NFL Preseason Betting Concepts for 2024:

Betting the NFL preseason is an altogether different challenge than the regular season. Teams’ goals in these games are never the same. In any given exhibition, one of the teams may be playing to win and build momentum, while the other may simply be hoping to get through unscathed. If you go through the recent game logs, you’ll see that coaches have different strategies for playing in the preseason. Nevertheless, in any grouping of games that provides enough data, I can always pull out worthwhile nuggets for bettors.

Take a look at eight betting concepts I uncovered after analyzing my preseason database from the last decade or so, plus some of the top team-by-team situational trends that will be in play the next few weeks. 

 

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All of these angles will be tracked and qualified weekly this preseason in our upcoming VSiN NFL Preseason Analytics reports. 

1. LINE RANGES have proven very telling

Oddsmakers have essentially led bettors to water in the preseason, although it is easy to see how these prices can seem tricky. Since 2010, 13 teams have been favored by more than seven points. Nine of these heavy favorites won their games outright, but they were 4-9 ATS (30.8%). At the same time, favorites in the “sweet spot” range of -3.5 to -7 have been quite reliable, going 143-112-4 ATS for 56.1%. However, most games tend to land in the -1 to -3 range, and those are where the underdogs thrive. Since 2015, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range own a highly profitable record of 162-110 ATS, good for 59.6%. On that last angle, underdogs in ’23 went 13-8 ATS.

2. HOME-FIELD advantage usually means very little in tight-lined games

In the last 12 NFL preseasons, home teams finished .500 or better against the spread only twice. Last year, hosts were just 21-27 ATS. If you’re simply guessing on these games, or wagering them for fun, side with the road teams, as the points given to hosts by oddsmakers for their supposed home-field advantage tend to tip the ATS ledger to the visitors. In fact, since 2011, road teams own a 370-328 ATS edge, good for 53%, and essentially enough to make a reasonable profit without any other handicapping considered. However, the absolute best time to back road teams is when they are underdogs of 2.5 points or less, as they have gone 75-38 ATS as such since 2015, good for 66.4%. On cue, these road underdogs in ’23 went 6-3 ATS. 

3. Big wins have a carryover effect

NFL teams coming off preseason wins of 20+ points and favored are on a 23-7 SU and  17-10-2 ATS (63%) surge since 2013. Most bettors tend to favor a yin-yang strategy in the preseason, assuming that the scales balance out, but in truth, big wins have provided big momentum for the next game as well.

4. Teams off double-digit losses are bad bets at home, good on the road

Games with double-digit margins are noteworthy as indicators of the potential performance of the losing team in the follow-up game. When these teams have played at home the following week, they have gone just 34-48 ATS (41.5%) since 2013. When they faced their next game on the road, they have performed well, 53-41 ATS (56.4%) in that same time span, including 7-3 ATS last year. This near-15% variance is something to consider in the final two weeks of this year’s preseason.

5. Teams that scored very well last game tend to come back down to earth

Offensive outbursts one week don’t tend to carry over to the next game in the preseason, as teams that scored 34 points or more in their previous exhibition game have gone just 12-17 SU and 11-17-1 ATS (39.3%) since 2015. Only two of these 29 teams reached 30 again as well.

6. Fade HOME teams that had huge defensive efforts last time out

Teams playing at home after allowing seven points or fewer in their previous preseason game are just 20-28-1 SU and 17-30-2 ATS (36.2%) since ’10. Their average points allowed in the follow-up game balloons to 20.1 PPG, a lofty total by preseason standards.

7. “37” is a MAGIC NUMBER for totals

Since 2010 in the NFL preseason, the number 37 has proved to be quite the benchmark in terms of totals. Totals less than 37 have gone OVER at a rate of 58.9% (279-195), including 10-3 last preseason. Those closing totals of 37 or higher have gone UNDER at a 56.4% clip (527-407).

8. Teams that didn’t score well at all are good OVER bets for the next game

Struggling offenses tend to bounce back in the next outing of the preseason as teams that were held to fewer than 10 points in their previous preseason game have gone 78-57-1 OVER the total (57.8%) in the next one since 2010. These teams average 20.4 PPG in the next contest, while giving up 20.8. If you’re looking for a short-term ATS edge on these teams, they are also on a 13-2 ATS (86.7%) surge heading into ’24.

9. Preseason games between CONFERENCE opponents lean heavily UNDER

Interestingly, dating to September 2015, preseason games between opponents from the same conference have trended heavily UNDER the total, going 56-37 UNDER (60.2%). Just over one-third of preseason games fall into this category. Furthermore, if you add the qualifiers from No. 7 above, preseason games between CONFERENCE opponents with totals of 37 or higher have gone UNDER at a 47-23 rate (67.1%) since September 2015.

