NFL Preseason Betting Concepts to Consider for 2025:

Betting the NFL preseason is an altogether different challenge from the regular season. The goals teams share in these games are never the same. In any given exhibition, one of the teams may be playing to win and build momentum, while the other may be simply hoping to get through unscathed. If you go through recent game logs, you’ll even see that certain coaches seem to believe in different strategies for playing in the preseason. Nevertheless, given any grouping of games that provides enough data, I can always pull out worthwhile nuggets for bettors to use.

 

Take a look at nine betting concepts I uncovered after analyzing my preseason database from the last decade or so, plus some of the top team-by-team situational trends that will be in play for the next few weeks. 

Before digging in too deep, however, it should be noted that last year was a very definitive NFL exhibition season in terms of betting trends, as underdogs went 25-23-1 SU and 32-17 ATS and Unders were 31-18. If you caught the Hall of Fame Game last Thursday, note that the underdog won and covered that game as well.

All of these angles will be tracked and qualified weekly this NFL preseason in our upcoming VSiN NFL Preseason Analytics reports, the first of which will be out Wednesday evening to cover the full slate of games this weekend. We will essentially tell you which teams apply for each system that week.

1. Line ranges have been very telling

Oddsmakers have essentially led bettors to water in the preseason, although it is easy to see how these prices can seem tricky. Since 2010, 16 teams have been favored by more than seven points. Ten of these heavy favorites won their games outright; however, they were 5-11 ATS (31.3%). At the same time, favorites in the “sweet spot” range of -3.5 to -7 have been quite reliable, going 151-126-4 ATS for 54.5%. Most games, however, tend to land in the -1 to -3 range, and those are where the underdogs thrive. Since 2015, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range own a highly profitable record of 178-116 ATS, good for 60.5%! On that last angle, underdogs in 2024 went 16-8 ATS. 

2. Home-field advantage usually means very little in tight-lined games

In the last 13 NFL preseasons, home teams have finished with a record of better than .500 ATS just three times. Last year was one of those, though hosts were just 25-23 ATS. If you’re simply guessing on these games, or wagering for fun, side with the road teams, as the points given to hosts by oddsmakers for their “home-field advantage” tend to tip the ATS ledger to the visitors. In fact, since 2011, road teams own a 393-353 ATS edge, good for 52.7%, and essentially enough to make a profit without any other handicapping considered. However, the absolute best time to back road teams is when they are underdogs of 2.5 points or less, as they have gone 79-41 ATS as such since 2015, good for 65.8%! These road underdogs had one of their lesser seasons in 2024 but still produced a 4-3 ATS record.

3. Big wins have a carryover effect

NFL teams coming off preseason wins of 20+ points and favored are on a 26-7 SU and 20-10-2 ATS (66.7%) surge since 2013. Most bettors tend to favor a yin-yang strategy in the preseason, assuming that the scales balance out, but in truth, big wins have provided big momentum for the next game as well. On cue, these teams enjoyed a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS record last season.

4. Teams off double-digit losses are bad bets at home, good on the road

Double-digit games are noteworthy as indicators of the potential performance of the losing team in the follow-up game. When these teams have played at home the following week, they have gone just 37-53 ATS (41.1%) since 2013. When their next game was on the road, they have performed well, 56-42 ATS (57.1%) in that same period, including 3-1 ATS last year. This 16% variance is something to consider in the final two weeks of this year’s preseason, or I suppose, with the Lions (-3) this week at Atlanta.

5. Teams that scored very well in the last game tend to come back to earth

Offensive outbursts one week don’t tend to carry over to the next game in the preseason, as teams that scored 34 points or more in their previous exhibition game have gone just 13-17 SU and 12-17-1 ATS (41.4%) since 2015. Only two of these 30 teams reached 30 again as well.

6. Fade home teams that had huge defensive efforts last time out

Teams playing at home after allowing seven points or fewer in their previous preseason game are just 22-30-1 SU and 20-31-2 ATS (39.2%) since 2010. Their average points allowed in the follow-up game balloons to 19.7 PPG, a total that exceeds usual preseason standards by about 0.5 PPG.

