NFL Preseason Betting Splits Systems for 2025:
For the last 2 1/2 years or so, I have been tracking the results of the betting majorities at DraftKings according to the “splits” they provide to VSiN on a daily basis. This has been for virtually all of the sports that VSiN covers. To put the findings in simple terms, in most cases majority bettors at DraftKings are not successful. In fact, because of the market that DK serves, I would venture to say that their customer base is about as “public” as it comes. Anyone who has been around sports betting circles for the last 25 years or so, like I have, knows that fading the public consistently might be one of the only long-running strategies that consistently produces profits. There have been certain situations in each of the sports where these majorities have won. But overall, I would have to testify that they don’t.
Last year, I thought I would add NFL preseason football to the study groupl. Now that I have two full years of data, I added last year’s game results to those of 2023 and analyzed them against the splits. To summarize the findings, majority bettors have been terrible! And as always, I will be using these findings over the next few weeks in our NFL Preseason Analytics Reports to point out spots in which bettors are backing teams, hoping of course, the struggles continue.
Now, keep in mind that this data sample is much smaller than those I have studied for college and pro football, MLB, and basketball. However, it is also much more defined. Take a look at the overall results from the 98 games of the 2023 and 2024 NFL preseasons:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 37-55 ATS (40.2%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 41-56 ATS (42.3%)
– Majority handle on totals: 43-51 (45.7%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 50-46 (52.1%)
As you can see, in three of the four categories, the majority saw noteworthy losses. Simply fading the majorities would be a worthwhile strategy should it continue. Interestingly, in the only category in which majorities have won, it has been because they went completely against their usual patterns. That is, the majority bets groups on totals actually sided with Unders last year, at a 45-4 ratio! That is unheard of in the history of me studying this subject, and fortunately for them, Unders hit at a 31-18 clip in the 2024 preseason. We’ll see if it continues this year. However, as always, I like to dig deeper, so I did and came up with some even more defined angles. You will find those at the end of this article.
Without further ado, here are the DK Betting Splits NFL Preseason Systems and their 2023-24 performance records that we will be posting and tracking over the next few weeks in the VSiN NFL Preseason Analytics Reports. Use these in conjunction with the other great handicapping trends and systems to make this your best preseason of betting ever:
We’ll start out with the first three systems by simply fading all of the majorities as described earlier:
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #1: Looking back at the 2023-24 NFL preseasons, majority handle bettors on sides have gone just 37-55 ATS (40.2%). Until proven otherwise, any August majority handle in the NFL should be faded.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #2: For the 2023-24 NFL preseasons, majority bets groups on sides were just 41-56 ATS (42.3%). This is another majority group that should be faded until further notice.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #3: Looking back at the 2023-24 NFL preseasons, majority handle bettors on totals were just 43-51 ATS (45.7%). While not as bad as the side percentages, it is still a continued fade opportunity in 2025.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority handle backed either team in a 2023-24 preseason game that had a point spread with one team favored by 3 points or higher, that majority group went just 23-40 ATS (36.5%). This is a noticeable drop off from the 40.2% overall win rate in system #1, so it is worth further consideration.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of number of bets backed a 2023-24 NFL preseason team in a game with a point spread of 2.5 points or lower, that group was just 10-21 ATS (32%). This is over 10% worse than the overall bets majority win rate. Look to fade the majority number of bettors in expected tight games this month.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was 60% or greater on any team in the 2023-24 NFL preseasons, that group went 22-34 ATS (39.3%). These bigger majorities also lost more than the overall groups.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #7: Over the last two preseasons, in games between conference opponents, majority handle and number of bets bettors have gone just 9-16 ATS (36%) when backing one of the teams. Most preseason games are non-conference matchups. This is another opportunity to fade majorities at a higher success rate.
Were there any systems in the 2023-24 NFL preseasons in which majorities actually won? YES! Here are those two spots:
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #8: For the 3+ week 2024 NFL preseason majority bets groups on totals were 30-16 ATS (65.2%), when favoring Unders on total. This was actually a massive win for majority groups, and I’m willing to endorse it since it goes so much against the grain.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority of the handle backed either team in a 2024 preseason game that saw a line move of 3 points or more from open to close, that group was 12-6 ATS (66.7%), a very strong return. It’s rare for bettors to trust the oddsmakers. When they did last year, they won.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #10: In the 2023-24 NFL preseasons, majority handle and number of bets bettors at DraftKings were 13-10 (56.5%) on totals in conference games. Not spectacular, but a profitable opportunity.
