NFL Pre-Bye Week Betting Systems:

We are almost a month into the 2024 NFL season, with Week 4 games coming up this weekend. What’s special about this set of games? Well, for one, it’s the first time that four particular teams will be playing their pre-bye week games, as NFL byes officially start next week, with Detroit, the LA Chargers, Philadelphia, and Tennessee being the first group to get the week off. Two teams will be playing their pre-bye week games on the road, including the Titans, who have a Monday night contest. As such, you’ll want to pay special attention to the systems (#5 & #6) below regarding MNF pre-bye games.

I’ve found that one of the most important scheduling situations involves the weeks before and after teams’ bye weeks. They are important because they affect routines, momentum, and player injury availability as well. Historically, some franchises and coaches have been very good in dealing with bye weeks, others not. Furthermore, there are teams that have seen their performance levels vary greatly when going into the bye week as opposed to coming out. As such, the various bye-week scenarios can make for great wagering opportunities.

 

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Since the league went to a 17-game schedule a few years back, it seems that the duration of weeks with teams having byes has spread out. In fact, for 2024, there will be teams with pre-bye week games on the first weekend of October, and there will be teams with pre-bye week games on the first week of December. Arguments abound about the merits of the point in time of the season in which each team gets their bye week. Some teams don’t want a bye when they are playing well. It can also be said that, theoretically, the further into a season, the more the bye would be appreciated by coaches and players. Keep all of this in mind as you analyze each team’s specific situation. 

In this week’s piece, I will be addressing the pre-bye week trends and systems. There will be a follow-up piece to this in two weeks, unveiling the post-bye week trends and systems. Because these bye weeks span out over the next two months and the trends will apply at various times throughout that period, I would recommend saving this piece for your NFL handicapping library, as well as the one in two weeks. However, again, for 2024, we will be repeating this information weekly, specifically the qualifying trends and systems for that week, in our popular NFL Analytic Reports. 

The NFL is a routine-laden league, and anything that can break that routine for a team can offer bettors opportunity. Whether it’s long stretches of road or home games, contests scheduled on days other than Sundays, night games versus Sunday afternoons, etc, these scheduling “landmines” can be used to find betting value if you understand the consequences of such events. However, if there is one scheduling situation that is most influential, it is the bye week. Each team gets one throughout their 18-week schedule, and where it is placed and how the teams react in and out of that bye week can often make the difference of one or two wins. That, of course, can affect impact whether or not a team makes the playoffs. Clearly, the three-week period involving a team’s bye week (in, off, out) is highly impactful.

This article will cover pre-bye week trends for all 32 teams. Again, note that those involving the Lions, Chargers, Eagles, and Titans will be in play for this week’s games. 

Before we go team-by-team, here are five league-wide pre-bye week systems that you’ll want to take advantage of over the next couple of months:

Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 53-21-1 ATS since ‘13, 71.6%, +29.9 Units, 40.4% ROI, Grade 73)
2024 Plays: 9/29 LA CHARGERS, 10/6 MIAMI, 11/3 SEATTLE, 11/3 GREEN BAY, 12/1 HOUSTON

Pre-bye week system #2
Play on favorites of 7 points or more heading into their bye week. (Record: 81-9 SU & 59-29-2 ATS since ’01, 67%, +27.1 Units, 30.8% ROI., Grade 72)
Potential 2024 Plays (check point spreads closer to games): 10/6 MIAMI, 10/7 KANSAS CITY, 10/27 SAN FRANCISCO, 10/28 PITTSBURGH, 11/17 ATLANTA, 11/17 NY JETS, 12/1 HOUSTON, 12/1 INDIANAPOLIS

Pre-bye week system #3
Play on home teams in their pre-nye week game when it comes Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 66-34-2 ATS since ’10, 66%, +28.6 Units, 28.6% ROI, Grade 70)
2024 Plays: 10/27 SAN FRANCISCO, 10/28 PITTSBURGH, 11/3 CLEVELAND, 11/3 GREEN BAY, 11/3 SEATTLE, 11/10 ARIZONA, 11/10 TAMPA BAY, 11/17 BUFFALO, 11/17 NEW ORLEANS, 11/17 NY JETS, 12/1 BALTIMORE, 12/1 NEW ENGLAND, 12/1 WASHINGTON, 12/2 DENVER

Pre-bye week system #4
Play on HOME UNDERDOGS heading into their BYE week. (Record: 32-17-2 ATS since ’15, 65.3%, +13.3 Units, 27.1% R.O.I., Grade 68)
Potential 2024 Plays (check point spreads closer to games): 9/29 LA CHARGERS, 10/6 LA RAMS, 10/13 DALLAS, 11/3 GREEN BAY, 11/10 ARIZONA, 11/10 TAMPA BAY, 11/17 BUFFALO, 12/1 BALTIMORE, 12/1 NEW ENGLAND, 12/2 DENVER 

