999, 58.8%, +22.2 Units, 13.5% ROI, Grade 63)
2026 Plays: Potentially on – 11/29 New England?
Post-bye week road favorite subsystems:
– vs. non-conference opponents. (Record: 36-17-3 ATS since ’00, 67.9%, +17.3 Units, 32.6% ROI, Grade 65)
2026 Plays: Potentially on – TBD
– vs. divisional opponents. (Record: 32-20 ATS since 2002, 61.5%, +10 Units, 19.2% ROI, Grade 62)
2026 Plays: Potentially on –TBD
Post-bye week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 27-26 SU and 32-19-2 ATS since 2015, 62.7%, +11.1 Units, 21.7% ROI, Grade 63)
2026 Plays: AGAINST –10/22 Minnesota, 11/8 New Orleans, 11/8 San Francisco, 11/22 Philadelphia, 12/13 Baltimore, 12/20 Arizona
Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 50-20 SU and 38-30-2 ATS since 1999, 55.9%, +5 Units, 7.3% ROI, Grade 52)
2026 Plays: Potentially Against – 11/1 Washington?, 11/15 Tennessee?, 11/29 Cleveland?, 12/13 NY Jets?
Post-bye week system #4:
Play Over the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 30-20-2 since 2010, 60%, +8 Units, 16% ROI, Grade 58)
2025 Potential Plays: OVER in – 10/25 MIA/NYJ?, 11/8 HOU/LAC?, 11/8 NYG/PHI?
Post-bye week system #5:
Play against double-digit favorites coming off their bye week. (Record: 19-10-1 ATS since 2014, 65.5%, +8.1 Units, 27.9% ROI, Grade 60)
2026 Plays: Potentially AGAINST –10/18 Kansas City?, 11/25 LA Rams?, 11/29 New England?, 12/13 Baltimore?
Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 26-18 SU and 28-16 ATS since 2019, 63.6%, +10.4 Units, 23.6% ROI, Grade 59)
2026 Plays: AGAINST 10/18 Carolina, 11/8 Houston, 11/22 Tampa Bay, 11/25 Green Bay, 11/29 Atlanta, 11/29 New England, 12/20 Dallas
Post-bye week system #7:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 46-26-1 since ‘21, 63.9%, +17.4 Units, 24.2% ROI, Grade 60)
2026 Plays: 10/18 CAR/PHI, 10/25 CIN/BAL, 10/25 MIA/NYJ, 11/1 LAC/LAR, 11/8 HOU/LAC, 11/8 NYG/PHI, 11/15 PIT/CIN, 11/22 TB/DET, 11/25 GB/LAR, 11/29 ATL/MIN, 11/29 NE/LAC, 11/29 SEA/SF, 12/13 IND/PHI, 12/20 DAL/LAR
Post-bye week system #8:
Play against teams coming off their bye week after a loss to a divisional opponent prior to the bye. (Record: 26-19 SU and 28-14-3 ATS since 2008, 66.7%, +12.6 Units, 30% ROI, Grade 62)
2026 Potential Plays: TBD
Post-bye week system #9:
Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after losing in upset fashion before the bye. (Record: 34-19-1 Under since 1992, 64.1%, +13.2 Units, 24.9% ROI, Grade 60)
2026 Plays: TBD
Post-bye week system #10:
Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after yielding 35+ points before the bye. (Record: 24-15-1 Under since 2014, 61.5%, +10.9 Units, 19.2% ROI, Grade 56)
2026 Plays: TBD
** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
| Arizona Cardinals Post-Bye week game: 12/20 vs. NY JETS |
| – Arizona has gone 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS in its last seven post-bye week home games |
| – The Cardinals are on skids of 2-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in post-bye week games overall |
| Atlanta Falcons Post-Bye week game: 11/29 at MINNESOTA |
| – Atlanta is on a 16-6 SU and 15-7 ATS run in its L22 post-bye week games, including 8-1 ATS on the road |
| – The Falcons are on a 4-0 Under the total streak in post-bye week games |
| Baltimore Ravens Post-Bye week game: 12/13 vs. TAMPA BAY |
| – Baltimore has gone Over the total in seven of its last eight post-bye week games |
| – The Ravens are 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in their previous 10 post-bye week games vs. NFC foes |
| Buffalo Bills Post-Bye week game: 11/1 vs. BALTIMORE |