7. “37” is a magic number for totals

Since 2010 in the NFL preseason, the number 37 has proved to be quite the benchmark in terms of totals. Totals less than 37 have gone Over at a rate of 56.9% (303-229) but were 34-24 Under in a very low-scoring 2024 preseason. Those closing totals of 37 or higher have gone Under at a 57% clip (555-419), including 28-12 last year.

8. Teams that didn’t score well at all are good Over bets in the next game

Struggling offenses tend to bounce back well in the next outing of the preseason as teams that were held to fewer than 10 points in their previous preseason game have gone 87-62-1 Over the total (58.4%) in the next game since 2010. These teams average 20.2 PPG in the next contest, while giving up 20.6. If you’re looking for a short-term ATS edge on these teams, they are also on a current 21-8 ATS (72.4%) surge heading into 2025.

9. Preseason games between conference opponents lean heavily Under 

Interestingly, dating to September 2015, preseason games between opponents from the same conference have trended heavily Under the total, going 64-39 Under (62.1%). Just over one-third of preseason games fall into this category. Furthermore, if you add the qualifiers from No. 7 above to that time, preseason games between conference opponents with totals of 37 or higher have gone Under at a 52-24 rate (68.4%) since September 2015.

— ATLANTA is on a 5-21-1 SU and 5-22 ATS skid in the preseason

— BALTIMORE has lost its last seven preseason games ATS after an incredible 21-1-1 ATS stretch

— BUFFALO is on a 13-4 SU and ATS surge in the preseason

— CHICAGO went 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in three preseasons under coach Matt Eberflus but now turns to Ben Johnson.

— CINCINNATI has struggled to a 3-13-1 SU and 7-10 ATS record in its last 17 preseason games.

— Outright winners are on an incredible 36-1-1 ATS run in DENVER preseason games

— DETROIT is on a 17-6 Over the total surge in preseason games, allowing 24.3 PPG. This includes the 34-7 Hall of Fame loss to the Chargers.

— HOUSTON is on a 12-3 Under the total run in preseason games, total point production 32.9 PPG

— INDIANAPOLIS is on a 12-5 Over the total run in preseason action, total point production 41.3 PPG

— JACKSONVILLE has put together back-to-back perfect exhibition seasons, 6-0 SU and ATS while outscoring opponents 26.8-11.3

— MIAMI has gone 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS in its last 17 preseason games

— NEW ENGLAND is on a current 14-4 Under the total surge in the preseason

— NEW ORLEANS has gone 19-7-1 Under the total in its last 27 preseason tilts

— The NY GIANTS are 4-5 SU but just 1-8 ATS in three preseasons under coach Brian Daboll

— The NY JETS are on a 12-3-1 SU and 12-4 ATS run in the preseason

— PHILADELPHIA has gone 5-14-2 SU and 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 preseason games but did turn it around last year with a 2-1 SU and ATS mark

— PITTSBURGH lost all three preseason games last year SU and ATS, ending an 18-4 SU and 16-6 ATS run

— SEATTLE has gone Under the total in 11 of its last 14 preseason games

— ATLANTA is just 2-10-1 SU and 1-12 ATS in its last 13 home preseason games, as well as 11-2 Under the total, scoring just 10 PPG

— BALTIMORE is 22-4 SU in its last 26 home preseason games but has lost its last four ATS

— BUFFALO is on a 7-1 ATS surge in preseason home games

— CHICAGO is on an impressive run on 10-3-1 ATS in last 14 road preseason games, and is 9-1 Over the total in its last 10

— CINCINNATI has gone 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road preseason games but just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 at home

— CLEVELAND boasts a 9-3-1 SU and 11-2 ATS mark in its last 13 preseason games on the road but is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven at home

— DALLAS is 2-17 SU and 4-15 ATS on the preseason road since 2012

— DENVER has won seven straight home preseason games while going 6-1 ATS

— DETROIT is on skids of 2-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in home preseason games

— GREEN BAY is on a 14-4 SU and ATS run in preseason games at Lambeau Field

— HOUSTON has won its last six true road preseason games SU and ATS, holding opponents to 12.5 PPG

