The 2026 tennis season has moved into the Asian Swing, and we’ll be paying close attention to the ATP Masters 1000 in Shanghai and WTA 1000 in Wuhan. This is an interesting portion of the season, as nobody is thinking about Grand Slams. Everyone is simply jockeying for year-end positioning. The conditions are different, too. The courts and the humidity in China play differently than the North American hard courts, and that affects who can control rallies, who can hold serve, and who even has the physicality required to finish matches.
Fortunately for all of us, there’s no shortage of matches to break down as the week unfolds, and I’ll keep posting my tennis best bets daily. Because of the time difference, matches overnight in the US run across two calendar days. With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for Tuesday, October 13 and Wednesday, October 14. Also, keep an eye on the new VSiN Community and the VSiN Pro Picks page for other plays.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Marie Bouzkova vs. Maja Chwalinska
Han Shi vs. Leylah Fernandez
I absolutely love Bouzkova to beat Chwalinska in Wuhan. Since her run to the Roland Garros final, Chwalinska is 5-7 in the 12 matches she has played. She’s right back to looking like a borderline top-50 player, and Bouzkova is a brutal matchup for her. Chwalinska wants to win matches with smoke and mirrors, and she is always confident in her ability to out-last opponents. However, Bouzkova can grind with the best of them, she’s a better server than Chwalinska, and she has a little more power.
The issue with Bouzkova is that she’s a heavy favorite, and I’m not looking to lay the games — or the set — with the spread. So, I’m parlaying Bouzkova moneyline with Fernandez moneyline. Fernandez, who has always been a very good hard-court player, is taking on a 21-year-old Shi, who is coming off the win of her life. Shi beat Alexandra Eala last round. Now, she has to find a way to back that up, and that’s always extremely difficult. This is a prime let-down spot, and it’s one in which she’s facing a much better player than her.
PARLAY: Bouzkova ML & Fernandez ML (-103)
Casper Ruud vs. Felix Auger Aliassime
We haven’t seen peak Ruud since the clay-court season, but we’re getting a close look at it right now. Through two matches, Ruud has a TennisViz Performance Rating of 8.38 in Shanghai. And the reason that’s impressive is that his last win was a 6-4, 7-6 (3) victory over Learner Tien, who is very tough on hard courts. With Ruud playing some very good tennis at the moment, I like the idea of backing him as a pretty big underdog against Auger Aliassime. The Canadian is one of the best players in tennis, but his advanced numbers tell an interesting story. TennisViz doesn’t track Grand Slams, so some good results are missing for Auger-Aliassime. However, the Canadian hasn’t had a Performance Rating higher than Ruud’s Shanghai 8.38 since February. That’s a very long time.
The matchup between these two also happens to be super interesting. Both players have punishing forehands, but Ruud’s backhand is much more reliable than Auger Aliassime’s two-hander.
Realistically, if Ruud serves decently in this match, he’s going to look every bit as good as his opponent. That’s worth the stab at +134. And honestly, Ruud has always been a bit of an underrated server in very quick conditions. He knows how to take advantage in the slight bump he gets.
Bet: Ruud ML (+134)
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev is 10-5 against Tsitsipas in his career, but it was the Greek star that won when they met in Doha earlier in the year. Those conditions weren’t similar to the ones we’ll see in Shanghai, but it was big for Tsitsipas to get in the win column, snap a three-match losing streak to Medvedev, and pick up some belief in this head-to-head series. Now, Tsitsipas actually enters this match in slightly better form than Medvedev, making him intriguing on the set spread and moneyline.
Medvedev has played some much better tennis in recent weeks, looking more and more like a top-10 player in the world. However, this is a match in which Tsitsipas’ serve and forehand should give him the ability to end points a little quicker. He had everything going against Taylor Fritz, who is more similar to Medvedev than people realize. And I think he can find a way here.
The only thing to worry about with Tsitsipas is the backhand, as his one-hander is a major weakness and he’ll be up against one of the more consistent two-handers on tour. Perhaps that’ll be the difference between winning and losing, but I do see Tsitsipas getting at least a set no matter what.
Bet: Tsitsipas +1.5 Sets (-141 – 1.5 units) & Tsitsipas ML (+202 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