| – Buffalo is on an 11-0 SU and 8-2-1 ATS run in post-bye week games, and is 22-10-2 ATS dating back to 1993 |
| – The Bills are on a 4-0 Under the total run in post-bye week home games, allowing just 13.8 PPG |
| Carolina Panthers Post-Bye week game: 10/18 at PHILADELPHIA |
| – Carolina has gone Over the total in its last five post-bye week games vs. non-divisional NFC foes, allowing 31.2 PPG |
| – Ten of the last 12 Panthers’ post-bye week games went Over the total |
| Chicago Bears Post-Bye week game: 11/22 vs. NEW ORLEANS |
| – Chicago is 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 post-bye week games |
| – The Bears are 7-3 Over the total in their last 10 post-bye week games |
| Cincinnati Bengals Post-Bye week game: 10/25 at BALTIMORE |
| – The Bengals are on a 3-1 SU and ATS surge in post-bye week road games |
| – Cincinnati has gone 5-1 Over the total in its last five post-bye week divisional games, allowing 37 PPG |
| Cleveland Browns Post-Bye week game: 11/29 vs. LAS VEGAS |
| – Cleveland is 5-10 SU and 2-12-1 ATS in its last 14 post-bye week games, including a 27-20 loss to the Jets last year |
| – The Browns are on a 4-0-1 Over the total surge in post-bye week games |
| Dallas Cowboys Post-Bye week game: 12/20 at LA RAMS |
| – Dallas is on a 14-7 SU and 15-6 ATS run in post-bye week games |
| – The Cowboys are 18-3 Over the total in post-bye week games since 2005 |
| Denver Broncos Post-Bye week game: 11/22 vs. LAS VEGAS |
| – Denver has gone 20-7 SU and ATS in post-bye week games since 2000 |
| – The Broncos are on a 6-1 SU and ATS in post-bye week games versus divisional rivals |
| Detroit Lions Post-Bye week game: 10/25 vs. GREEN BAY |
| – Detroit is 9-4-1 SU and 11-3 ATS in post-bye week games since 2012 |
| – The Lions are on 7-2 Under the total in their last nine post-bye week home games |
| Green Bay Packers Post-Bye week game: WED 11/25 at LA RAMS |
| – Green Bay is 15-5 Under the total in their last 20 post-bye week games |
| – The Packers are on a 3-7-1 ATS post-bye week skid overall |
| Houston Texans Post-Bye week game: 11/8 at LA CHARGERS |
| – Houston has gone 5-2 ATS in its last seven post-bye week games vs. non-divisional AFC foes |
| – The Texans are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven post-bye week road games |
| Indianapolis Colts Post-Bye week game: 12/13 at PHILADELPHIA |
| – Indianapolis has gone 15-6 SU and 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 post-bye week games overall, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven |
| – The Colts are 6-1-1 Over the total in their last eight post-bye week games vs. NFC foes |
| Jacksonville Jaguars Post-Bye week game: 11/1 vs. INDIANAPOLIS |
| – Jacksonville has lost its last five post-bye week divisional games, going 2-2-1 ATS |
| – The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six post-bye week home games |
| Kansas City Chiefs Post-Bye week game: 10/18 vs. LA CHARGERS |
| – Kansas City is just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven post-bye week home games |
| – The Chiefs are 12-3-1 Under the total in their last 16 post-bye week games overall |
| Los Angeles Chargers Post-Bye week game: 11/1 at LA RAMS |
| – The Chargers have gone 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six post-bye week road contests |
| – The Chargers on a 3-0 Under the total streak in post-bye week games versus NFC foes |
| Los Angeles Rams Post-Bye week game: WED 11/25 vs. GREEN BAY |
| – The Rams are on an 8-3-1 ATS post-bye week surge against non-division NFC foes |
| – The Rams are on a 6-1 Under the total run in post-bye week home games, allowing 12.7 PPG in the Under games |