Overall Trends

  • ATLANTA is on a 5-18-1 SU and 4-20 ATS skid in the preseason
  • Baltimore has lost its last four preseason games ATS after an incredible 21-1-1 ATS stretch
  • BUFFALO is on a 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS surge in the preseason but is 1-3 ATS in its last four
  • CHICAGO is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in two preseasons under coach Matt Eberflus, not including the storm-shortened ’24 Hall of Fame Game
  • DALLAS is 3-2 SU and ATS in its last five preseason games after going 6-21-3 ATS in its prior 30
  • DENVER is 11-4 UNDER the total in its last 15 preseason games
  • DETROIT is on a 12-4 OVER the total surge in preseason games, allowing 24.9 PPG
  • HOUSTON is on a 9-2 UNDER the total run in preseason games, total point production 32.1 PPG
  • LA RAMS are on a 0-5 SU and ATS preseason skid entering ’24, getting outscored 29.8-12.2 on average
  • LAS VEGAS is on an impressive 12-4 SU and ATS preseason surge
  • MINNESOTA has lost 10 straight preseason games while going 2-8 ATS
  • NEW ENGLAND is on a current 11-4 UNDER the total surge in the preseason
  • NEW ORLEANS has gone 17-6-1 UNDER the total in its last 24 preseason games 
  • NY GIANTS are on an 11-2 OVER the total run, total point production 44.5 PPG
  • The NY JETS are on 9-3-1 SU and 9-4 ATS run in the preseason
  • PHILADELPHIA has gone 3-13-2 SU and 4-13-1 ATS in its last 18 preseason games
  • PITTSBURGH has won its last six preseason games SU and ATS and is 18-4 SU and 16-6 ATS dating to 2017
  • SEATTLE has gone UNDER the total in nine of its last 11 preseason games 

Home/Road Trends

  • ATLANTA is just 2-9-1 SU and 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home preseason games, as well as 10-2 UNDER the total
  • BALTIMORE is currently on a 12-game home preseason winning streak (10-2 ATS) and is 21-3 SU in its last 24
  • BUFFALO has won and covered its last six preseason home games
  • CHICAGO is on an impressive run on 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 road preseason games and is 7-1 OVER the total in its last eight
  • CINCINNATI has gone 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road preseason games but just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 at home
  • CLEVELAND boasts an 9-2-1 SU and 10-2 ATS mark in its last 12 preseason games away from home
  • DALLAS is 1-16 SU and 3-14 ATS on the preseason road since 2012
  • DETROIT is on skids of 1-9 SU and 1-8 ATS in home preseason games
  • GREEN BAY broke a seven-game road preseason losing streak in 2023 but is still 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight such contests
  • HOUSTON has won its last five true road preseason games SU and ATS
  • JACKSONVILLE home preseason games have been a struggle, 8-14 SU and 6-15-1 ATS in its last 22
  • LA CHARGERS are looking to end a 1-10 SU and  2-8-1 ATS skid in preseason home games
  • LAS VEGAS has won its last seven preseason home games SU and ATS, holding opponents to 8.4 PPG
  • NEW ENGLAND is 12-5 UNDER the total in its last 17 preseason road affairs
  • NY JETS have won their last six true road preseason games, both outright and ATS
  • PHILADELPHIA is on a 0-6-1 SU and 0-7 ATS skid at home in the preseason
  • SAN FRANCISCO has gone UNDER the total in seven of its last eight road preseason games
  • SEATTLE is on a 10-1 UNDER the total run in home preseason games
  • Since 2013, TAMPA BAY is just 5-14 SU and 4-15 ATS in home preseason games
  • WASHINGTON is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home preseason games

 Off SU Win/Loss Trends

  • ARIZONA has lost its last five preseason games SU and ATS when coming off a win
  • ATLANTA hasn’t won much in the preseason, but when it has, it is just 1-7-1 SU and 1-8 ATS in the follow-up game
  • CAROLINA is on an 11-4 SU and 11-3-1 ATS run in its last 15 preseason games following a loss the week prior but 2-9 ATS in its last 11 following a win
  • CHICAGO has gone 7-0 OVER the total in its last seven games following up a preseason loss
  • CLEVELAND is on crazy 13-2 UNDER the total surge in preseason games following a win the week prior, allowing just 15.1 PPG
  • DALLAS is 5-15-2 ATS in the last 22 preseason games after a loss
  • DETROIT has gone 10-0 OVER the total in its last 10 games following a preseason loss
  • HOUSTON is 9-1 SU and ATS in its last 10 games rebounding from a preseason loss
  • MIAMI has rebounded from its last five preseason losses with resounding SU and ATS wins, average margin of victory 25.0 PPG
  • The last six NY GIANTS preseason games following an outright win have gone OVER the total, producing 52.3 PPG
  • NEW ORLEANS has gone UNDER the total in nine of its last 10 games following a preseason win
  • WASHINGTON has gone 8-1 UNDER the total in its last nine games following up a preseason loss

 Favorite/Underdog Trends

  • ATLANTA is on a 1-8 ATS skid as a preseason favorite
  • BUFFALO is on a 9-1 SU and ATS surge as a preseason underdog
  • CHICAGO is 14-4 ATS since ’15 as a preseason underdog
  • CINCINNATI is on a 9-2 ATS surge as a preseason underdog but is 2-7 ATS as chalk
  • CLEVELAND is 8-0-1 ATS since ’17 as a preseason underdog but 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a favorite
  • DALLAS is on a 4-11-3 ATS skid as a preseason favorite
  • GREEN BAY has lost seven straight games SU as preseason dog (0-6-1 ATS)
  • INDIANAPOLIS is on an 8-0-3 ATS surge as a preseason underdog
  • LA RAMS have covered just once in their last 10 preseason games as favorites
  • NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 UNDER the total in its last 15 as a preseason underdog
  • NEW ORLEANS is 2-8 SU and ATS in its last 10 as preseason underdog
  • NY GIANTS are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 as preseason underdogs but 1-9 ATS in their last 10 as favorites
  • PITTSBURGH is 9-2 SU and ATS in its last 11 as a preseason underdog
  • SAN FRANCISCO is on a 6-0-1 ATS streak as a preseason underdog

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