Week 1 Preseason Picks:
- Chargers vs. Texans
- Broncos vs. Falcons
- Vikings vs. Giants
The Hall of Fame Game will be a tough act to follow, as many are calling that Panthers vs. Cardinals matchup The Best Preseason Game Ever. Haynes King’s last-second touchdown scamper capped off a 33-30 win for Carolina in what also became one of the The Great Moments in Gambling History, as the underdog Cardinals were seconds away from a win. No offense to the HOF Game, though, as many will still consider these Week 1 preseason matchups as the true start of the exhibition season.
Those looking for some more general NFL preseason betting tips can check those out, plus Matt Youmans has shared some of his own thoughts and the preseason QB depth charts. That is obviously a huge resource, given that the starters may only play a quarter or part of a quarter this week for most teams, if they play at all.
With six games on Thursday, three on Friday, and seven on Saturday, bettors will have plenty of time to dig for news and find their favorite preseason plays.
Also, be sure to look at our NFL Pro Picks page for the latest from our VSiN experts and on-air guests. Also, check out some NFL Preseason betting tips and this year’s NFL Preseason QB Depth Charts.
Here are some NFL Preseason Week 1 picks:
Odds as of Tuesday, August 11 at 11:55 p.m. PT
Chargers vs. Texans Prediction
Thursday, 8 p.m. ET
Pick: Under 36.5 (+100)
It has been a rough start to camp for both offenses based on the reports from the Cole Haans on the ground. Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans said that a “select group” will not play on Thursday. The Chargers, meanwhile, have already been battling some offensive line absences and are trying to figure out who the starter will be a left guard, so a lot of guys could be rotating in with that position group.
I can’t imagine first-year OC Mike McDaniel is going to want to pull anything out of his bag of tricks here. In fact, one of the focal points of camp so far has been getting the pulling linemen out in front to block for screen passes. That seems to have been an area of concern thus far, so there is definitely an increased chance for negative plays, especially from a deep Texans defense, even if the starters aren’t out there.
We’re also likely to see a steady diet of Graham Mertz and DJ Uiagalelei, so that’s probably good for an Under. It will be Uiagalelei for the Chargers, who no longer have the services of preseason legend Easton Stick. DJU was 19-of-35 for 244 yards last preseason with a 2/1 TD/INT ratio. Mertz was actually 14-of-16 in the third week of the preseason for 145 yards, but he did throw three interceptions in just 14 pass attempts in his Week 1 relief outing last preseason.
Broncos vs. Falcons Prediction
Friday, 7 p.m. ET
Pick: Falcons +5.5 (-108)
The Kevin Stefanski era in Atlanta begins with preseason action, as the Broncos visit the Peach State. Bettors seem very willing to back Sam Ehlinger here, as he had a pretty heavy workload last preseason with 57 pass attempts and over 400 yards through the air. He also had a handful of carries for 34 yards. Ehlinger and Jarrett Stidham seem to be locked in something of a battle for the backup spot, so it makes sense that Broncos money would hit the board.
But, Cooper Rush is no slouch on the Atlanta side. Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. have both been limited a bit in the preseason, but Rush has been getting a lot of reps in Stefanski and Alex Van Pelt’s offense. To be honest, Rush may represent the best QB Stefanski has had outside of Baker Mayfield.
Stefanski kept DC Jeff Ulbrich on the staff, so there should be a lot of continuity and carryover for the defense. Also, you hate to think about things like this in a handicapping context when it is a real-life tragedy and extremely sad event, but Ulbrich’s wife, Christina, passed away earlier in training camp after a long battle with cancer. You’d like to think his unit will go out there and put forth a spirited effort and make his work with the team amidst devastating circumstances mean a little something more.
Plus, the Falcons are at home as they usher in a new era and they’d likely be thrilled to put forth a strong performance. Meanwhile, Sean Payton’s Broncos have been dealing with a slew of soft tissue injuries in camp and I can’t imagine he’s going to want to put too many people at risk. The Broncos also have some injury issues on the offensive line, especially at the center position.
Vikings vs. Giants Prediction
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
Pick: Vikings -1.5 (-108)
John Harbaugh certainly has a reputation for being a stellar preseason coach and a cash cow. Maybe he’ll continue that with the Giants, but this is a much different team and organization than the Ravens. Baltimore has always drafted and developed well, plus they’ve isolated the right free agents to fit when they do have to replace guys. The Giants are still trying to get to that point.
Harbaugh is 47-17 SU in the preseason and you would think that heading to a new team would have bettors looking to back him. Maybe it will come as we approach kickoff, but his Giants are a home underdog here against the Vikings and Kevin O’Connell, who hasn’t really shown a propensity for putting emphasis on the preseason with a 4-8 SU record.
Nevertheless, Minnesota has one of the deepest QB rooms in the league with newly-minted starter Kyler Murray, backup J.J. McCarthy, veteran Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer, who got some uninspiring looks during the regular season last year, including a four-interception game against the Seahawks. However, he held his own in the preseason. Third-string vets like Wentz probably aren’t going to be practice squad material, so these are guys with incentive to go out and play well in hopes of getting traded to be a backup. Similarly, his current team is looking to get something for his services, even if it’s just a late-round pick.
Harbaugh and the Giants are doing all kinds of new installations, while everything is basically status quo for the Vikings. RB Demond Claiborne has looked really good in camp and there are some intriguing position battles on the two-deep on defense, as the starters are mostly set, but the backups are not.