| Las Vegas Raiders Post-Bye week game: 12/13 vs. LA CHARGERS |
| – The Raiders are on a 1-8 SU and 2-6-1 ATS skid in post-bye week games overall |
| – The Raiders are on a 6-1 Over the total surge in post-bye week home games |
| Miami Dolphins Post-Bye week game: 10/25 at NY JETS |
| – Miami is on a 3-7 SU and 1-7-2 ATS skid in post-bye week games vs. divisional rivals |
| – The Dolphins are 8-1 Under the total in their last nine post-bye week games |
| Minnesota Vikings Post-Bye week game: 10/25 vs. INDIANAPOLIS |
| – For as good as the Vikings were in pre-bye week games, they are nearly as bad out of the bye, 5-11 SU and 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16 |
| – The Vikings are on a run of 9-3 Over the total in post-bye week games at home |
| New England Patriots Post-Bye week game: 11/29 at LA CHARGERS |
| – The Patriots are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six post-bye week games overall |
| – New England is on a 7-3 Under the total run in post-bye week road games |
| New Orleans Saints Post-Bye week game: 11/8 vs. CLEVELAND |
| – New Orleans has lost seven straight post-bye week games ATS |
| – The Saints are 7-1 Under the total in their last eight post-bye week games |
| New York Giants Post-Bye week game: 11/8 at PHILADELPHIA |
| – The Giants have a 9-3 Under the total record in their last 12 post-bye week divisional games |
| – The Giants are on skids of 3-8-1 ATS and 10-2 UNDER the total in post-bye week road games |
| New York Jets Post-Bye week game: 12/13 vs. DENVER |
| – Like many other situations of late, the Jets have struggled in post-bye week games, 4-13 SU and 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 |
| – The Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine post-bye week home underdog games |
| Philadelphia Eagles Post-Bye week game: 11/22 vs. PITTSBURGH |
| – Philadelphia is just 1-5-1 ATS in last seven post-bye week home games |
| – Philadelphia is 8-2 Under the total in last 10 post-bye week non-conference games |
| Pittsburgh Steelers Post-Bye week game: 11/15 at CINCINNATI |
| – The Steelers are on a nine-game post-bye week game winning streak, as well as a six-game ATS winning streak in such games |
| – Pittsburgh is 7-2 Under the total in its last nine post-bye week divisional games |
| San Francisco 49ers Post-Bye week game: 11/8 vs. LAS VEGAS |
| – San Francisco is on 7-2 Under the total run in post-bye week games, all under HC Kyle Shanahan |
| – The 49ers are 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS in their last seven post-bye week games after a 2-12-1 ATS skid prior |
| Seattle Seahawks Post-Bye week game: 11/29 at SAN FRANCISCO |
| – In post-bye week games vs. divisional foes, Seattle is on a 9-2 Over the total surge |
| – The Seahawks have won and covered both post-bye week games under head coach Mike Macdonald after a 7-18-1 ATS skid prior |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers Post-Bye week game: 11/22 at DETROIT |
| – Tampa Bay has 2-6 SU and ATS in last eight post-bye week games overall |
| – The Buccaneers are on a 4-0 Under the total streak vs. NFC foes in post-bye week games |
| Tennessee Titans Post-Bye week game: 11/15 vs. JACKSONVILLE |
| – The Titans are on an 8-1-1 ATS surge in post-bye week games |
| – Tennessee has gone Under the total in four straight post-bye week divisional games, allowing just 11.5 PPG |
| Washington Commanders Post-Bye week game: 11/1 vs. PHILADELPHIA |
| – Washington is just 5-13 SU and 4-14 ATS in its last 18 post-bye week games |
| – The Commanders are on a 1-6 SU and ATS skid in post-bye week divisional games, and 4-0-1 Under the total run in such games as well |