Pre-bye week system #5
Play on any road team heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 25-18 SU and 28-13-2 ATS since 1996, 68.3%, +13.7 Units, 33.4% ROI, Grade 65)
2024 Plays: 9/30 TENNESSEE

Pre-bye week system #6
Play against any home team heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 21-22 SU and 27-16 ATS since 1996, 62.8%, +9.4 Units, 21.9% ROI, Grade 60)
2024 Plays: 9/30 AGAINST SEATTLE, 10/7 AGAINST KANSAS CITY, 10/28 AGAINST PITTSBURGH, 12/2 AGAINST CLEVELAND 

Pre-bye week system #7
Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 27-7-1 SU and 23-11-1 ATS since 2009, 67.6%, +10.9 Units, 32.1% ROI, Grade 65)
2024 Plays: 9/30 TENNESSEE

Pre-bye week system #8
Play against any teams heading into their bye week and playing as underdogs of more than 7 points (Record: 40-7 SU and 32-14-1 ATS since ’08, 69.6%, +16.6 Units, 36.1% ROI., Grade 70)
Potential 2024 Plays (check point spreads closer to games): 9/30 TENNESSEE, 11/3 LAS VEGAS, 11/10 CAROLINA, 11/17 CINCINNATI?, 11/17 JACKSONVILLE 

* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs. 

Arizona Cardinals Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/10 vs. New York Jets
· Arizona is on an 8-3 ATS surge in pre-bye week games
·  The Cardinals are on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS streak in pre-bye week games at home

Atlanta Falcons Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/17 at Denver Broncos
· Atlanta has gone 3-8-1 in its last 12 pre-bye week games overall
· The Falcons are on a 7-2 Under the total run in pre-bye week road games 

Baltimore Ravens Pre-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
· Baltimore is just 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 pre-bye week home games
· The Ravens are on 7-4 Under the total run in pre-bye week games 

Buffalo Bills Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/17 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
· Buffalo is on a run of 13-4 Over the total in pre-bye week games
· The Bills haven’t played a pre-bye week home game since 2013, and are on a 3-9 SU and ATS skid in that scenario

 Carolina Panthers Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/10 vs. New York Giants (in Munich)
· The Panthers are on a stretch of 8-3 ATS in pre-bye week games but lost LY
· Carolina has gone Over the total in eight of its last nine pre-bye week games, scoring 29.9 PPG and allowing 27.2 PPG 

Chicago Bears Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/13 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
· Chicago has been one of the league’s worst long-run teams in terms of pre-bye week performance, 8-17 SU and 10-15 ATS since 1999, however did win last year
· The Bears are on an 8-4 Over the total surge in pre-bye week games since 2012 

Cincinnati Bengals Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/17 at Los Angeles Chargers
· Cincinnati has gone 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five pre-bye week games on the road
· The Bengals are on a 7-2 Over the total surge in pre-bye week games vs. NFC foes 

Cleveland Browns Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
· Cleveland is on a 3-10 SU and ATS slide in pre-bye week games, including 3-7 SU and ATS at home
· The Browns are 14-7-1 Under the total in pre-bye week games since 2002 

Dallas Cowboys Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/13 vs. Detroit Lions
· Dallas has won its last five pre-bye week games ATS overall after a 3-8 ATS skid prior – 4-0 ATS under Mike McCarthy
· The Cowboys are 6-3 Under the total in their last nine pre-bye week games 

Denver Broncos Pre-Bye Week Game: MON 12/2 vs. Cleveland Browns
· Denver is 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 pre-bye week games overall
· Outright winners are on a 17-game ATS winning streak in Denver pre-bye week home games 

Detroit Lions Pre-Bye Week Game: MON 9/30 vs. Seattle Seahawks
· Detroit is on 10-3 Over the total surge in pre-bye week home games but did go Under last year
· Including last year, the Lions have only played two MNF pre-bye week games since 1995, going 2-0 SU and ATS 

Green Bay Packers Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/3 vs. Detroit Lions
· The Packers are 4-1 SU and ATS in pre-bye week games under head coach Matt LaFleur
· Green Bay is on a 15-2 SU and 11-5-1 ATS surge in pre-bye week home games, scoring 30.2 PPG 

Houston Texans Pre-Bye Week Game: 12/1 at Jacksonville Jaguars
· Houston boasts a 14-8 SU and 16-6 ATS record in pre-bye week games since its inception in 2002, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. divisional foes
· Houston has gone 7-1-1 Under the total in its last eight pre-bye week games, combined score 34.1 PPG 

