NFL Preseason Picks
Key Highlights:
- Rams vs. Browns
- Broncos vs. Saints
- Seahawks vs. Packers
Remember the good old days when NFL Preseason Week 3 was a dress rehearsal for the regular season because Week 4 was when all the starters sat? Well, some teams are going to use Week 3 of the preseason as a tune-up for the regular season, while others are just going to plan on getting to Week 1 as healthy as possible.
Take, for example, the Browns, who will be deploying starting QB Joe Flacco against the Rams, who never play their starters in the preseason. Cleveland is -7.5 in that one, which is one of the bigger preseason lines that I can remember. The Giants are -6.5 against the Patriots on Thursday night in another game that saw a massive move on the spread.
As usual, it has been a race to the news to try and figure out who will play and for how long. Also, we’re pretty much back to normalcy with the totals, as the Bears and Chiefs are up in the 40s, but no other game was there as of Wednesday morning.
Also, be sure to look at our NFL Pro Picks page for the latest from our VSiN experts and on-air guests. Also, check out some NFL Preseason betting tips and this year’s NFL Preseason QB Depth Charts.
With that in mind, let’s look at a few games that could have some betting opportunities.
Here are some NFL Preseason Week 3 picks:
Odds as of Wednesday, August 20at 10:00 a.m. PT
Los Angeles Rams at Cleveland Browns (-7.5, 39.5)
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
Attendance at preseason games can be hit or miss, but there should be a lot of butts in orange seats on Saturday when the Browns play their one and only home preseason game. The Rams will be out on the road for the first time and they have to go all the way to Cleveland to do it, so that’s probably another reason why this line looks the way it does.
Nevertheless, Stetson Bennett has played the entirety of both Rams preseason games and he’s played very well, including a game-winning TD drive last week against the Chargers. The Rams have scored 54 points in their two preseason games with him at the helm, as he’s 44-of-64 for 512 yards with five touchdowns and a couple of picks. Even though Flacco is playing on offense, and presumably some of the other starters, some of Cleveland’s key defenders are banged up and others are guys you don’t want to put at risk.
We’ll see who is healthy enough to play at QB for Cleveland on Saturday, but there’s some incentive for Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees to let the fans get a little bit excited about Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders if both can go. Both Gabriel and Sanders have looked pretty promising in their game action. Stefanski is great at scripted drives, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Flacco go down the field.
It will be a picture-perfect day in The Land with minimal wind next to Lake Erie. That should help both offenses and the QBs should rule the day.
Pick: Over 39.5
Denver Broncos (-5.5, 39.5) at New Orleans Saints
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
The Broncos head to the Big Easy for their preseason finale against the Saints. Suffice it to say that NFL Preseason Week 3 is a much bigger one for the Saints than it is for the Broncos. First-year head coach Kellen Moore still needs to figure out who his starting QB will be, as Spencer Rattler started Week 1 and Tyler Shough started Week 2. Neither guy has been impressive and Jake Haener has fallen by the wayside.
The Broncos can play free and easy this week. Bo Nix is the starter, Jarrett Stidham is the backup, and Sam Ehlinger will be QB3, so long as the Broncos keep him on the roster as opposed to trying to sneak him through to the practice squad.
All of the reports on Nix in camp have been good. Stidham is 30-of-38 for 376 yards with a 4/0 TD/INT ratio in preseason action. Ehlinger is 20-of-26 for 217 yards and a TD with zero picks. Sean Payton has this team, and more importantly, this offense, locked in. The Saints QB room is going to play tight in this one with the Week 1 gig on the line and they’ll do so against a deep and talented defense, even if the starters don’t play for long.
The increased price to lay on the Broncos seems more than justified here.
Pick: Broncos -5.5
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 37.5)
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
The Seahawks are also taking a fairly long road trip as they visit Lambeau Field to face the Packers. My late friend Brian Blessing used to refer to banged-up teams as a MASH unit and that’s precisely what the Packers are right now. Jordan Love is still rehabbing his left thumb injury, leaving Malik Willis, Sean Clifford, and Taylor Elgersma at the QB position.
Collectively, Green Bay QBs, including a 1-of-5 for seven yards from Love in the preseason opener, are 24-of-51 for 261 yards with zero TDs and zero interceptions. The Packers have relied heavily on the running game, but Emanuel Wilson, Israel Abanikanda, and MarShawn Lloyd are all dealing with various injuries. The Packers have 4.6 yards per carry in the preseason, but I can’t see those numbers with the lack of depth that they have right now.
Sam Darnold may or may not play, but he was 4-of-4 for 34 yards against the Chiefs last week, as the Seahawks racked up 477 yards of offense. They didn’t give up any sacks, ran 30 more plays than KC, and Drew Lock has been solid this postseason. Given that Seattle hasn’t played their starters very much, all of their skill position stats are from guys that are further down the depth chart and are vying for opportunities either here or elsewhere.
Green Bay just wants to get out of this game healthy in my opinion, whereas all levels of the Seattle offense are humming under Klint Kubiak and the defense should keep improving under head coach Mike Macdonald.
Pick: Seahawks +1.5