— JACKSONVILLE has been a tremendous road preseason team, 14-5 ATS in its last 19

— LA CHARGERS are looking to end a 1-12 SU and 2-10-1 ATS skid in preseason home games

— LAS VEGAS is on a 7-1-1 SU and 8-1 ATS preseason home game surge, holding opponents to 12.2 PPG

— NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 Under the total in its last 18 preseason road affairs

— NEW ORLEANS enters the 2025 exhibition season on a 10-3 Under run on the road

— NY JETS have won their last seven true road preseason games, both outright and ATS

— PHILADELPHIA is on a 0-7-1 SU and 0-8 ATS skid at home in the preseason

— SEATTLE is on a 10-2 Under the total run in home preseason games

— TAMPA BAY has gone Over the total in the last five home preseason games but Under the total in the last five on the road

— ARIZONA has lost its last five preseason games SU and ATS when coming off a win

— ATLANTA hasn’t won much in the preseason, but when it has, it is just 1-9-1 SU and 1-10 ATS in the follow-up game

— CAROLINA is on a 2-9 ATS skid in the last 11 preseason games following a win

— CHICAGO has gone 7-0 Over the total in the last seven games following a preseason loss

— CLEVELAND is on a crazy 13-2 Under the total surge in preseason games after a win, allowing just 15.1 PPG

— DALLAS is 6-15-2 ATS in the last 23 preseason games after a loss

— DETROIT has gone 11-0 Over the total in its last 11 games after a preseason loss

— GREEN BAY has lost its last five preseason games after a win, both SU and ATS, while scoring 9.8 PPG

— HOUSTON is 11-1 SU and ATS in the last 12 games rebounding from a preseason loss

— INDIANAPOLIS has followed up its last five preseason wins with another win, both SU and ATS

— MIAMI has rebounded from its last five preseason losses with resounding SU and ATS wins, average margin of victory 25.0 PPG!

— The last six NY GIANTS preseason games following an outright win have gone Over the total, producing 52.3 PPG

— NEW ORLEANS has gone Under the total in 10 of its last 11 games after a preseason win

— WASHINGTON has gone 10-1 Under the total in its last 11 games after a preseason loss

— ATLANTA is on a 1-9 ATS skid as a preseason favorite, also 8-2 Under the total in that role

— BUFFALO is on a 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS surge as a preseason underdog

— CHICAGO is 16-4 ATS since 2015 as a preseason underdog

— CINCINNATI is on a 9-2 ATS surge as a preseason underdog but is 2-7 ATS as chalk

— CLEVELAND is 9-0-1 ATS since 2017, as well as 14-3-1 ATS in the last 18 as a preseason underdog but 1-8 ATS in the last nine as a favorite

— DALLAS is on a 4-13-3 ATS skid as a preseason favorite

— DENVER is 13-4 SU and 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 as a preseason favorite

— DETROIT is on a 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS slide as preseason chalk

— GREEN BAY has lost eight of its last nine games SU as preseason dog (1-7-1 ATS), but is 13-3 SU and ATS as a favorite since 2014

— INDIANAPOLIS is on a 9-0-3 ATS surge as a preseason underdog. The Colts are also 9-1 Over the total in the last 10 as preseason favorite

— LA RAMS have covered just once in the last 10 preseason games as favorites

— LAS VEGAS is on a 6-1 ATS run as an exhibition underdog

— NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 Under the total in the last 15 as a preseason underdog

— NEW ORLEANS is 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a preseason underdog

— NY GIANTS are 16-7 ATS in last 23 as preseason underdogs but 2-10 ATS in its last 12 as favorites

— NY JETS have converted eight of their last nine ATS as preseason underdogs

— PHILADELPHIA is on a 1-6 ATS skid when laying points in the preseason

— PITTSBURGH is 9-3 SU and ATS in its last 12 as a preseason underdog

— SAN FRANCISCO is on an 8-0-1 ATS streak as a preseason underdog

— SEATTLE has dropped five in a row SU and ATS as a preseason dog

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