Indianapolis Colts Pre-Bye Week Game: 12/1 at New England Patriots
· Indianapolis is on a 9-2 SU and ATS run in pre-bye week games overall
· The Colts have gone 15-2-1 ATS in pre-bye week road games since 1993, but did lose in 2022 at Dallas, their most recent try

Jacksonville Jaguars Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/17 at Detroit Lions
·The Jaguars are 9-5 SU and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 15 pre-bye week true road games
· Jacksonville is on a 6-1 Under the total surge in pre-week games 

Kansas City Chiefs Pre-Bye Week Game: MON 10/7 vs. New Orleans Saints
· Kansas City has won its last five pre-bye week games, going 4-1 ATS
· The Chiefs are on a 6-0 ATS streak as a pre-bye week single-digit favorite 

Los Angeles Chargers Pre-Bye Week Game: 9/29 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
· The Chargers are just 2-8 SU and 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 pre-bye week games
· While bad overall in pre-bye week games lately, the Chargers are 9-3-1 ATS in that situation in their last 13 versus divisional foes 

Los Angeles Rams Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/6 vs. Green Bay Packers
· The Rams have gone Under the total in eight of their last nine pre-bye week games
· While a big Under team overall, the Rams lean Over the total in home pre-bye week games, 10-3 in the last 13 

Las Vegas Raiders Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/3 at Cincinnati Bengals
· The Raiders are on a 9-5 SU and 9-3-2 ATS run in pre-bye week road games
· The Raiders are on a 7-1 Over the total run in pre-bye week games 

Miami Dolphins Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/6 at New England Patriots
· Miami is 5-1 Under the total in its last six pre-bye week games
· Miami is on a 5-2 SU and ATS run in pre-bye week divisional games 

Minnesota Vikings Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/6 vs. New York Jets (in London)
· Minnesota is on a 7-1 SU and ATS surge in pre-bye week games vs. AFC teams
· The Vikings are on a 12-3 SU and ATS run in pre-bye week games, but did lose last year 

New England Patriots Pre-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. Indianapolis Colts
· The Patriots are on a 6-1 Under the total run in pre-bye week games, scoring just 15.3 PPG
· New England has won its last five pre-bye week games at home, both SU and ATS, and all against non-divisional AFC foes 

New Orleans Saints Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/17 vs. Cleveland Browns
· The Saints have won their last seven pre-bye week home games, going 5-2 ATS
· New Orleans is 4-1 Over the total in its last five pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes, scoring 28.6 PPG 

New York Giants Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/10 vs. Carolina Panthers (in Munich)
· The Giants are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven pre-bye week games as favorites
· The Giants are 7-1 Under the total in their last eight pre-bye week games 

New York Jets Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/17 vs. Indianapolis Colts
· The Jets are on a 4-1 ATS run in pre-bye week games, winning their last two outright
· The Jets are 7-2-1 Over the total in their last 10 pre-bye week games when favored

Philadelphia Eagles Pre-Bye Week Game: 9/29 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
· The Eagles own an eight-game pre-bye week winning streak, both SU and ATS since 2016, and are 13-3 SU and ATS since 2008
· Philadelphia is on a 12-1 SU and ATS surge in pre-bye week games as a favorite, allowing 16.7 PPG

Pittsburgh Steelers Pre-Bye Week Game: MON 10/28 vs. New York Giants
· Pittsburgh is 6-2 Under the total in its last eight pre-bye week home games
· The Steelers have won their last five pre-bye week games as favorites, going 3-2 ATS 

San Francisco 49ers Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/27 vs. Dallas Cowboys
· San Francisco has gone just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in the last six pre-bye week games
· The 49ers are just 5-9-1 ATS in their last 15 pre-bye week home games 

Seattle Seahawks Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
· The Seahawks are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS in pre-bye week games since 2011
· The Seahawks are 8-2 Under the total in their last 10 pre-bye week games, allowing just 14.3 PPG 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/10 vs. San Francisco 49ers
· Tampa Bay has won back-to-back pre-bye week games SU and ATS after brutal 2-10-1 ATS skid prior
· The Buccaneers are 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in the last eight pre-bye week home games 

Tennessee Titans Pre-Bye Week Game: MON 9/30 at Miami Dolphins
· The Titans are 2-7 ATS in their last nine pre-bye week road games, allowing 30+ points five times
· Tennessee has gone 5-10 ATS in its last 15 pre-bye week contests overall 

Washington Commanders Pre-Bye Week Game: 12/1 vs. Tennessee Titans
· Dating back to 1993, Washington is just 10-23-1 ATS in pre-bye week games overall
· Washington has gone just 1-7-1 SU and 2-7 ATS in its last nine pre-bye week games vs. AFC opponents, scoring just 15.6 PPG

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